Assessment of influence in non-linear measurement error models

We consider the assessment of outliers and influential observation in non-linear measurement error models. Residuals, leverage measures and case-deletiondiagonostics are examined. The method of local influence is also applied to the models. In particular, the perturbation of measurement error variances has been found useful in assessing the adequancy of the model assumptions. A numerical example is given to illustrate the application of the diagonostics.     

利用孔板及均速管进行空气-水两相流单双参数测量研究

本文利用孔板及均速管的组合对空气-水两相流的流量及质量含气率进行了单、双参数测量研究,给出了两种元件的单参数公式及其双参数组合公式。对3种不同孔径的孔板、4组孔板及均速管间距以及两种型号的均速管进行了研究,获得了比较满意的结果。     

文明城市创建是构建和谐社会的有效途径

创建文明城市是构建社会主义和谐社会的具体实践,文明城市不等同于和谐社会,但最接近和谐社会,文明城市蕴含了新的城市社会和谐目标的价值取向。广州市越秀区在创建文明城市,促进和谐社会的构建中取得了较好的成绩。     

先进性教育是构建民族地区和谐社会的强大动力

当前正在各地开展的保持共产党员先进性教育活动,对于推动民族工作和促进民族地区 的发展至关重要,必将成为构建民族地区和谐社会的强大动力。按照胡锦涛总书记讲话的精 神,构建社会主义和谐社会,是党从全面建设小康社会、开创中国特色社会主义事业新局面的 全局出发提出的一项重大任务。在构建社会主义和谐社会的伟大事业中,民族地区占有重要 和突出的地位。 第一,只有民族地区建成了和谐社会,全国的和谐社会才有基础和保证,才能够说全国建 成了和谐社会。民族地区幅员占全国总面积的64%以上,人口达数亿,其中少数…     

克隆人技术应用的“能做”与“应做”

本文基于哲学的维度 ,以对人的解读为切入点 ,在工具理性与价值理性的紧张中 ,分析克隆人技术应用的“能做”与“应做”,反思并祛魅工具理性 ,寻求价值理性与工具理性的统一。笔者认为 :在严格的意义上人是不可被复制的 ,克隆人技术至多只是开辟了人类繁衍、自身生命再生产的一个新途径 ;工具理性并不能从根本上解决人性与社会问题 ;试图在基因层次上确定“完人”终极标准的努力既不现实 ,又十分危险 ;克隆人技术及其应用作为一种工具理性 ,必须有其目的性价值 ;在对克隆人技术及其应用采取理性谨慎态度的同时 ,应当对探究科学未知活动给予社会宽容。     

The current state of the labor queue: National and regional Evidence

We employ vector autoregressive techniques to determine the current state of the labor queue. Unemployment rate differentials have narrowed in recent years, potentially due to a change in the queue ordering, though a tight labor market and a stable queue would yield similar results. We find no evidence that the queue ordering has changed, which brings into question the resiliency of gains made by minority groups. We employ the same techniques to reveal the state of the queue across geographic regions and find that substantial differences exist across regions, implying variation in the relative labor force status of demographic groups.     

全要素生产率变动的分解——基于Malmquist生产力指数的实证分析

一、引言关于全要素生产率(TFP)的讨论,是当今经济学界的热门话题。对它的研究已经成为应用经济学领域中十分活跃的分支。全要素生产率(TFP)的最初研究开始于丁伯根(1942)和索洛(1985)在新古典的框架下研究“索洛余值”对增长的贡献。后来大量关于全要素生产率的研究中,Fare(1985,1989,1994)以及coelli(1996)发展了全要素生产率变动的测量方法,并进行了卓有成效的经验分析。目前对全国特别是各省区市全要素生产率的计算,已经有许多研究成果发表,这方面的代表性文献是支道隆(1997)、Fleisher and Chen(1997)、李京文(1998)、张军和施少华…     

短波近红外光谱的盐酸环丙沙星粉末药品的定量分析

利用漫反射法获得环丙沙星短波近红外光谱(700-1100nm),采用化学计量学中的偏最小二乘法(PLS),选取不同的波长范围及不同的光谱预处理方法(一阶导数和和二阶导数)对光谱进行信息提取和分析,对盐酸环丙沙星粉末药品进行了无损非破坏定量分析,以样品中盐酸环丙沙星为活性成分建立了最佳的数学校正模型。讨论了主成分数对PLS模型定量预测能力的影响,并做了比较。     

大学主体性的失落与建立现代大学制度

大学主体性的失落是当前大学危机的根源所在,其深层的本质在于学术自由精神的丧失。面对当前大学的危机与困境,学术自由应突破外部的社会限制和内部大学主体自身的限制,应以大学学术自由的理想为指针,结合大学的实际情况,积极构建具有我国特色的现代大学制度。     

Bayesian analysis of a marked point process: Application in seismic hazard assessment

Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data, complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems.