Asia's population and development in retrospect and prospect

By 1989 Asia's population will reach 3 billion. That Asia's countries can change the course of population development has been shown by China, whose population growth rate has decreased to 1.2%. 58% of the world's population in 1985 was Asian, and 53% of it was concentrated in 11 Asian countries, of which 37.6% was accounted for by India and China. Asia's population density is 3 times the world average, and the number of persons sustained by a square kilometer of land in Asia is 2.5 times the world average. Asia's population is young (median age 20.3), which means a high dependency burden, a large number of women of childbearing age, and low quality of life, as measured by infant mortality, life expectancy, and literacy. Rapid population growth ensures a low rate of development. Asia's goals are to achieve a 1% growth rate by year 2000, zero population growth and replacement level by 2015 for East Asia and 2020 for South Asia. The World Bank estimates that Asia's population will not stabilize until the end of the 21st century, by which time it will have reached 6 billion. Asia must find a way of achieving both population control and economic development. 5 recommendations are made to the Asian Forum of Parliamentarians on Population and Development (AFPPD): 1) that the AFPPD sponsor the activities of "the Day of 3 billion"; 2) that seminars and conferences on population be held among Asian nations; 3) that high-fertility countries adopt late marriages, few births, and programs for maternal and child health; 4) that organizations for family planning be strengthened and given the resources to upgrade the status of women; and 5) that international cooperation in the area of population be intensified.     

Characteristics of Older Adult Problem Gamblers Calling a Gambling Helpline

Background Few investigations have characterized groups of older adults with gambling problems, and published reports are currently limited by small samples of older adult problem gamblers. Gambling helplines represent a widespread mechanism for assisting problem gamblers to move into treatment settings. Given data from older adult problem gamblers in treatment, we hypothesized that older as compared with younger adult problem gamblers calling a gambling helpline would be less likely to report gambling-related problems.Design and methods Logistic regression analyses were performed on data obtained from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2001, inclusive, from callers with gambling problems (N = 1,084) contacting the Connecticut Council on Problem Gambling Helpline.Results Of the 1,018 phone calls used in the logistic regression analyses, 168 (16.5%) were from older adults and 850 (83.5%) from younger adults. Age-related differences were observed in demographic features, types and patterns of gambling reported as problematic, gambling-related problems and psychiatric symptoms, substance use problems, patterns of indebtedness, and family histories of addictive disorders. Older as compared with younger adult problem gamblers were more likely to report having lower incomes, longer durations of gambling, fewer types of problematic gambling, and problems with casino slot machine gambling and less likely to report gambling-related anxiety, family problems, illegal behaviors and arrests, drug problems, indebtedness to bookies or acquaintances, family histories of drug abuse, and problems with casino table gambling.Conclusions Older as compared with younger adult problem gamblers calling a gambling helpline differ on many clinically relevant features. The findings suggest the need for improved and unique prevention and treatment strategies for older adults with gambling problems.     

Correlates of physical activity in a community sample of older adults in Appalachia

Although much has been learned about the global determinants of physical activity in adults, there has been a lack of specific focus on gender, age, and urban/rural differences. In this church-based community sample of Appalachian adults (N = 1,239), the primary correlates of physical activity included age, gender, obesity, and self-efficacy. Overall, 42% of all participants and 31% of adults age 65 years or older met recommended guidelines for physical activity, which suggests that most participants do not engage in adequate levels of physical activity. Of participants who met physical activity guidelines, the most common modes of moderate and vigorous activity were walking briskly or uphill, heavy housework or gardening, light strength training, and biking. These particular activities that focus on building self-efficacy might be viable targets for intervention among older adults in rural communities.     

The declining significance of race among American men during The latter half of the twentieth century

The extent to which racial minority groups face discrimination in the labor market is the subject of considerable debate. Using William J. Wilson's thesis of the declining significance of race as our theoretical context, we provide further empirical evidence about labor market discrimination by investigating wages among African American, American Indian, Chinese American, Hispanic white, Japanese American, and non-Hispanic white men. We find, during the period before the civil rights movement, that a substantively significant wage disadvantage is evident for these minority groups with controls for observed labor force characteristics. In recent data, these net disadvantages are reduced substantially for each of these groups except Hispanics. With the exception of Hispanics, the results support Wilson's thesis.     

Test of parameter changes in a class of observation-driven models for count time series

Abstract

This paper investigates the parameter-change tests for a class of observation-driven models for count time series. We propose two cumulative sum (CUSUM) test procedures for detection of changes in model parameters. Under regularity conditions, the asymptotic null distributions of the test statistics are established. In addition, the integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (INGARCH) processes with conditional negative binomial distributions are investigated. The developed techniques are examined through simulation studies and also are illustrated using an empirical example.     

杨堃笔下的葛兰言——读《葛兰言研究导论》

杨堃先生是留法十年(1920-1930)的著名社会学家、民族学家以及民俗学家.1926年,他在法国里昂大学攻读博士学位,当时的导师是著名汉学家古恒(Maurice-Auguste-Louis-Marie Courant, 1865～1935),研究方向为社会学.)     

商科大学生道德认知的影响因素

近年来,企业舞弊事件频传,使得企业管理者道德认知水平成为人们热议的焦点,商科学生未来将成为企业的管理者,他们的道德认知水平对企业诚信影响很大。本研究以问卷方式调查上海某高校商科学生和社会工作专业学生是否因主修课程不同,其道德认知水平有所不同。结果显示商科课程对道德认知水平提升有限,未来我国商科教育应加强商业伦理课程的教学。     

跨国营销模式选择的权变影响:基于颐客视角的研究

本研究结合对华为、普华永道以及顶新国际集团等跨国公司的实地访谈选定“母国—东道国”和“东道国—东道国”两类研究视角,以普通消费者非常熟悉的牛仔裤、运动鞋和笔记本电脑等产品类别中的相关品牌作为测试对象,选择来自于中国、加拿大、日本和韩国等具有跨国界经历的顾客作为调研样本,分别检验了以品牌母国和品牌东道国为基准衍生出的营销标准化程度对东道国顾客心理的影响关系模型.模型中加入了市场情境因素作为调节变量.最后,结合具体事例针对中国企业做了引申讨论.