A Discourse on the Incorporation of Organizational Factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Key Questions and Categorical Review

This article presents a discourse on the incorporation of organizational factors into probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)/probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), a topic of debate since the 1980s that has spurred discussions among industry, regulatory agencies, and the research community. The main contributions of this article include (1) identifying the four key open questions associated with this topic; (2) framing ongoing debates by considering differing perspectives around each question; (3) offering a categorical review of existing studies on this topic to justify the selection of each question and to analyze the challenges related to each perspective; and (4) highlighting the directions of research required to reach a final resolution for each question. The four key questions are: (I) How significant is the contribution of organizational factors to accidents and incidents? (II) How critical, with respect to improving risk assessment, is the explicit incorporation of organizational factors into PRA? (III) What theoretical bases are needed for explicit incorporation of organizational factors into PRA? (IV) What methodological bases are needed for the explicit incorporation of organizational factors into PRA? Questions I and II mainly analyze PRA literature from the nuclear domain. For Questions III and IV, a broader review and categorization is conducted of those existing cross-disciplinary studies that have evaluated the effects of organizational factors on safety (not solely PRA-based) to shed more light on future research needs.     

GIS‐Based Integration of Social Vulnerability and Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Advance Emergency Preparedness,Planning, and Response for Severe Nuclear Power Plant Accidents

In the nuclear power industry, Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is used to estimate damage to public health and the environment if a severe accident leads to large radiological release. Current Level 3 PRA does not have an explicit inclusion of social factors and, therefore, it is not possible to perform importance ranking of social factors for risk‐informing emergency preparedness, planning, and response (EPPR). This article offers a methodology for adapting the concept of social vulnerability, commonly used in natural hazard research, in the context of a severe nuclear power plant accident. The methodology has four steps: (1) calculating a hazard‐independent social vulnerability index for the local population; (2) developing a location‐specific representation of the maximum radiological hazard estimated from current Level 3 PRA, in a geographic information system (GIS) environment; (3) developing a GIS‐based socio‐technical risk map by combining the social vulnerability index and the location‐specific radiological hazard; and (4) conducting a risk importance measure analysis to rank the criticality of social factors based on their contribution to the socio‐technical risk. The methodology is applied using results from the 2012 Surry Power Station state‐of‐the‐art reactor consequence analysis. A radiological hazard model is generated from MELCOR accident consequence code system, translated into a GIS environment, and combined with the Center for Disease Control social vulnerability index (SVI). This research creates an opportunity to explicitly consider and rank the criticality of location‐specific SVI themes based on their influence on risk, providing input for EPPR.     

International Business and Entrepreneurship Implications of Brexit

This paper provides an overview of the international business and entrepreneurship implications of Brexit. Our perspective is preliminary and based on a review of the practitioner, policy and academic literature over the first month following the Brexit vote. We highlight some of the potentially negative consequences for markets in the UK and around the world that result from barriers to trade and immigration associated with the uncertainty created by Brexit.     

Relationship between the weighted distributions and some inequality measures

In this paper, we study the relationships between the weighted distributions and the parent distributions in the context of Lorenz curve, Lorenz ordering and inequality measures. These relationships depend on the nature of the weight functions and give rise to interesting connections. The properties of weighted distributions for general weight functions are also investigated. It is shown how to derive and to determine characterizations related to Lorenz curve and other inequality measures for the cases weight functions are increasing or decreasing. Some of the results are applied for special cases of the weighted distributions. We represent the reliability measures of weighted distributions by the inequality measures to obtain some results. Length-biased and equilibrium distributions have been discussed as weighted distributions in the reliability context by concentration curves. We also review and extend the problem of stochastic orderings and aging classes under weighting. Finally, the relationships between the weighted distribution and transformations are discussed.     

Anxiety and fear of childbirth as predictors of postnatal depression in nulliparous women

Background and purposePerinatal mental health problems have been studied in more than 90% of high income countries but this information is available only for 10% of low and middle income countries. A study on the relationship between anxiety during pregnancy and postpartum depression has not been performed in Iran. This prospective study aimed to investigate whether anxiety and fear of childbirth during pregnancy is an independent predictor of postpartum depressive symptoms.MethodsIn this prospective longitudinal study participants were 160 women with a gestational age of 28–30 weeks from 10 prenatal care clinics in Qom, Iran. Subjects were interviewed and the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) and Childbirth Attitudes Questionnaire (CAQ) were completed at 28 and 38 weeks of gestation. They were followed up 45 days and 3 months after childbirth. Postpartum depression was defined as a score ≥ 13 on the Edinburgh Postpartum Depression Scale (EPDS).ResultsAntenatal state anxiety (odds ratio [OR] = 3.2; P = 0.002 and OR = 2.91; P = 0.007 at 28 and 38 weeks of gestation, respectively) and trait anxiety (OR = 3.33; P = 0.001 and OR = 3.30; P = 0.003 at 28 and 38 weeks of gestation, respectively) increased the risk of postpartum depression 45 days after birth (P < 0.05). Likewise, the presence of antenatal state and trait anxiety at 28 and 38 weeks of gestation significantly increased the risk of postpartum depression during the first three months after childbirth (P < 0.05). On the contrary, prenatal fear of childbirth was not a significant predictor of postpartum depression symptoms (P > 0.05).ConclusionsThe findings from this study suggest that antenatal state and trait anxiety, assessed by interview, is an important predictor of postpartum depression. Therefore, it should be routinely screened in order to develop specific preventive interventions.     

The Evolving Firm: How Dynamic and Operating Capabilities Interact to Enable Entrepreneurship

In this study, we expand our understanding of firm evolution by focusing on how operating and dynamic capabilities interact through endogenously led changes. The focus on endogenous change complements the current emphasis in the literature on how dynamic capabilities help firms cope with the risk of core rigidities following an exogenous shock. Our comparison of two collaborating firms shows that, at the operating capability level, firms build absorptive capacity in value networks during their product development experiences and this learning needs to be captured at the product portfolio planning level. When this learning is captured and transformed, product portfolio planning acts as a dynamic capability reconfiguring operating capabilities based on beliefs about follow-on entrepreneurial opportunities. Under conditions of endogenous change, dynamic capabilities are guided by a proactive entrepreneurial logic, complementing the need for reactive adaptive responses in circumstances of exogenous change. A key implication is that dynamic capabilities have a more expansive and critical role in the adaptation of firms than previously considered. Our theorizing shows how interactions between dynamic and operating capabilities build the adaptive capacity of the organization.     

Supply chain configuration for diffusion of new products: An integrated optimization approach

We develop an integrated/hybrid optimization model for configuring new products’ supply chains while explicitly considering the impact of demand dynamics during new products’ diffusion. The hybrid model simultaneously determines optimal production/sales plan and supply chain configuration. The production and sales plan provides decisions on the optimal timing to launch a new product, as well as the production and sales quantity in each planning period. The supply chain configuration provides optimal selection of options and safety stock level kept at each supply chain function. Extensive computational experiments on randomly generated testbed problems indicate that the hybrid modeling and solution approach significantly outperforms non-hybrid alternative modeling and solution approaches under various diffusion and supply chain topologies. We provide insights on optimal production/sales plan and supply chain configuration for new products during their diffusion process. Also, managerial implications relevant to effectiveness of the hybrid approach are discussed.     

First-session competency: the brief strategic therapy scale-1

The first session in brief strategic therapy is the most critical phase of treatment. More than a mere "assessment phase," the first session in a true intervention sets the stage for all subsequent therapeutic maneuvers. This article presents a supervisory observation tool, the Brief Strategic Therapy Scale-1 (BSTS-1), a fidelity measure proposed as a more formal method of analyzing performance and competency of the therapist for the first session. During scale development, a narrow group of expert judges defined the core skills of therapists and determined the structure/phases of a brief strategic therapy first session. In addition, expert collaborators gave feedback on the scale's usability. This article concludes with the BSTS-1.     

最大化组织科学的影响:学科与学术领域交叉处的理论构建

学科与学术领域的交叉处为创造性的理论构建提供了重要机会。本文中,我们提出了在学科交叉处构建理论的3种模式,并强调了这3种模式的优势与不足。我们运用"影响轮(impact wheel)"把3种模式相互联系起来,直观地描述了它们对理论、学术领域、学科、研究者和外部相关者等五大范围的影响。尽管3种模式对这些方面的影响不尽相同,但当在学科交叉处的理论建构可以修订现有学科和学术领域边界,并产生新的学科和学术领域时,其影响最大。这样的理论建构并不常见,并且需要研究者具有挖掘组织科学更多潜能的特定技巧。