塔里木河中游地区草湖环境的演变——基于清末至民国草湖纠纷事件的讨论

清末至民国,发生在塔里木河中游地区的三起草湖纠纷事件,反映了草湖地区的人地关系趋于紧张.经过研究,我们发现引起草湖纠纷的因素来自于平原绿洲区,即快速增长的人口及其不断增长的需求对草湖环境产生了极大的压力.草湖地区人类不合理的开发活动,加剧了塔里木河汊流的发育,使塔里木河水散失日益严重,最终造成草湖环境的不断退化;甚至酿成了1921年塔里木河下游河道的改道.     

试析《逃离》中弗洛拉的神话隐喻

艾丽丝·门罗的短篇小说《逃离》,表面上书写的是在中年危机和琐碎中挣扎的女性,展示的是卡拉的欲望和遗憾,坚强和软弱.实际上门罗通过借用古希腊神话和《圣经》典故,将小说中的女性与神话意象相互联系.通过分析门罗小说中具有代表性的原型——山羊弗洛拉,发掘出原型背后小说的意义,同时加深对门罗女性观的理解.     

Fractional Brownian motion and clinical trials

The purpose of this paper is to extend the widely used classical Brownian motion technique for monitoring clinical trial data to a larger class of stochastic processes, i.e. fractional Brownian motion, and compare these results. The beta-blocker heart attack trial is presented as an example to illustrate both methods.     

简捷·夸张·幽默——从《包氏父子》和《华威先生》看张天翼小说的讽刺艺术个性

张天翼的讽刺小说显示了特独的艺术个性。它是通过戏剧性的片断构思讽刺典型 ,通过夸张和对比手法揭示人物内涵 ,运用了幽默、尖峭的讽刺语言     

商业经营和发展的决定规律:降低顾客成本

通过顾客价值理论分析,商业经营现象抽象和商业发展历史考证得出:提升顾客价值就是增加顾客效用和降低顾客成本;商业经营实质就是降低顾客成本,商业发展历史就是降低顾客成本的演变史;认识降低顾客成本规律是商业经营和发展的创新思维,是商业经营理念和经营方针的深化和创新。     

Asymptotic Distribution of the Estimated BDS Statistic from The Residuals of Location-Scale Type Processes

We introduce local asymptotic normality (LAN) for the log-likelihood ratio and the contiguity property of a class of location-scale processes in this paper. Using the contiguity property, we study the asymptotic distribution of the estimated Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman (BDS) statistic from the standardized residuals of fitting location-scale type processes.     

Using Weight Functions in Spatial Point Pattern Analysis with Application to Plant Ecology Data

This paper presents procedures for percentile estimation in the three-parameter inverse Gaussian (IG3) and the two-parameter inverse Gaussian (IG2) distributions. All procedures require first the estimation of distribution parameters and second the computation of the desired quantile at the estimated parameters. Parameter estimation is accomplished by maximum likelihood (ML) or a mixed moments (MXM) method. A Newton-Rahpson (NR) procedure is used for inverting the CDF. Simulation and asymptotic results are given for the resulting estimators. Two sets of real data are used to illustrate the procedures.     

A comment on sample size calculations for binomial confidence intervals

In this article we examine sample size calculations for a binomial proportion based on the confidence interval width of the Agresti–Coull, Wald and Wilson Score intervals. We pointed out that the commonly used methods based on known and fixed standard errors cannot guarantee the desired confidence interval width given a hypothesized proportion. Therefore, a new adjusted sample size calculation method was introduced, which is based on the conditional expectation of the width of the confidence interval given the hypothesized proportion. With the reduced sample size, the coverage probability can still maintain at the nominal level and is very competitive to the converge probability for the original sample size.