Modeling household fertility decisions with generalized Poisson regression

This paper models household fertility decisions by using a generalized Poisson regression model. Since the fertility data used in the paper exhibit under-dispersion, the generalized Poisson regression model has statistical advantages over both standard Poisson and negative binomial regression models, and is suitable for analysis of count data that exhibit either over-dispersion or under-dispersion. The model is estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. Approximate tests for the dispersion and goodness-of-fit measures for comparing alternative models are discussed. Based on observations from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics of 1989 interviewing year, the empirical results support the fertility hypothesis of Becker and Lewis (1973). Received January 7, 1997 /Accepted April 3, 1997     

Speech at the UN International Conference on Population,Mexico City,August, 1984

In seeking a solution to its population problem, China, as a developing socialist country, has been making unremitting efforts to develop economy while controlling the rapid growth. The objective is to control rapid population growth so that population growth may be in keeping with socioeconomic development and commensurate with utilization of natural resources and environmental protection. In the past decade, and particularly since 1979, China has made much progress in developing economy and gained remarkable successes in controlling population growth. The natural population growth rate dropped to 1.15% in 1983, from 2.089% in 1973. Living standards have improved with a gradual annual increase of per capita income. All this proves that the policy of promoting family planning to control population growth along with planned economic development is correct. In China family planning is a basic state policy. The government has advocated the practice of "1 couple, 1 child" since 1979. This does not mean that 1 couple could have 1 child only in every case. The government provides guidance for the implementation of family planning programs in the light of specific conditions such as economic developments, cultural background, population structure, and the wishes of the people in different localities. The requirements are more flexible in rural than in urban areas and more so among the people of national minorities than among the people of the Han Nationality. In rural areas, couples who have actual difficulties and want to have 2 children may have a 2nd birth with planned spacing. In carrying out its family planning program, China has consistently adhered to the principle of integrating state guidance with the masses' voluntariness. The government has always emphasized the importance of encouraging the people's own initiatives, through publicity and education, which is the key link in implementing the family planning program.     

A study on mortality rates and expectation of life at birth in demography]

An "age-time-area diagram" (referred to as a-t diagram) which is used as the basis for discussing different used and applications of variously defined mortality rates, as well two kinds of measurements for life expectancy is proprosed. The proposal is built upon the Lexis diagram. The a-t diagram is used to define a new way of measuring child mortality, projecting population, and proposing a formula for measuring successive and nonsuccessive life expectancy.     

蓖麻粗毒蛋白的提取及灭鼠试验

研究了从蓖麻籽和蓖麻饼粕中提取蓖麻粗毒蛋白的工艺条件,并对其进行了灭鼠试验。结果表明：这两种蓖麻粗毒蛋白杀鼠活性明显,小鼠死亡率均达100％。从对小鼠的致死速度来看,两者相差不大。这为进一步分离提纯杀鼠活性成分提供了基础,也为蓖麻作为植物源灭鼠剂的开发提供了依据。     

文化“汇流”:华人艺术家周文中与中华文化对外传播途径研究

努力提高中华文化的国际影响力是目前及未来一段时间我国对外传播工作的重中之重。而要提高国际影响力就要打破世界文化舞台上的“西方中心主义”,为中华文化的对外交流与传播创造有利条件。在这个问题上,著名美籍华人作曲家周文中倡导并践行的东西方文化“汇流”理念具有重要的借鉴意义。首先,传统与现代的汇流推动东西融合、古今一体,促进传统文化创新性发展。其次,经验与情感的汇流可以增进认知,建立好感,营造顺畅、有利的传播环境。最后,本土与国际的汇流有助于培养重视艺术传统、具备国际视野、贯通中西的艺术接班人。据此,以周文中为代表的华人艺术家借助中西方在“知识上”和“情感上”的共通之处,破除了“西方中心主义”并为中华文化更好地“走出去”创造了条件。其有益经验为不同文明交流互鉴、共同发展及当代中华文化对外传播提供了借鉴。     

网络时代农产品质量安全事件风险放大机制研究——基于价值累加理论的扎根分析

随着互联网的飞速发展,农产品质量安全事件借助网络媒体持续关联与聚合、发酵与扩散,极大地影响着公众的情感和态度,易引发集体非理性恐慌,网络时代信息扩散和迭代呈现全新特征和趋势,故加强农产品质量安全事件风险放大机制研究具有重要意义。基于斯梅尔塞的价值累加理论,结合“土坑酸菜”事件,利用Python技术获取媒体原始资料,对资料进行扎根编码分析,构建农产品质量安全事件风险放大机制模型。根据编码结果识别出农产品质量安全事件风险放大六大主范畴,包括结构性诱因、结构性紧张、一般化信念、(有效的)组织动员、社会控制、风险放大,将主范畴内容纳入价值累加理论六大因素中,分析表明农产品质量安全事件风险放大是以突发事件为分界点,分为前期蓄势、中期造势、紧急处理三个阶段,前期蓄势和中期造势阶段通过多轮循环相互反馈影响,最终放大农产品质量安全事件风险。在整个风险扩散过程中,网络是农产品质量安全事件风险的“社会放大站”,其加速了信息传播,强化了公众风险感知。本研究运用价值累加理论、基于宏观和微观整合层面,细化探究了网络时代农产品质量安全事件风险放大的完整过程机制,进一步完善了风险放大SARF研究框架,为相关研究做了有益补充。     

电商参与会促进农户农产品质量认证吗?——基于黄土高原苹果优势产区农户的分析

作为数字经济新业态的农产品电子商务成为促进农业高质量发展的有效途径。基于黄土高原苹果优势产区农户实地调研数据,使用多维固定效应模型分析电商参与对农户农产品质量认证的影响;利用中介效应模型和KHB方法剖析电商参与促进农户农产品质量认证的作用机制。研究结果表明:电商参与能够显著提升农户农产品质量认证的概率,同时增加了多重质量认证的可能;参与电商通过提高农户农产品质量认证意愿、增加农产品市场信息以及促进农产品品牌建设三个途径影响农产品质量认证。在此基础上,提出应加强农村信息基础设施建设与电商技术培训,提高农产品质量认证和品牌推广等对策,以此促进农户进行农产品质量认证,实现农业高质量发展。     

抗美援朝时期东北人民代表团活动考述

抗美援朝战争时期,中朝边境由于经常受到美军飞机的空中侦察,甚至是轰炸、扫射,造成了大量人员伤亡和财产损失,由此,全国范围内广泛开展了针对美国侵略暴行的控诉活动。1951年,东北人民组成代表团在北京开展了一系列控诉美国侵略暴行的活动,举办控诉美国侵略暴行大会、举行美机轰炸东北暴行罪证展览会、参加首都各界反对美国侵略座谈会等。这些活动向全世界人民有力地揭露了美国侵略暴行,加深了国际社会对美国侵略本质的认识,激起了全国人民的爱国热情,提振了战胜敌人的信心,具有重要的社会影响和历史意义。     

营造“包容性空间”:国际化社区的治理策略研究

营造包容性空间,构建包容性社会,加快推进空间治理的现代化进程,是现代化治理的重要目标。基于江苏省南京市Q社区的空间营造案例,从社区空间营造策略的视角出发,剖析国际化社区如何营造包容性空间。研究发现,基层政府基于中国居民与外籍人士的空间服务需求,运用多元参与、互动协商、文化治理等软性手段,通过建设人与居住地、社会、自然相融合的表征的包容性空间,组织温度、服务与文化协同相融的包容性空间的实践,构筑开放、包容与共享的包容性空间的表征等方式营造包容性空间。在营造包容性空间的过程中,基层政府空间营造行动的关键策略是采用“分型管理、内育外引”的主体包容策略、“内外兼修、空间包容”的技术包容策略、“多元网格、协商自治”的制度包容策略及“制度共融、成果共享”的结果包容策略,其根本目标在于打造国际化社区的治理共同体。包容性空间的治理技术对优化基层政府的空间治理能力、提升居民的参与水平与再造国际化社区秩序有积极效应,但亦潜藏多主体协同失序、政社关系掣肘、族群关系区隔、文化不稳定及包容性制度偏差等失灵风险。因此,基层政府需厚植多主体合作的治理机制、经营包容性空间的“适度性”,以利于国际化社区善治目标的实现。     

健全粮食安全利益保障体系的机制设计与政策建议

发挥经济激励对国家粮食安全的保障作用至关重要。经过多年来的实践探索,我国基本建立起多维立体的涉粮激励政策体系,形成了稳定粮农收入、优化营商环境、调动产区积极性和保障消费者可得性的政策框架,但仍存在种粮农民利润空间压缩、粮油加工业后劲潜力不足、粮食主产区高产穷县等问题。针对粮食安全利益保障水平较低背后成因,探索构建以实现“产得出、运得到、买得起”为目标、协调粮食产业链利益相关主体关系、充分释放经济效益在保障粮食安全中作用的机制,并提出健全粮食安全利益保障体系的对策建议:一是优化补贴政策,强化政策保本功能;二是加快发展农业社会化服务,实现经营增效;三是协调产业链主体关系;四是逐步健全主产区利益补偿机制;五是健全应急储备及市场调节机制。