论金融隐私权在我国的构建

信息时代中,个人信息的状况和其所达到的标准,在全球金融市场中地位日益重要,已有取代金钱之势.在金融市场尚在发展的中国,一方面需要尽快建立起一套全国性的信用体系,以满足金融市场的发展需求,另一方面需要与国际接轨,以期更好地参与到全球化进程中,加速经济发展.而这一切都要求对于金融隐私及其相关权利进行规定和加以保护.     

关于兽面纹内涵的探讨

关于兽面纹的内涵的探讨,学者主要提出两种意见,一是关于其图案形式所代表的形象的争论,另一方面是关于其蕴含的宗教文化功能的探讨.而根据兽面纹的的载体青铜器的用途和纹样图案特点分析,兽面纹的内涵应具有时代性和多样性的特征.     

哈马斯的宗教政治特性与其斗争策略的调整

哈马斯是一个宗教与政治紧密结合的组织,其策略既受到伊斯兰教的深刻影响,又与巴以和平进程密切相关。哈马斯根据政治形势的变化适时地调整其斗争策略,特别是在大选获胜后哈马斯斗争策略的调整力度加强,在未来的中东和平进程中,哈马斯会结合其宗教理念在政治上继续调整其策略,以适应中东复杂的形势。     

International Trade and the Urbanization of Developing Countries: Evidence from Asia

Abstract

A grain surplus and the grain trade are closely related to the urbanization of developing countries. However, existing literature has not given adequate attention to this issue. Our paper develops a theoretical model to explain the mechanisms whereby changes in the grain surplus constrain the level of urbanization in a closed economy context and the grain trade affects the level of urbanization by acting on the grain surplus in an open economy context. A test of the theoretical model applied to some developing countries in Asia during the period 1993-2010 shows that international trade is generally negatively correlated with level of urbanization. However, cereal and non-cereal trade vary in terms of their relation to urbanization: whereas the former is positively correlated with level of urbanization, the latter is negatively correlated with it. Since the net import of cereals relaxes the constraint imposed on the level of urbanization by the domestic grain surplus, it can have a marked positive effect on the course of urbanization. Our research findings show that provided grain production or grain security is guaranteed, developing countries may adopt a policy of importing an appropriate amount of grain to increase their level of urbanization.     

Uniform asymptotics for ruin probability of a two-dimensional dependent renewal risk model

ABSTRACT

In this paper we consider the tail behavior of a two-dimensional dependent renewal risk model with two dependent classes of insurance business, in which the claim sizes are governed by a common renewal counting process, and their inter-arrival times are dependent, identically distributed. For the case that the claim size distribution belongs to the intersection of long-tailed distribution class and dominant variation class, we obtain an asymptotic formula, which holds uniformly for all time in an infinite interval. Moreover, we point out that the formula still holds uniformly for all time in an infinite interval for widely dependent random variables (r.v.s) under some conditions.     

读懂《多余的话》的一些想法

瞿秋白在《多余的话》中通过自我否定、自我丑化,自制了一个负面形象的瞿秋白,目的是要使杨之华厌恶自己,忘却自己.他不愿因自己的死给亲人留下巨大的伤痛.瞿秋白的这一良苦用心也给《多余的话》带来不应有的负面效应.《多余的话》中有真话、反话,也有不少夸大真实的话,读懂《多余的话》,不能望文生义.     

农民进城和我国早期城市化——历史的追索与思考

文章是从农民进城的角度讨论我国早期城市化,内容包括早期城市化出现的历史前提,农民进城为城市发展带来新动力,也给城市管理带来新挑战,以及进城农民在新的生活环境下的竞争和压力.上述虽不是早期城市化的全部,但亦是其中的重要内容.     

要切实提高反腐倡廉的制度执行力

制度反腐是我们党反对腐败的根本战略,包含反腐倡廉制度体系构建和制度执行两个方面的内容。随着制度体系的不断完善,制度执行的重要性越来越凸显出来。目前,由于在制度设计、组成、执行、管理、环境等方面存在着不足,在反腐倡廉制度的贯彻执行中还存在不少问题。提高反腐倡廉的制度执行力,应当从健全制度质量控制机制、宣传教育机制、监督检查机制、奖励惩处机制等几个方面着手。     

我国贫困人口的脆弱度与贫困动态

 在贫困脆弱性和贫困动态理论的逻辑归纳与阐述基础上，利用辽宁省重点贫困县调查样本数据，采用聚类分析、脆弱度分析以及敏感度分析等方法实际测度了贫困县贫困状态的分布情况和脆弱程度；从贫困动态的角度，对贫困户1997～2006年间的贫困发生频次、深度及持续时段进行了统计分析。研究发现，各个贫困县的贫困脆弱性程度存在一定的差异，且受多重致贫因素的影响呈现出一定的类型分布特征；贫困动态的分析在一定程度上支持了贫困脆弱度的结果；贫困时段分析与以往研究发现略有不同，呈现出“暂时贫困”和“长期贫困”二者“并重”的特征，而非“单一分布”的“偏态”， 真正有效率的扶贫救济制度应当准确地锁定在持续贫困的家庭上，政策相应地要具有差异性和弹性，这样才有可能快速及时的解决攻坚阶段的贫困问题。     

A segmented regime-switching model with its application to stock market indices

This paper evaluates the ability of a Markov regime-switching log-normal (RSLN) model to capture the time-varying features of stock return and volatility. The model displays a better ability to depict a fat tail distribution as compared with using a log-normal model, which means that the RSLN model can describe observed market behavior better. Our major objective is to explore the capability of the model to capture stock market behavior over time. By analyzing the behavior of calibrated regime-switching parameters over different lengths of time intervals, the change-point concept is introduced and an algorithm is proposed for identifying the change-points in the series corresponding to the times when there are changes in parameter estimates. This algorithm for identifying change-points is tested on the Standard and Poor's 500 monthly index data from 1971 to 2008, and the Nikkei 225 monthly index data from 1984 to 2008. It is evident that the change-points we identify match the big events observed in the US stock market and the Japan stock market (e.g., the October 1987 stock market crash), and that the segmentations of stock index series, which are defined as the periods between change-points, match the observed bear–bull market phases.