Generalized varying-coefficient single-index model

In this paper, the generalized varying-coefficient single-index model is discussed based on penalized likelihood. All the unknown functions are fitted by penalized spline. The estimates of the unknown parameters and the unknown coefficient functions are obtained and the estimation approach is rapid and computationally stable. Under some mild conditions, the consistency and the asymptotic normality of these resulting estimators are given. Two simulation studies are carried out to illustrate the performance of the estimates. An application of the model to the Hong Kong environmental data further demonstrates the potential of the proposed modelling procedures.     

参考购买力平价对最终购买力平价结果的影响

本文基于2011年国际比较项目(ICP)设定的参考购买力平价(PPP)和亚太地区的数据,分别从定性和定量两个维度对使用参考PPP对更高层级PPP和最终PPP测算结果的影响进行了分析与考察。通过对参考PPP的梳理发现,其与经济现实的匹配性还存在诸多有待商榷的地方,应在加强对参加经济体现实情况了解的基础上进行适时修订。通过对比不使用参考PPP与使用参考PPP的更高层级中国PPP测算结果的变动情况发现,参考PPP的使用对部分小类、中类、大类的PPP测算结果有较大影响,但是对GDP总量PPP的影响有限。因此,ICP一方面应加强与参加经济体统计部门的协调与沟通,优化参考PPP的设计,另一方面应借助现代技术优化数据采集范围和效率,缩小对参考PPP的使用,以此从基础上优化PPP的整体测度水平。     

大学生信教自我预期的影响因素研究

没有任何宗教信仰的大学生对将来信教可能性的"自我预期",受到多种因素的影响。其中,"宗教兴趣"和"宗教评价"对大学生未来信教自我预期有关键影响,其他各种可能的因素均受这两个要素的中介才能发挥作用。因此,高校对大学生宗教信仰现象的应对思路,要从"预防"拓展到"规范"。通过加强马克思主义宗教观教育,尤其是宗教与法律、政治、社会等各层面关系的教育,使大学生都能有意识地在法律框架下理性对待宗教信仰,使他们能够在现代多元宗教环境中,理性、和平地处理信教与不信教、不同宗教之间的关系,辨析正信与邪教,正确理解宗教与国家安全、政经社会的关系。     

Understanding public perceptions of genetically modified organisms in China: The role that heuristics play during digital media exposure

This study explicates the role that heuristics play in influencing Chinese public perceptions of genetically modified organisms (GMO) when they are exposed to digital media. According to the cognitive–affective continuum of heuristics, trust in scientists and negative emotions about GMOs are a cognition-oriented heuristic and an affect heuristic, respectively. The statistical results of an online survey (N?=?414) demonstrated that trust in scientists fully mediated digital media exposure and perceptions of the risks versus benefits of GMOs. In addition, negative emotions moderated the full mediation effect, showing that the indirect effect was stronger in individuals with low levels of negative emotions than in those with high levels of negative emotions. The mediating role of trust in scientists and the moderating role of negative emotions, the two heuristics applied in this study, indicated that when negative emotions were weak, laypeople were more likely to rely on scientists to judge the consequences of GMOs than systematically process the associated information by themselves. The findings have implications for reconsidering the importance of heuristic processing in building reasonable public perceptions of risk-laden technologies through the digital environment.     

Joint modelling of longitudinal binary data and survival data

The medical costs in an ageing society substantially increase when the incidences of chronic diseases, disabilities and inability to live independently are high. Healthy lifestyles not only affect elderly individuals but also influence the entire community. When assessing treatment efficacy, survival and quality of life should be considered simultaneously. This paper proposes the joint likelihood approach for modelling survival and longitudinal binary covariates simultaneously. Because some unobservable information is present in the model, the Monte Carlo EM algorithm and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm are used to find the estimators. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed model based on the accuracy and precision of the estimates. Real data are used to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed model.     

无线人体局域网基带发射模型研究

随着无所不在的医疗保健时代的来临,人体局域网(BAN)受到了国内外研究人员的广泛关注。为了促进人体局域网技术的发展,IEEE 802.15-TG6小组拟定了BAN技术规范草案,该技术规范草案中定义了三个物理层:窄频带、超宽带、人体通信。本文将对BAN窄带物理层发射模型进行研究。BAN基带发射模型包括信道编码、扩频、交织、扰码、调制。根据草案提出的规范,搭建BAN基带发射浮点数模型,并对搭建的模型进行仿真验证。结果表明,在适当的信噪比情况下,搭建的基带发射浮点数模型得到了较理想的误码率,满足了BAN通信技术的要求,为后续BAN物理层研究打下了基础,同时也有利于整个BAN物理层基带的完善。     

Mixture regression models for the gap time distributions and illness–death processes

Lifetime Data Analysis - The aim of this study is to provide an analysis of gap event times under the illness–death model, where some subjects experience “illness” before...