Statistical simulations on the BBC microcomputer: significance tests of the pseudo-random number generator

Statistical tests of significance are carried out on the feedback shift register pseudo-random number generator employed on the BBC microcomputer. The tests are based on the practicalities of using a microcomputer in simulations for statistical education. The results indicate that the generator is not universally acceptable in this role.     

淳化县枣树沟脑遗址调查发掘的主要收获

枣树沟脑遗址位于陕西淳化县境内,地处古豳地的东部边缘.首次全面调查及考古发掘资料显示,枣树沟脑遗址不仅规模较大,文化内涵丰富而复杂,且先周时期文化遗存特征鲜明,三足瓮等文化遗物明显具有陕北一带的因素.进而揭示出古豳地区先周文化的多元性和复杂性,对于相关学术问题研究具有非常重要的意义.     

How Does the General Public Evaluate Risk Information? The Impact of Associations with Other Risks

There is a considerable body of knowledge about the way people perceive risks using heuristics and qualitative characteristics, and about how risk information should be communicated to the public. However, little is known about the way people use the perception of known risks (associated risks) to judge an unknown risk. In a first, qualitative study, six different risks were discussed in in-depth interviews and focus group interviews. The interviews showed that risk associations played a prominent role in forming risk perceptions. Associated risks were often mentioned spontaneously. Second, a survey study was conducted to confirm the importance of risk associations quantitatively. This study investigated whether people related unknown risks to known risks. This was indeed confirmed. Furthermore, some insight was gained into how and why people form risk associations. Results showed that the semantic category of the unknown risks was more important in forming associations than the perceived level of risk or specific risk characteristics. These findings were in line with the semantic network theory. Based on these two studies, we recommend using the mental models approach in developing new risk communications.     

Tests and Confidence Intervals for an Extended Variance Component Using the Modified Likelihood Ratio Statistic

Abstract.  The large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic is studied for testing a variance component equal to a specified value. Formulas are presented in the general balanced case, whereas in the unbalanced case only the one-way random effects model is studied. Simulation studies are presented, showing that the normal approximation to the large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic gives confidence intervals for variance components with coverage probabilities very close to the nominal confidence coefficient.     

三大冲突的交融:中国资本流动性过剩内在机理分析

当前中国宏观经济面临诸多问题,其重要原因就在于中国资本流动性过剩.而资本流动性过剩产生的实质则是三大冲突的交融:即实体经济与虚拟经济的冲突,转轨期新体制与旧体制的冲突和开放经济下内外均衡的冲突.为此解决中国宏观经济运行矛盾的突破口在于解决资本流动性过剩,其战略思路应该以金融全球化背景为出发点,适应国际货币体系调整,以国家安全作为重点,实现三大均衡:一是实体经济和虚拟经济的均衡;二是新旧体制交叉期的制度均衡;三是开放条件下内外均衡.     

“文化”内涵考辩

中外学者关于文化的种种定义，各有长短，反映了近现代人类学家、社会学家和社会心理学家对文化认识的历史过程。通过归总众多学者关于文化的定义，我们可以从要素和特征两方面看待文化的内涵。     

Does Family Structure Matter in the Relationships Between Youth Assets and Youth Alcohol,Drug and Tobacco Use?

This study investigated significant relationships between youth assets and youth alcohol, tobacco, and drug use that differ according to family structure (one- or two-parent households). Data were collected from a randomly sampled inner-city population (n=1,256 teenagers and 1,256 parents of the teenagers) using in-home, in-person interviews. Logistic regression analyses, stratifying by one- and two-parent household status, were conducted with nine youth assets as the independent variables and youth alcohol, tobacco, and drug use as the dependent variables. Results indicated that the associations between assets and risk behaviors varied depending upon whether the youth lived in one- or two-parent households. Continued research is warranted to further investigate associations among family structure, youth assets, and youth risk behaviors.     

Minimizing makespan in an ordered flow shop with?machine-dependent processing times

We consider a generalization of the proportionate flow shop problem with the makespan objective. Each job has a processing requirement and each machine has a characteristic value. In our case, we assume that the time a job occupies a machine is equal to the processing requirement of the job plus a setup time that is equal to the characteristic value of that machine. In this paper, we consider permutation schedules and show that the problem is solvable in polynomial time when the number of machines is fixed.     

Alcohol Consumption and Cirrhosis Mortality in the Industrialised Countries Since 1950

Before 1975 or 1980, there was a substantial increase in the consumption of alcohol throughout the industrialised countries. Thereafter, trends in the various countries began to diverge. In the Mediterranean countries and the Anglo-Saxon countries bordering the Pacific, consumption underwent a decline; it remained relatively stable in most of the Central and Northern European countries, whilst in the former socialist countries and certain Northern European countries, it continued to rise. Cirrhosis mortality has followed changes in the consumption trends of the main alcoholic beverage or that of spirits (when a certain consumption threshold is exceeded). Before 1980, the increase in alcohol consumption primarily involved men and, today, excess male mortality is higher than it was forty years ago, despite a slight convergence between male and female mortality rates. In several North or Central European countries, excessive alcohol consumption is presently slowing down the decline of the general death rates. In Eastern Europe, it is one of the basic factors responsible for the stagnation or even upturn of mortality rates.     

论维特根斯坦与库比特的生活宗教观

维特根斯坦从语言游戏理论出发提出了生活宗教的概念,试图将宗教变成一种生活方式.库比特沿着维特根斯坦的道路发展了一套完整的生活宗教理论.他以日常语言调查方法揭示嵌入日常生活的宗教,在此基础上,他描绘了一幅以太阳伦理学为核心的全新的宗教图景,并指出今天的真宗教就是热爱当下的生活.