经济增长是否存在“贫困陷阱”

本文从OLG随机增长模型出发,使用中国城市数据估计参数化的产出运动方程,对人均实际产出分布的动态过程进行模拟预测。研究发现,尽管产出运动方程并非严格凹,但稳态均衡唯一,经济增长未出现"贫困陷阱"。长期来看,地区经济最终趋于单峰收敛,采用离差指数衡量经济发展平衡程度的结果显示,经济发展不平衡程度将有所下降。外生扰动(如技术进步、政策扶持)的持续性越强,经济增长收敛越快。     

Two Adjusted Empirical-Likelihood-Based Methods in Generalized Varying-Coefficient Partially Linear Model

An empirical likelihood method was proposed by Owen and has been extended to many semiparametric and nonparametric models with a continuous response variable. However, there has been less attention focused on the generalized regression model. This article systematically studies two adjusted empirical-likelihood-based methods in the generalized varying-coefficient partially linear models. Based on the popular profile likelihood estimation procedure, the new adjusted empirical likelihood technology for the parameter is established and the resulting statistics are shown to be asymptotically standard chi-square distributed. Further, the adjusted empirical-likelihood-based confidence regions are established, and an efficient adjusted profile empirical-likelihood-based confidence intervals/regions for any components of the parameter, which are of primary interest, is also constructed. Their asymptotic properties are also derived. Some numerical studies are carried out to illustrate the performance of the proposed inference procedures.     

Smoothing Splines with Boundary Correction

Regular smoothing splines are known to have a type of boundary bias problem that can reduce their estimation efficiency. In this paper, a boundary corrected smoothing spline with general order is designed in a way that the risk will decay at an optimal rate. An O(n) algorithm is also developed to compute the resultant estimator efficiently.     

Clear Effects in the 2 n−p Combined Design

The technique of semifolding is used to develop the 2 ^n?p designs. Based on the initial analysis, some factors may be more important than others. In other words, the results from analyzing the original experiment may suggest a specific set of effects to be de-aliased. On the other hand, some previously acquired information might be available for specific factors. In these cases, one may desire to isolate the main effects of these factors and each of their two-factor interactions in the experiments. Four rules that are presented in this article can systematically isolate effects of potential interest, which should serve well for researchers in all disciplines. The combined design, by semifolding, provides estimates of the interactions that involve specific factors so that the alias chains of the two-factor interactions can be broken.     

论自由与正义——孔子自由观及其正义论基础

贡斯当关于古代人的自由与现代人的自由的区分,逻辑地蕴含着作为上位概念的普遍“自由”概念,其内涵是：个人的意志行为在正义的社会规范内不受他人干预。按照这个普遍概念,孔子具有自己的自由观念。这种观念不是境界论的自由观,而是人性论的自由观。“个人的意志行为不受他人干预”是这种自由观的主体性维度,即个体主体具有天然的自由意志;“正义的社会规范”(礼)是这种自由观的规范性维度,即它是以孔子的正义论为基础的。这就是说,自由的规范条件来自两条正义原则,即源于博爱精神(仁)的正当性原则和适应于特定时代基本生活方式的适宜性原则(义)。因此,孔子的自由观念具有两个层面：遵守规范是保守性的自由,而重建规范是建设性的自由。     

灾害短视频的拟像共同体传播：内聚焦叙事、价值转向与纪念仪式

为揭示灾害现场亲历者如何在媒介场域通过“影像文本”将“远处的灾难”的“感知物质空间”转化为大众切身体验的“共通意义空间”,探寻中介化过程中媒介叙事手法的基本机制及其价值转向,本文聚焦于重庆山火现场及土耳其地震亲历者发布的短视频在网络社交媒体“出圈”现象。灾害亲历者以第一人称视角拍摄的短视频通过内聚焦叙事与围观者跨越时空距离进行多维度的信息、情感、价值沟通,在中介化连接与扩散过程中增强“远处的灾难”的可感知度,并寻求社会性协助与支持,在媒介的纪念仪式中实现集体记忆认同的动态协商和反思性重构,由此有助于理解普罗大众“自传记忆”零碎的经验性文本自主传播进入社会公众视野,与专业媒体的职业创作共同构建“拟像共同体”的价值与意义。     

A bivariate density estimation method based on level crossings

This article introduces a method of nonparametric bivariate density estimation based on a bivariate sample level crossing function, which leads to the construction of a bivariate level crossing empirical distribution function (BLCEDF). An efficiency function for this BLCEDF relative to the classical empirical distribution function (EDF), is derived. The BLCEDF gives more efficient estimates than the EDF in the tails of any underlying continuous distribution, for both small and large sample sizes. On the basis of BLCEDF we define a bivariate level crossing kernel density estimator (BLCKDE) and study its properties. We apply the BLCEDF and BLCKDE for various distributions and provide results of simulations that confirm the theoretical properties. A real-world example is given.     

Generalized varying-coefficient single-index model

In this paper, the generalized varying-coefficient single-index model is discussed based on penalized likelihood. All the unknown functions are fitted by penalized spline. The estimates of the unknown parameters and the unknown coefficient functions are obtained and the estimation approach is rapid and computationally stable. Under some mild conditions, the consistency and the asymptotic normality of these resulting estimators are given. Two simulation studies are carried out to illustrate the performance of the estimates. An application of the model to the Hong Kong environmental data further demonstrates the potential of the proposed modelling procedures.     

参考购买力平价对最终购买力平价结果的影响

本文基于2011年国际比较项目(ICP)设定的参考购买力平价(PPP)和亚太地区的数据,分别从定性和定量两个维度对使用参考PPP对更高层级PPP和最终PPP测算结果的影响进行了分析与考察。通过对参考PPP的梳理发现,其与经济现实的匹配性还存在诸多有待商榷的地方,应在加强对参加经济体现实情况了解的基础上进行适时修订。通过对比不使用参考PPP与使用参考PPP的更高层级中国PPP测算结果的变动情况发现,参考PPP的使用对部分小类、中类、大类的PPP测算结果有较大影响,但是对GDP总量PPP的影响有限。因此,ICP一方面应加强与参加经济体统计部门的协调与沟通,优化参考PPP的设计,另一方面应借助现代技术优化数据采集范围和效率,缩小对参考PPP的使用,以此从基础上优化PPP的整体测度水平。