The Opportunity Cost of Admission Preferences at Elite Universities*

Objective. This study examines how preferences for different types of applicants for admission to elite universities influence the number and composition of admitted students. Methods. Previous research with these NSCE data employed logistic regression analysis to link information on the admission decision for 124,374 applications to applicants' SAT scores, race, athletic ability, and legacy status, among other variables. Here we use micro simulations to illustrate what the effects might be if one were to withdraw preferences for different student groups. Results. Eliminating affirmative action would substantially reduce the share of African Americans and Hispanics among admitted students. Preferences for athletes and legacies, however, only mildly displace members of minority groups. Conclusions. Elite colleges and universities extend preferences to many types of students, yet affirmative action is the one most surrounded by controversy.     

The Timing of Entry Into Fatherhood in Young, At-Risk Men

Timing of first fatherhood was examined in a sample of 206 at-risk, predominantly White men, followed prospectively for 17 years. An event history analysis was used to test a model wherein antisocial behavior, the contextual and familial factors that may contribute to the development of antisocial behavior, and common correlates of such behavior, including academic failure, substance use, and early initiation of sexual behaviors, lead both directly and indirectly to an early transition to fatherhood. Having a mother who was younger at first birth, low family SES, poor academic skills, failure to use condoms, and being in a cohabitating or marital relationship predicted entry into fatherhood. Implications of the findings for prevention of and intervention with early fathering are discussed.     

Introduction Private and Public: Gender,Generation and Family Life in Flux

In the past four decades, Hong Kong has seen a dramatic transformation of the social location of women in the public sphere, with deep and far-reaching ramifications for courtship, marriage, fertility, conceptions of parenthood, familial power, and equality and freedom. A sociology of the family is thus by necessity a sociology of women in particular, and of gender relations in general. Indeed, recent developments in research on marriage and the family in Hong Kong reflect this new awareness. Using rigorous sociological frameworks, this new line of research has begun to meet with some success in analyzing contemporary social issues that are prominent in the public consciousness. This essay reviews studies of four topical areas: determinants of the postponement of first marriage among women, the effect of live-in foreign domestic workers on family dynamics, violence against women and children in the family, and the livelihood strategies of cross-border families. These studies have attempted to integrate the interplay of the impact of a changing economy and society on the family and the role played by women in the family. The resulting dynamic interactions amongst the members within the family and the changes they bring about become propellants for change in the economy and society and pose new challenges. The family is indeed a troubled institution. It is so because myriad public issues are being taken on, confronted, worked through, and acted out within the family. The agony, and indeed the ecstasy, of the family is a reflection of the success, and failure, of society.     

Strategic Alternative Responses to Risks of Terrorism

The terrorist acts of September 11, 2001 were a wake‐up call for changing our traditional response to risks of terrorism. Given that government and worldwide think‐tank organizations maintain that risks of terrorism will continue for the indefinite future, the following questions deserve strategic answers. How long can we respond to terrorism with tactical measures only, sustain current curtailments of some of our freedoms, travel, and quality of life, and absorb losses in human life and properties? Should not underlying strategic motivation lead to the tactical measures? Why do so many groups and individuals in some developing countries hate us? Is it because they fear that the ideas we export through television, movies, literature, and music have a corrupting influence on their cultures? Is it because of past operations that we conducted in such countries as Iran, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Granada? Can the genesis of the risks of terrorism to the homeland be traced to the unfavorable socioeconomic conditions in less‐privileged and developing countries, where civil and religious freedoms are close to nonexistent, and sanitary conditions, health and education, and critical infrastructures of essential utilities are almost at the same level that existed in the United States almost a century ago? If we could make progress at improving the quality of life of the billions of people in the developing countries and become more sensitive to their needs, cultures, and heritage, would their hatred subside? What other measures can we take to reduce their hatred, without compromising our basic cultural and democratic principles or their cultural and social heritage?     

Productive welfare: Korea's third way?

How can the various pressures of economic globalisation and changes in the established welfare systems of the industrialised nations inform the development of the Korean welfare state? As the twenty‐first century dawns, Korea is confronted with a serious dilemma: How to adapt to globalisation and survive under worldwide competition and at the same time construct an effective egalitarian welfare state? The objective of this paper is to explore the future directions for the Korean social welfare system as it adjusts to economic globalisation. As it seeks a course between the social democratic welfare state model and the rising tide of the neo‐liberal welfare state, we pose the question: Is there a ‘third way’ for Korea? In trying to discern where the Korean welfare state is headed, it may be helpful to understand where it has come from and how it compares with the established welfare states in the industrialised nations.     

Women are Victims,Men Make Choices: The Invisibility of Men and Boys in the Global Sex Trade

The invisibility of men and boys in scholarly discussions of the global sex trade was analyzed through a sample of 166 recent articles published in social science journals. Most failed to acknowledge the existence of male sex workers at all. When male sex workers were discussed, they were assigned considerably more agency than female sex workers, the chief danger ascribed to them was HIV rather than violence, and the question of their sexual orientation was always addressed, whereas female sex workers were always assumed heterosexual. The results are discussed in the context of world system theory, Orientalism, and heteronormativity.     

Rate of strong uniform convergence of k-NN density estimates

Let f_n(x) be the univariate k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) density estimate proposed by Loftsgaarden and Quesenberry (1965). By using similar techniques as in Bahadur's representation of sample quantiles (1966), and by the recent results on the oscillation of empirical processes by Stute (1982), we derive the rate of strong uniform convergence of f_n(x) on some suitably chosen interval J_δ. Some comparison with the kernel estimates is given, as well as the choice of the bandwidth sequence relative to the sample size.     

Life Maps: Tracking Individual Gender and Sexual Identity Construction in the Contexts of Cultures,Relationships, and Desires

The categories and language currently available to designate gender identity and sexual identity constitute over-simplifications, which do not adequately signify the complex interplays between gender and sexual orientation. It is also often difficult to recount honestly, in a way that is visible to the self and intimate others, our understandings of the complex interplays and frequent fluidity of our individual processes of gender identity development, sexual identity development, and forms of preferred erotic/sexual behavior. This essay proposes, in preliminary form, a theoretical and diagrammatic method, called a “life map,” for a context-rich illustration of an individual’s meandering journey of gender and sexual identity development. Using two illustrative lives, the essay includes cultural contexts for development as well as the gender and sexual identity locations of relationally intimate others. In addition, it suggests a framework for core types of desired erotic behaviors and provides examples of variations in such desires in relational and identity contexts.     

The predictability of stock returns - a nonparametric approach

This paper reexamines the predictability of stock returns with a nonparametric model. We first identify, through a set of diagnostic tests, five lagged predictive factors from a linear model. Using these factors, we predict one-month-ahead stock index returns with a nonparametric approach. We find that our nonparametricmodel. We first identify, through a set of diagnostic tests, five lagged predictive factors from a linear model. Using these factors, we predict on -month-ahead stock index returns with a nonparametric approach. We find that our nonparametric model can correctly predict about 74% of stock index return signs. With various ex ante trading rules based on nonparametric predictions and transaction cost schedules, we then compare the performance of "managed" portfolios with that of the buy and hold portfolios. We fmd that the managed portfolios are mean-variance dominant over the buy-and-hold strategies when no or low transaction costs are assumed. When high transaction costs are assumed instead, the mean-variance dominance diminishes However,the Sharpe index of risk-adjusted portfolio performanceindicates that the managed portfolios significantly outperform the buy-and-hold strategies even for the high-transaction cost scenario. We show that the difference in performance between the managed portfolios and the buy-and-hold strategies can be partially explained by the January effect or the small firm effect. In sum, this paper demonstrates the merits of using a nonparametric approach for predicting stock returns and testing market efficiency.