Mixture inverse Gaussian for unobserved heterogeneity in the autoregressive conditional duration model

In this paper, we assume that the duration of a process has two different intrinsic components or phases which are independent. The first is the time it takes for a trade to be initiated in the market (for example, the time during which agents obtain knowledge about the market in which they are operating and accumulate information, which is coherent with Brownian motion) and the second is the subsequent time required for the trade to develop into a complete duration. Of course, if the first time is zero then the trade is initiated immediately and no initial knowledge is required. If we assume a specific compound Bernoulli distribution for the first time and an inverse Gaussian distribution for the second, the resulting convolution model has a mixture of an inverse Gaussian distribution with its reciprocal, which allows us to specify and test the unobserved heterogeneity in the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model.

Our proposals make it possible not only to capture various density shapes of the durations but also easily to accommodate the behaviour of the tail of the distribution and the non monotonic hazard function. The proposed model is easy to fit and characterizes the behaviour of the conditional durations reasonably well in terms of statistical criteria based on point and density forecasts.     

A new confidence interval in measurement error model with the reliability ratio known

For the slope parameter of the measurement error model with the reliability ratio known, this article constructs a fiducial generalized confidence interval (FGCI) which is proved to have correct asymptotic coverage. Simulation results demonstrate that the FGCI often outperforms the existing intervals in terms of empirical coverage probability, average interval length, and false parameter coverage rate. Two examples are also provided to illustrate our approach.     

基于贝叶斯学习的惩罚因子的选择

文章基于贝叶斯学习,将正则化方法从贝叶斯分析的角度展开,在响应变量服从正态分布、回归系数服从指数型先验分布族的条件下,用贝叶斯准则给出了惩罚因子的取值与响应变量、系数的方差之间的关系,并将这一结果应用到岭回归和lasso回归中惩罚因子的选择.实例检验结果表明,当响应变量和系数服从正态分布,惩罚因子的值取二者方差商的方法比岭迹法和广义交叉验证法(GCV)拟合效果更优.     

非线性面板数据聚类方法研究

对于一类变量非线性相关的面板数据,现有的基于线性算法的面板数据聚类方法并不能准确地度量样本间的相似性,且聚类结果的可解释性低。综合考虑变量非线性相关问题及聚类结果可解释性问题,提出一种非线性面板数据的聚类方法,通过非线性核主成分算法实现对样本相似性的测度,并基于混合高斯模型进行样本概率聚类,实证表明该方法的有效性及其对聚类结果的可解释性有所提高。     

Who Is to Blame?

We present the results of a content analysis of communications related to the act of terrorism at Domodedovo airport. They show that mass media plays a significant role as a source of factual, undigested information. The theoretical value of the results is that they show a significant number of cases where an actor is accused with no reference to his actions or nonactions. The range of types of complicity in terrorist activity was substantial.     

The Role of the West in Evolving World Order,and Russian Politics

The coexistence of modernities of different structural types, with different historical foundations, and with different systemic modes of structural organization leads to the coexistence of traditional and new actors within a single spatiotemporal arrangement of international relations and to the differentiation of macroregions and nation-states in accordance with structural principles of organization. In the final analysis, the type of political access in specific nation-states and the combination of different types of political access in macroregions with different modes of structural organization and at different stages of historical development influence the developmental strategies of states and the character and priorities of their foreign policies; these in turn continue in significant measure to shape the processes that form the space of world politics. The identification of such interconnections makes it possible to analyze the influence of the type of sociopolitical access in states, coalitions of states, and global regions on the formative processes and character of the space of world politics and to engage in social engineering of the format of national and world space with a view to optimizing conditions for national development. Theoretical and practical conceptualization of the interconnection between external and internal processes, including their political component, will enable us to work out applied theories of competitive models of cooperative regional and national development and strategies for national modernization and development with adequate protection of national interests.     

Can the minimum living standard guarantee scheme enable the poor to escape the poverty trap in rural China?

The rural Minimum Living Standard Guarantee (Dibao) Scheme is the most important social assistance programme in rural China. However, how the rural Dibao programme affects household expenditures and whether it can enable the poor to escape the poverty trap are questions that remain largely unexplored. This study used data from the 2012 Rural Household Survey in China to investigate the impact of the rural Dibao programme on household expenditures. We found that the programme significantly improved the well‐being of low‐income households. Particularly, the programme significantly increased household expenditures on housing, education and health; furthermore, the impact was greater for households with educated household heads. However, the programme did not significantly affect household expenditures on food, transportation or farming inputs. The results imply that participation in the rural Dibao programme induces household investment in human capital, which could help to break the inter‐generational transmission of poverty and raise long‐run welfare.     

The Othering of Muslims: Discourses of Radicalization in the New York Times, 1969–2014

In this article, I engage with Edward Said's Orientalism and various perspectives within the othering paradigm to analyze the emergence and transformation of radicalization discourses in the news media. Employing discourse analysis of 607 New York Times articles from 1969 to 2014, this article demonstrates that radicalization discourses are not new but are the result of complex sociolinguistic and historical developments that cannot be reduced to dominant contemporary understandings of the concept or to singular events or crises. The news articles were then compared to 850 government documents, speeches, and other official communications. The analysis of the data indicates that media conceptualizations of radicalization, which once denoted political and economic differences, have now shifted to overwhelmingly focus on Islam. As such, radicalization discourse now evokes the construct radicalization as symbolic marker of conflict between the West and the East. I also advanced the established notion that the news media employ strategic discursive strategies that contribute to conceptual distinctions that are used to construct Muslims as an “alien other” to the West.     

The Relation of Negative Career Thoughts to Depression and Hopelessness

Although some research literature focuses on the integration of mental health and career counseling, there has been little that examines both areas in relation to depression and hopelessness. This study investigated the relationship among dysfunctional career thinking, depression, and hopelessness in a sample of 139 undergraduate and graduate students seeking drop‐in or individual career counseling services at a university career center. The authors found that two aspects of dysfunctional career thinking, decision‐making confusion and commitment anxiety, accounted for a significant amount of variance in depression. Decision‐making confusion also accounted for a significant amount of variance in hopelessness. Implications for counseling practice include the need for more careful screening of career clients who present with high levels of anxiety and negative thinking. Future research could involve more diverse client populations, such as unemployed adults, and explore the use of additional screening measures to assess the intersection of career and mental health issues.