Secularization and the politics of traditionalism: The case of the right-to-life movement

Research on the traditionalist movement against abortion needs alignment with currents in historical sociology, the theory of social movements and the sociology of politics. The religious (specifically, Christian) basis of the right-to-life movement has attracted considerable attention in the literature. The movement is seen as a traditionalist bloc claiming to oppose secularization and return to customary restrictions. However the tradition in question appears to be a recent social construction. There is slim warrant in the actual traditions of Western religion for asserting a categorical right to life. As a result, the movement's ideology is best approached as the product of—rather than the antidote to—secularizing processes (including the demographic transition, discourse about rights, markets for symbolic entrepreneurs and the separation of church and state) and possibly as an unintended import from non-Western religion. Implications for traditionalism, the functions of religion, and the study of countermovements are explored. This case illustrates the value of attending to historical sequences and the external cultural environments of social movements.     

Stochastic modelling of regional annual rainfall anomalies in East Africa

ARIMA (p, d, q) models were fitted to areal annual rainfall of two homogeneous regions in East Africa with rainfall records extending between the period 1922–80. The areal estimates of the regional rainfall were derived from the time series of the first eigenvector, which was significantly dominant at each of the two regions. The first eigenvector accounted for about 80% of the total rainfall variance in each region.

The class of ARIMA (p, d, q) models which best fitted the areal indices of relative wetness/dryness were the A R M A (3, 1) models. Tests of forecasting skill however indicated low skill in the forecasts given by these models. In all cases the models accounted for less than 50% of the total variance.

Spectral analysis of the indices time series indicated dominant quasi-periodic fluctuations around 2.2–2.8 years, 3–3.7 years, 5–6 years and 10–13 years. These spectral bands however accounted for very low proportion of the total rainfall variance.     

Computer support of placement planning: the use of expert systems in child welfare

Computers have become commonplace in nearly every setting, from home to office. In addition to their usefulness for managerial tasks, they have the potential to aid the primary decision-making tasks of professional social service workers. The benefits and background of such "expert systems" are explored, and the structure of one experimental consulting program for child welfare workers, PLACECON, is presented.     

How bad can a voting location be

Two questions concerning the location of a single facility by a voting process are investigated for transportation networks:

- What is the maximum number of customers located on the network preferring some rival point over a voting solution?

- How does the average distance of the customers to the facility increase when a voting location instead of a Weber location is chosen for the facility?

Complete answers are given for general networks and for certain planar networks, viz., the so-called generalized cacti.     

Picking the Winners: Politician vs. Voter Predictions of Two Controversial Ballot Measures

Abstract Both politicians and voters were asked to predict outcomesof two Oregon ballot measures in 1982. As expected, politicians'predictions always were closer to the mark than voters' were.Further, voters showed stronger signs of wishful thinking (the"Looking-Glass effect") in their predictions than did politicians.Using published preelection polls apparently improved politicians'accuracy in 1982, as well as voters' accuracy in a separate1984 survey. No other sources of data improved predictive accuracy.Findings have implications for theories of representative governmentand are consistent with a new theory of public opinion.     

Statistical materials. Part 3: fertility,mortality, and natural increase

In this one-page statistical summary, data are presented for the USSR as a whole on fertility, mortality, and natural increase. The data are for five-year intervals from 1940 to 1980 and for single years from 1980 and are presented in terms of both totals and rates.     

Treatment of the emotionally disturbed,mildly retarded youngster in the foster care system

This paper demonstrates the need for a broad array of clinical services in treating the emotionally disturbed, mildly retarded youngster in the foster care system. A hypothesis suggests that cognitive deficits and borderline pathology are interrelated, and that treatment involves modifications of traditional therapeutic techniques. The definition of clinical is expanded to include seemingly concrete and environmental services, in addition to the office therapy session. Finally, some systemic impediments to effective treatment of the population are explored.This paper was completed as a requirement of the Post-Master's Program in Advanced Clinical Social Work of Hunter College School of Social Work.     

The therapeutic utilization of canines in a child welfare setting

This article describes the therapeutic use of canines in child welfare work. The chronically rejected child, or those who virtually spend their entire youth in care, tend to develop a withdrawn, depressed, and suspicious posture toward their relations with other people. This ultimately results in their failure to respond to conventional treatment modalities. Under these circumstances, the canine intervention may prove to be a valuable adjunct, helping to develop and to expedite the process of the therapeutic alliance.This article is a revised version of one presented to meet the requirements for the Masters in Social Work Degree from Hunter College School of Social Work.     

Gender,academic careers,and the social psychology of aging

Because of cultural, historical and other social structural factors, men and women with the same chronological age have had quite different career trajectories. This paper examines how the different career-paths of men and women academics create differences in their images of aging, self and work. In-depth interviews (N=47) were conducted with a sample of male and female professors, currently between fifty and sixty years of age. Male respondents nearly uniformly followed continuous, linear careers while the women's careers were, with equal uniformity, discontinuous. Data suggest that this difference in career routes fashions different gender timeclocks, i.e., different experiences of aging.