试论青海历史文化的基本特点

青海有约3万年的人类活动史和3000年的文明史,具有灿烂的文化和辉煌的文明。青海历史的发展,既与中国历史的发展具有高度的整体性和关联性,同时又具有自身鲜明的个性特色。青海历史文化的主要特点可以概括为"历史悠久、类型多样、内涵丰富、品质独特、多元互补"几句话。深入研究青海历史文化的特点,对知古见今、深入认识省情、开发青海历史文化资源,具有重要的现实意义。     

全球经济衰退与国际格局的调整

全球经济衰退的发生与国际经济活力的恢复,都与国际政治格局存在着密不可分的关系.国际政治中的权力因素、制度因素和观念因素在经济危机条件下调整的力度,对国际秩序未来的走向具有极大的影响.冷战后形成的国际格局在严重的经济衰退中依然保持了较高的稳定性,但也存在着变革的需要.中国必须对这一问题有清晰的认识,在此基础上才能确定自身需要优先考虑的国际政治目标.     

长株潭城市群政策体系的三维支撑模式

长株潭城市群政策体系得到了初步构建,城市群政策体系的实施平台也逐步搭建起来,但其仍存在诸多不足.长株潭城市群区域发展理念的更新及城市群区域发展的政策制度的不完善促使了城市群政策体系三维支撑模式的提出,模式的构建主要包括省级政府、三市政府和民间社会三个维度.     

A Model of Quality of College Life (QCL) of Students in Korea

This study develops and tests a model of quality of college life (QCL) of students in Korea. In this study, QCL of students is conceptualized in terms of needs satisfaction and affect balance. It has been hypothesized that satisfaction with education services, administrative services, and facilities have a significant impact on QCL, which in turn positively influences identification, positive word of mouth, and overall quality of life. The results of a survey on 228 Korean college students largely support the model. Managerial and policy implications are discussed.     

一套普及可持续发展思想的绿色读物——介绍《可持续发展知多少》多媒体光盘和配画本

广州市社会科学规划领导小组办公室、广州市科学技术普及工作领导小组办公室和广州 2 1世纪议程领导小组办公室在一年多前就联合开展了可持续发展教育的普及工作 ,并在 2 0 0 0年广州市的科技进步活动月和社会科学学术活动周期间配合进行了有关市民科技文化素质的问卷调查。同时积极吸收国内外关于可持续发展战略思想研究的最新成果 ,把组织创作反映可持续发展战略思想的精品生产和宣传普及《广州 2 1世纪议程》结合起来 ,通俗易懂地说明广州实施可持续发展战略将采取什么行动。在编辑出版《可持续发展知多少》和《广州 2 1世纪议程》多媒体…     

长江三角洲区域新一轮经济发展前瞻

中国区域合作的发展正呈现出从“极化发展”向“泛化发展”的新态势,在这一背景下,长三角地区的区域合作也表现出一些新的特点。特别是国家关于《进一步推进长江三角洲地区改革开放和经济社会发展的指导意见》的提出,更为长三角地区的发展提供了新的发展契机和方向。研究《指导意见》,有助于从宏观上把脉长三角地区发展的重点及难点,并为珠三角、京津冀等城市群的发展提供借鉴。     

城市老年人对居家养老服务提供主体的选择及影响因素——基于福利多元主义视角的研究

居家养老是我国社会化养老服务的基础,诞生于西方发达国家的福利多元主义为我国国家主导型社会福利政策和居家养老服务的发展提供了理论资源。当前我国城市地区的居家养老服务主要依靠政府推动,市场化机制开始建立,老年群体对政府、社区依赖较高,对市场化服务供给主体的认可度仍有较大提升空间。加快发展居家养老服务,满足不同社会人口和经济特征老年人的多样化需求是一项社会系统工程。在创建多元化服务格局的过程中,需要政府、企业、社区、社会组织、志愿者、家庭和个人等各方参与主体明确权责,分工协作,扩大有效需求,统筹地区协调发展,凝聚推动供需两旺良性发展的合力。     

Retrospective change detection in categorical time series

The aim of this paper is to propose methods of detecting change in the coefficients of a multinomial logistic regression model for categorical time series offline. The alternatives to the null hypothesis of stationarity can be either the hypothesis that it is not true, or that there is a temporary change in the sequence. We use the efficient score vector of the partial likelihood function. This has several advantages. First, the alternative value of the parameter does not have to be estimated; hence, we have a procedure that has a simple structure with only one parameter estimation using all available observations. This is in contrast with the generalized likelihood ratio-based change point tests. The efficient score vector is used in various ways. As a vector, its components correspond to the different components of the multinomial logistic regression model’s parameter vector. Using its quadratic form a test can be defined, where the presence of a change in any or all parameters is tested for. If there are too many parameters one can test for any subset while treating the rest as nuisance parameters. Our motivating example is a DNA sequence of four categories, and our test result shows that in the published data the distribution of the four categories is not stationary.     

The Generalized Conditional Autoregressive Wishart Model for Multivariate Realized Volatility

It is well known that in finance variances and covariances of asset returns move together over time. Recently, much interest has been aroused by an approach involving the use of the realized covariance (RCOV) matrix constructed from high-frequency returns as the ex-post realization of the covariance matrix of low-frequency returns. For the analysis of dynamics of RCOV matrices, we propose the generalized conditional autoregressive Wishart (GCAW) model. Both the noncentrality matrix and scale matrix of the Wishart distribution are driven by the lagged values of RCOV matrices, and represent two different sources of dynamics, respectively. The GCAW is a generalization of the existing models, and accounts for symmetry and positive definiteness of RCOV matrices without imposing any parametric restriction. Some important properties such as conditional moments, unconditional moments, and stationarity are discussed. Empirical examples including sequences of daily RCOV matrices from the New York Stock Exchange illustrate that our model outperforms the existing models in terms of model fitting and forecasting.     

Penalised spline estimation for generalised partially linear single-index models

Generalised linear models are frequently used in modeling the relationship of the response variable from the general exponential family with a set of predictor variables, where a linear combination of predictors is linked to the mean of the response variable. We propose a penalised spline (P-spline) estimation for generalised partially linear single-index models, which extend the generalised linear models to include nonlinear effect for some predictors. The proposed models can allow flexible dependence on some predictors while overcome the “curse of dimensionality”. We investigate the P-spline profile likelihood estimation using the readily available R package mgcv, leading to straightforward computation. Simulation studies are considered under various link functions. In addition, we examine different choices of smoothing parameters. Simulation results and real data applications show effectiveness of the proposed approach. Finally, some large sample properties are established.