A method of deriving valid approximate expressions for bias in ratio estimation

The expectation of a ratio of two statistics is usually obtained by the method in which the denominator is expanded into a binomial series around its mean. However, this method can less generally be employed because the expansion of the denominator is not always valid. This paper presents a device in which the expectation of a ratio of two statistics can more generally be obtained. The device is to adopt a positive value as ‘catalyzer’. It can be applied not only to the ratio of estimates based on samples but also to ratio of any two statistics, if the denominator is positive and finite.     

The Use Of Shame and Dread in the Countertransference

Much has been written about paranoid anxieties as these occur in the patient. Less, however, has been written about primitive experiences as these occur in the therapist during the session. This paper recounts a patient's correct articulation of the therapist's self-perception, which, because of its accuracy, initially flooded the therapist with shame and dread. Nonetheless, the patient's perception was able to be used in a way that clarified, in the countertransferance, a piece of the patient's early experience in relation to her mother and strengthened the therapeutic relationship.     

Das Feuer kleiner Gruppen: Analyse der Entwicklungslogik und -dynamik eines Beratungsprozesses

The spark of small groups: An analysis of the developmental logic and dynamics of a consultancy process In the recent past large group interventions have gained increased attention in the systemic consulting literature. In contrast to this tendency, this paper focuses on the significance and effectiveness of small group interventions in business consultancy.Based on a qualitative analysis of a consultancy process, the effectiveness of small group change processes is documented here: Unlike large groups, small groups not only are far more likely to succeed in developing structures which differ from the existing organizational structures, they moreover are much more likely to develop a strong identity which helps them generate the power necessary for change. Especially in conflict situations and in situations where the pressures that are being put on an organization are increasing, small groups are more likely to maintain their identity, another crucial prerequisite for the initiation of a change process.The paper shows that consultancy systems, which differ in structure from the customer organization, are apt to serve as incubators for the development of strong groups within an organization. These small groups are able to push for organizational changes using conflicts process.     

Random Weighted Bootstrap Method for Recurrent Events with Informative Censoring

Using the data from the AIDS Link to Intravenous Experiences cohort study as an example, an informative censoring model was used to characterize the repeated hospitalization process of a group of patients. Under the informative censoring assumption, the estimators of the baseline rate function and the regression parameters were shown to be related to a latent variable. Hence, it becomes impractical to directly estimate the unknown quantities in the moments of the estimators for the bandwidth selection of a smoothing estimator and the construction of confidence intervals, which are respectively based on the asymptotic mean squared errors and the asymptotic distributions of the estimators. To overcome these difficulties, we develop a random weighted bootstrap procedure to select appropriate bandwidths and to construct approximated confidence intervals. One can see that our method is simple and faster to implement from a practical point of view, and is at least as accurate as other bootstrap methods. In this article, it is shown that the proposed method is useful through the performance of a Monte Carlo simulation. An application of our procedure is also illustrated by a recurrent event sample of intravenous drug users for inpatient cares over time.     

“恨”的现象学分析

对韩国人的恨的多层结构--否定与肯定、消极与积极、过去意向性与未来意向性结构进行分析,从和解意向性角度来对恨的独特性进行确认,可以看出,恨的主体是以情促成和解的情绪,类似于把他者构造成自己的意向相关者的本能意向.     

Familial obesity as a proxy for omitted variables in the obesity-mortality relationship

In a conventional survival analysis of a sample of the U.S. population in 1971-1974, the association between mortality and obesity is compared with the analogous risk from the presence of an obese person in a household. The two factors have similar risk profiles, with a hazard ratio of 1.44 for nonmorbid obesity and 1.48 for nonmorbid familial obesity in one sample. If "familial obesity" cannot directly affect personal longevity, and if shared factors determine both personal and familial obesity, the mortality risk of family and actual personal obesity is similarly overstated. This false positive in the estimated risk arises from correlations among obesity and unobserved environmental, behavioral, or genetic factors.     

The population debate: A survey of opinions of a professional organization's membership

In analyzing results of a survey concerning population issues taken among members of an organization devoted to the scientific study of population, namely, the Population Association of America, we found high agreement that: (1) world population growth was much too high, (2) many of today's serious problems are caused by overpopulation, and (3) the U.S. should help any requesting country establish programs to curtail growth. There was no consensus, however, on issues such as: (1) ideal population size, (2) family planning as the most reasonable means of reducing population growth, (3) the need to initiate coercive birth control immediately, (4) redistribution of resources as a long-term solution to overpopulation, (5) how to solve population problems in time to avoid widespread catastrophe, and (6) whether the U.S. should exert pressure on other countries to establish a family planning program as a prerequisite to economic aid. These findings apply with few exceptions to four subcategories of members defined on the basis of extent of demographic training and employment.