流转税和所得税的福利效应研究

 本文根据我国城市（镇）不同收入阶层1999年至2008年的支出结构数据及现金收入和支出统计状况,测算出我国城镇居民消费支出的有效税率②和所得税额;利用跨期消费决策的两期模型,构造居民消费效用函数,即消费者的福利函数,测算出我国流转税和所得税的福利损失（成本）。结果显示：我国居民消费符合边际消费倾向递减规律;不同收入阶层的消费时间偏好不同,收入水平越低越倾向于当前消费;流转税具有明显的累退效应,而所得税的累进效应,特别是个人所得税的累进效应不明显,使得我国当前的税制结构对收入分配的调节力度不够。     

规制政府的理论范式与制度选择

从政府失灵、政府部门利益、政府规制俘虏、政府寻租等理论入手,分析放松政府规制及对规制者规制的理论沿革与发展,提出了政府规制对社会经济发展的最大贡献是为市场运行提供了恰当的制度基础,而最大的损害是对市场运行进行任意和过度的干预,为保证政府对市场规制的有效性,需要确立和强化对规制者进行规制的基本思路。     

Decision-Making and Evidence in Direct Practice

This article presents the results of research designed to explore decision-making by direct practitioners in selected non-profit human service settings. Forty interviews were conducted with workers at front-line, supervisory and higher-management levels. The research questions included; what sources of information are used in decision-making, what variables enhance or impede utilization of evidence-based knowledge in decision-making and what would be important resources for improving availability, access and utilization of evidence-based knowledge in decision-making? Our results indicate that respondents relied most heavily on experience; on their professional values and beliefs, and on an empathic understanding of their clients’ uniqueness. Compared to these sources of information use of research and the professional literature were less enthusiastically endorsed.     

Anger and Approach Motivation in Infancy: Relations to Early Childhood Inhibitory Control and Behavior Problems

The relations among infant anger reactivity, approach behavior, and frontal electroencephalogram (EEG) asymmetry, and their relations to inhibitory control and behavior problems in early childhood were examined within the context of a longitudinal study of temperament. Two hundred nine infants’ anger expressions to arm restraint were observed at 4 months of age. Infants’ approach behaviors during play with an unpredictable toy and baseline frontal EEG asymmetry were assessed at 9 months of age. Inhibitory control during a Go/No‐Go task and parent report of behavior problems were evaluated at 4 years of age. High anger‐prone infants with left, but not right, frontal EEG asymmetry showed significantly more approach behaviors and less inhibitory control relative to less anger‐prone infants. Although a link between anger proneness in infancy and behavior problems in early childhood was not found, a combination of low approach behaviors and poor inhibitory control was predictive of internalizing behaviors.     

Regional Protection and Development as an Exchange Model: To Create a Balance between Eco-Protection and Poverty-Elimination in Eco-protected Areas

Eco-protection and poverty elimination has always been the unsolved problem in many countries and regions; especially for those less-developed ecological protected areas who have to pay extra attention to coordinating the relation between poverty elimination and ecological protection. Up to now, most of the traditional methods are short-term measures. Thus, we introduce the Regional Protection and Development as an Exchange Mode, which proved its feasibility in dealing with both eco-protection and poverty elimination in the case of “JPDZ”. Moreover, we are proposing that this model can also be implemented in countries and regions with similar situation and even with the cases in other fields like the integration of educational resources and the protection of cultural heritages.     

辽宁文化产业与经济发展协调状况评价及其思考

协调状况的综合判断不仅要考虑协调度还要考虑协调发展水平,以反映不同水平下的协调程度。综合判断的目的不仅仅要计算出排序结果,更要关注综合水平背后被平均掉的个体指标,基于这种思路指出：辽宁文化产业与经济发展总体上虽处于相对协调状态,但在很多方面仍存在文化产业落后于经济发展的情况,这是辽宁文化产业发展的软肋。     

Bayesian local influence for survival models

The aim of this paper is to develop a Bayesian local influence method (Zhu et al. 2009, submitted) for assessing minor perturbations to the prior, the sampling distribution, and individual observations in survival analysis. We introduce a perturbation model to characterize simultaneous (or individual) perturbations to the data, the prior distribution, and the sampling distribution. We construct a Bayesian perturbation manifold to the perturbation model and calculate its associated geometric quantities including the metric tensor to characterize the intrinsic structure of the perturbation model (or perturbation scheme). We develop local influence measures based on several objective functions to quantify the degree of various perturbations to statistical models. We carry out several simulation studies and analyze two real data sets to illustrate our Bayesian local influence method in detecting influential observations, and for characterizing the sensitivity to the prior distribution and hazard function.     

A stable estimator of the information matrix under EM for dependent data

This article develops a new and stable estimator for information matrix when the EM algorithm is used in maximum likelihood estimation. This estimator is constructed using the smoothed individual complete-data scores that are readily available from running the EM algorithm. The method works for dependent data sets and when the expectation step is an irregular function of the conditioning parameters. In comparison to the approach of Louis (J. R. Stat. Soc., Ser. B 44:226–233, 1982), this new estimator is more stable and easier to implement. Both real and simulated data are used to demonstrate the use of this new estimator.     

Coupon collector's problem and generalized Pareto distributions

Let N_n={1,2,…,n}. We sample with replacement from the set N_n assuming that each element has probability 1/n of being drawn. Let M_n be the waiting time determined by certain stoping rules in the coupon collector's problem. We investigate models for the asymptotic behavior of the excesses of M_n over the high thresholds.     

论中国文人小说的“整—性”

由于诗、词、曲、赋等各体文字的普遍使用,"非整一性"成为长期以来西方学者对中国小说文体最主要的批评。一般所谓"中国小说"或"白话小说",按其性质本应分为三类:一是"话本",本质上是说唱艺术的文字遗存;二是"世代累积型"小说,亦本为说唱艺术,但大多经历了明清书商或文人程度不一的编改;三是明清文人独立创作的"文人小说"。故唯第三类才是真正意义的小说,西方学者的批评仅对应第三类才真正有效。诗、词、曲、赋等各体文字作为口头说唱艺术时本各有其用,在"文人小说"中此类文字在不同作品中,其文本"整一性"也各自不同。也就是说,如果我们将现存所谓"小说"还原至其所产生的历史语境,我们可能得到完全相反的结论。