基于熵理论的河北省可持续发展水平评价研究

根据2000—2009年国家统计年鉴中河北省的有关数据，选取有代表性的指标，构造评价可持续发展水平的指标体系，并采用熵理论确定各指标的权重，以观察近10年来河北省经济社会可持续发展的具体情况。实证研究结果表明：河北省正逐渐迈向可持续发展的道路,但任重道远。根据省际具体情况，在实证研究的基础上，就河北省经济社会的长期可持续发展提出了若干建议。     

美国青少年公民道德教育审视与思考

建立和完善对青少年进行公民道德教育的机制是美国教育的特色之一。长期以来，美国在对青少年进行公民道德教育的过程中，形成了特有的人本化、个性化的教育理念，多样性、灵活性的教育方法，渗透性、社会性的教育途径，充分发挥了政治性、阶级性的教育功能，有着一整套独特的理论与实践体系，对青少年公民道德素质培养提高发挥了重要作用。通过对美国青少年进行公民道德教育的内容和运行机制的分析审视，借鉴其成功的经验和做法，可以提高我国青少年公民道德教育的实效性。     

耿孟刚作品欣赏

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Robust Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects modeling of time to positivity in tuberculosis trials

Early phase 2 tuberculosis (TB) trials are conducted to characterize the early bactericidal activity (EBA) of anti‐TB drugs. The EBA of anti‐TB drugs has conventionally been calculated as the rate of decline in colony forming unit (CFU) count during the first 14 days of treatment. The measurement of CFU count, however, is expensive and prone to contamination. Alternatively to CFU count, time to positivity (TTP), which is a potential biomarker for long‐term efficacy of anti‐TB drugs, can be used to characterize EBA. The current Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects (NLME) regression model for TTP data, however, lacks robustness to gross outliers that often are present in the data. The conventional way of handling such outliers involves their identification by visual inspection and subsequent exclusion from the analysis. However, this process can be questioned because of its subjective nature. For this reason, we fitted robust versions of the Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects regression model to a wide range of TTP datasets. The performance of the explored models was assessed through model comparison statistics and a simulation study. We conclude that fitting a robust model to TTP data obviates the need for explicit identification and subsequent “deletion” of outliers but ensures that gross outliers exert no undue influence on model fits. We recommend that the current practice of fitting conventional normal theory models be abandoned in favor of fitting robust models to TTP data.     

新媒介背景的儿童类纸质媒体发展取向

数字媒介技术的革新加剧了“图像革命”，造成了人的思考能力的滑坡．这一影响加之于儿童则更加明显。儿童作为特殊且脆弱的社会群体，极易陷入新媒介所搅动的文化漩涡中，传统阅读这一儿童基础性认知技能遭遇到严峻考验。儿童类纸质媒体应充分发挥独有优势，与儿童类数字媒体展开错位竞争。从儿童文化内容的创作生产、儿童文化产品的销售渠道、儿童文化消费的最终实现三个层面完成自身的发展与跨越。     

Trends in Mortality Decrease and Economic Growth

The vast literature on extrapolative stochastic mortality models focuses mainly on the extrapolation of past mortality trends and summarizes the trends by one or more latent factors. However, the interpretation of these trends is typically not very clear. On the other hand, explanation methods are trying to link mortality dynamics with observable factors. This serves as an intermediate step between the two methods. We perform a comprehensive analysis on the relationship between the latent trend in mortality dynamics and the trend in economic growth represented by gross domestic product (GDP). Subsequently, the Lee-Carter framework is extended through the introduction of GDP as an additional factor next to the latent factor, which provides a better fit and better interpretable forecasts.     

关于三分Cantor集的结构的一些新结论

旨在采用代数的方法来研究三分Cantor集的结构特点。主要结果除了给出三分Cantor集的代数构造外还定义了仿四进位；结合代数构造、拓扑构造以及仿四进位分别给出并证明了三分Cantor集及其余集的结构公式，从而改进了已有的结论。     

乙二醇机组的温度模糊控制器设计与仿真

针对我国通信行业和计算机行业大型机房耗电量大的现状，提出了一种乙二醇机组控制系统。介绍了它的工作原理，阐述了它的总体控制方案，并重点阐述了采用温度模糊PID控制器对室内温度进行调节。仿真和实验结果表明：采用温度模糊控制器的系统运行稳定、可靠性高、节能效果明显，具有广阔的应用前景。     

宗教应对:少数民族压力应对研究的新视角

宗教与应对密切相关,当宗教的行为和思想用于压力应对时,这样的应对便称为宗教应对。文中对宗教应对的内涵、宗教对我国少数民族压力应对的影响进行了阐述,指出宗教应对是少数民族压力应对的一种特殊方式,包括宗教行为应对和宗教思想应对。研究少数民族宗教应对具有重要的现实意义。