美国老龄产业发展及对我国的启示

随着21世纪全球人口老龄化时代到来,老龄产业成为拉动国家经济增长的新引擎.美国早在20世纪40年代进入了老龄化社会,老龄产业发展相对较早,经历了从完全被忽略,到反复摸索,再到理性发展的过程,通过企业发现并不断满足老年消费者尚未满足的需求、科技创新、相关政府部门扶持、老龄科学研究服务于产业发展、美国退休人员协会助推等举措,老龄产业进入发展快车道.中国作为世界上老年人口最多的国家,须以美国经验为借鉴,从市场细分、产品和服务创新、老龄产业发展政策支持体系、产学研紧密结合、老龄产业协会中介作用等方面推动老龄产业发展.     

后共产主义社会中的民族主义——一个以波兰及其他后共产主义国家为中心的社会学分析

民族主义问题不仅是当今世界令人眼花缭乱的重大意识形态问题,而且在处于转型和过渡时期的社会中呈现为令人困扰的思潮.结合着历史上具有共产主义思想和实践的国家的传统与现状,本文对后共产主义社会境域中的民族主义问题进行了分析.文章认为,后共产主义的民族主义既是一种政治思想,也是一种社会运动,其起源、生发和蔓延与社会变革产生的焦虑息息相关,既与自由主义民主和自由市场相对立,也与社会结构变迁相承接.     

论构建法治大庆

法治大庆是社会主义法治国家在大庆的实现形式,我们应以科学发展观为指导,站在加快大庆经济建设、政治建设、文化建设、社会建设步伐的高度,充分认识构建法治大庆的重要性和必要性,并从思想认识、推进机制、执法理念、执法人员素质和理论研究等五个方面推进法治大庆建设。     

Determining species specific nightly bat activity in sites with varying urban intensity

Time of peak bat activity during the night differs among bat species due to temperature, prey availability, habitat availability, and/or interactions between species. Habitat availability is altered in urban areas, which may affect insect prey availability and interspecies interactions. Our objectives were to use mobile acoustic monitoring to determine when bat species were active in a single night in urban and nonurban sites and if nightly bat activity patterns differed in urban versus nonurban sites. Bat echolocation call sequences were recorded using Anabat acoustic detectors while driving transects through the night at five sites (three “urban” and two “nonurban”) located in the Piedmont region of north-central North Carolina from May through August 2016. Transects were driven three times per night starting 45 min, 180 min, and 300 min after sunset. Recorded echolocation call sequences were analyzed manually using AnalookW and automatically using Bat Call Identification and Echoclass software. Total bat activity was not different between urban and nonurban sites. However, total bat activity was lower later in the night in urban sites, but stayed the same in nonurban sites. Species specifically, there were more Eptesicus fuscus, Lasionycteris noctivagans, and Tadarida brasiliensis call sequences and fewer Lasiurus borealis, Nycticeius humeralis, and Perimyotis subflavus call sequences in urban sites than nonurban sites. There were also fewer E. fuscus, L. noctivagans, and N. humeralis call sequences later in the night in both urban and nonurban sites. Only Lasiurus borealis activity in urban sites later in the night reduced and L. borealis activity in nonurban sites remained at the same. These results suggest that bats in urban areas partition time differently, which is important to consider for urban conservation efforts and planning.     

Gambling and Sport: Implicit Association and Explicit Intention Among Underage Youth

This study examined whether an implicit association existed between gambling and sport among underage youth in Australia, and whether this implicit association could shape their explicit intention to gamble. A sample of 14–17 year old Australian participants completed two phases of tasks, including an implicit association test based online experiment, and a post-experiment online survey. The results supported the existence of an implicit association between gambling and sport among the participants. This implicit association became stronger when they saw sport-relevant (vs. sport-irrelevant) gambling logos, or gambling-relevant (vs. gambling-irrelevant) sport names. In addition, this implicit association was positively related to the amount of sport viewing, but only among those participants who had more favorable gambling attitudes. Lastly, gambling attitudes and advertising knowledge, rather than the implicit association, turned out to be significant predictors of the explicit intention to gamble.     

为大学生提供一流的教育服务——试论以“顾客”为关注焦点的高校满意测评机制

以"顾客"为关注焦点是新时期高校必须深入理解并加以强化的办学理念,其满意度测评机制的建立和实施是关系高校潜在生命力的重要因素.     

青少年亲社会行为研究

对青少年亲社会行为的发展状况及其与一些人格因素之间的预测关系进行了分析与讨论,并就此对青少年亲社会行为的培养提出了一些参考建议.从个体发展或社会教育的角度看,青少年亲社会行为的发展都应着眼于构建良好的社会和群体环境,并在尊重个体心理发展水平的基础上以自尊的人格素质为核心.     

大学生信用卡消费现象

信用卡消费是近年来在大学校园里面流行起来的一种新的消费方式,本文在概述大学校园信用卡消费现象的基础上,从信用卡本身的特点、银行商业宣传、青年心理特征以及消费主义蔓延等四个方面分析了该现象产生的原因,并对信用卡消费有可能给当代大学生带来的影响作出了一定的思考。     

Retrospective change detection in categorical time series

The aim of this paper is to propose methods of detecting change in the coefficients of a multinomial logistic regression model for categorical time series offline. The alternatives to the null hypothesis of stationarity can be either the hypothesis that it is not true, or that there is a temporary change in the sequence. We use the efficient score vector of the partial likelihood function. This has several advantages. First, the alternative value of the parameter does not have to be estimated; hence, we have a procedure that has a simple structure with only one parameter estimation using all available observations. This is in contrast with the generalized likelihood ratio-based change point tests. The efficient score vector is used in various ways. As a vector, its components correspond to the different components of the multinomial logistic regression model’s parameter vector. Using its quadratic form a test can be defined, where the presence of a change in any or all parameters is tested for. If there are too many parameters one can test for any subset while treating the rest as nuisance parameters. Our motivating example is a DNA sequence of four categories, and our test result shows that in the published data the distribution of the four categories is not stationary.     

An Adaptive Functional Autoregressive Forecast Model to Predict Electricity Price Curves

We propose an adaptive functional autoregressive (AFAR) forecast model to predict electricity price curves. With time-varying operators, the AFAR model can be safely used in both stationary and nonstationary situations. A closed-form maximum likelihood (ML) estimator is derived under stationarity. The result is further extended for nonstationarity, where the time-dependent operators are adaptively estimated under local homogeneity. We provide theoretical results of the ML estimator and the adaptive estimator. Simulation study illustrates nice finite sample performance of the AFAR modeling. The AFAR model also exhibits a superior accuracy in the forecast exercise of the California electricity daily price curves compared to several alternatives.