Variable selection and weighted composite quantile estimation of regression parameters with left-truncated data

In this paper, we consider the weighted composite quantile regression for linear model with left-truncated data. The adaptive penalized procedure for variable selection is proposed. The asymptotic normality and oracle property of the resulting estimators are also established. Simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed methods.     

Bootstrap methods for stationary functional time series

Bootstrap methods for estimating the long-run covariance of stationary functional time series are considered. We introduce a versatile bootstrap method that relies on functional principal component analysis, where principal component scores can be bootstrapped by maximum entropy. Two other bootstrap methods resample error functions, after the dependence structure being modeled linearly by a sieve method or nonlinearly by a functional kernel regression. Through a series of Monte-Carlo simulation, we evaluate and compare the finite-sample performances of these three bootstrap methods for estimating the long-run covariance in a functional time series. Using the intraday particulate matter (\(\hbox {PM}_{10}\)) dataset in Graz, the proposed bootstrap methods provide a way of constructing the distribution of estimated long-run covariance for functional time series.     

The size and structure of China's government debt

This paper analyzes the size and structure of China's government debt. In addition to explicit government debt, we consider three types of government contingent liabilities: local government debt, university debt, and state banks’ nonperforming loans. The size of each types of debt is estimated and the reasons for the emergence of each type of debt are analyzed. International comparisons are made and it is found that China's government debt is larger than many other developing countries. To insure fiscal sustainability and to leave rooms for future expansionary fiscal policies, the government should reduce contingent liabilities.     

沃勒斯坦世界体系理论的价值及其困境

20世纪70年代,美国学者沃勒斯坦创立的世界体系理论在学术界产生了巨大反响。作为历史导向的马克思主义理论,它把世界体系分析与马克思主义结合起来,丰富了对马克思主义理论的理解。由于缺乏一套科学的社会历史理论,沃勒斯坦在重建世界体系的努力中陷入了悲观主义和历史虚无主义的困境。现从沃勒斯坦世界体系理论的思想渊源入手,在唯物史观的视域下审视世界体系理论的当代价值和内在困境,从总体上把握世界体系分析范式的合理内核和内在启示,进而彰显马克思主义理论强大生命力。它为全面认识社会发展问题提供了重要思路,也为全球化背景下探寻适合发展中国家自身的现代化模式提供了借鉴。     

生命时长还是生命质量?--凉山州B县HIV/AIDS感染女性抗病毒治疗的地方性构建

本文以四川省凉山州B县彝族HIV/AIDS感染女性①抗病毒治疗的具体实践为脉络,探讨作为医学技术的抗病毒治疗在凉山州彝族地方社会中的现实遭遇。凉山州彝族HIV/AIDS感染女性在医学话语规训的服药持续性与实际服药的间歇性和阶段性之间看似个体行为选择的矛盾,实则反映出国际医疗技术要求的同质性与地方治疗实践的异质性之间的张力,由此凸显文化与社会因素在艾滋病防治中的重要作用,为理解如何提升民族地区抗病毒治疗的依从性,从而为有效提高当地妇女的健康水平提供了思考与解读的逻辑。     

OECD国家遗产税政策实践及其启示

财富分配不公已成为一个世界性难题,遗产税作为调节财富公平的一种政策工具,在全球得到了广泛引用。通过分析OECD国家的遗产税政策实践发现：首先,遗产税更多是一种促进财富公平的政策符号而不是财政融资的主要工具;其次,遗产税可以作为个人所得税和房产税的有益补充以促进公平分配;再次,征收遗产税需要一定的社会文化基础和完备的财产登记、评估制度;最后,面对日益拉大的贫富差距,我国可考虑在营改增顺利完成和新一轮个人所得税和房地产税改革后,在“十四五”期间考虑开征遗产税。     

“微笑曲线”视角下中国客车制造行业竞争战略及其优化

为了深入研究 “微笑曲线”在中国客车制造行业的应用价值,从客车制造行业价值链的各个环节入手,通过对产业链上、中、下游各环节附加值的分析,从理论知识层面制定出中国客车制造行业竞争战略优化方案,并且在解读“微笑曲线”模型以及对现阶段中国客车制造企业竞争策略剖析的基础上,进一步提出中国客车制造行业“微笑曲线”。研究表明,中国客车制造行业通过自主创新和技术引进构建企业核心竞争力,在采取外包中游制造业的同时,拓展下游品牌销售,可以确保持续性的附加价值和永续性的经营价值,以实现中国客车制造行业的转型和升级。     

孙中山争取中华民族道德话语权研究

孙中山争取中华民族道德话语权的研究,对当代提升中国道德话语权具有十分重要的价值。孙中山一生筚路蓝缕,颠覆了满清封建王朝的道德话语权,扬弃了西方资本主义的道德话语权,第一次争得了中国民族资产阶级的道德话语权。孙中山提出的"国族"概念,开启了爱国主义道德话语的先河,孙中山争取中华民族道德话语权的方法对当代中国道德话语权的建立具有借鉴意义,孙中山的资产阶级话语权为社会主义核心价值观提供了重要的文化资源。     

Receive or give? Contemporary views among middle-aged and older Chinese adults on filial piety and well-being in Hong Kong

This qualitative study aimed to examine the contemporary interpretation of filial piety by middle-aged and older Chinese adults in Hong Kong, and to explore its relationship with well-being in later life through focus groups. Data analysis revealed that all participants subscribed to the traditional value of filial piety, but had willingly reduced their filial expectations of their younger generation. Importantly, well-being in later life was found to be affected by both the younger generation’s filial commitments and older parents’ continued support of their younger generation so that the latter could lead a better life.     

基于内生增长理论与GVAR模型的能源消费控制目标下经济增长与碳减排研究

本文通过引入使用可替代能源生产的中间产品,构建能源约束和碳排放约束下的内生经济增长模型,并运用全局向量自回归(GVAR)模型,实证分析了具有空间关联性的中国各省(区市)能源消费控制对经济增长和碳排放的动态影响。研究结果表明:在不影响经济增长且受碳排放约束条件下完成能源消费总量考核的目标,可以通过研发可再生能源、提高碳排放清洁技术水平、增加碳基能源的边际产出等实现;能源消费总量的考核目标对能源消费强依赖地区约束性较强,对其余地区的约束力较弱,其余地区可节能潜力较强;能源结构逆向调整的存在使得控制能源消费总量对少部分省(区市)无法达到减排效果。进一步地,本文实证分析了目前节能减排实施过程中可能存在的问题:科技进步对能源结构顺向调整效果不显著、可再生新能源的研究效率低下,技术进步对碳排放清洁方面无显著效果;依靠传统能源价格的调整虽能有效减排却会抑制经济增长。