理论观照与实践反思:乡村振兴道路背景下产业融合探究

为从全球性现代化的视野观察中国现代化道路,通过在湖北西部（鄂西南、鄂西北）、渝东南、贵州（六盘水、遵义、黔东北等）等地烟草行业综合体建设进行调查,对城乡融合发展中的产业融合进行综合考察和研究。研究认为,中国的乡村振兴从“战略”提升为“道路”,表明中国式“两条腿走路”的三农现代化道路认知正式成形,乡村振兴道路在本质上讲是“农村就地现代化道路”,以农业为基础的农村就地现代化道路的关键是农村产业的融合发展;走乡村振兴道路,必须坚持政府是“主导”、乡村是“主场”、就地现代化是“主道”、产业融合发展是“主业”、内生发展是“主流”、三农工作队伍是“主体”、城乡等值发展是“主向”,再从土地流转关系、政策法规、主导产业培育、共享经济平台建设等方面,培育和推进乡村振兴中的产业融合工程。     

Bayesian t-tests for correlations and partial correlations

In this paper, we develop Bayes factor based testing procedures for the presence of a correlation or a partial correlation. The proposed Bayesian tests are obtained by restricting the class of the alternative hypotheses to maximize the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when the Bayes factor is larger than a specified threshold. It turns out that they depend simply on the frequentist t-statistics with the associated critical values and can thus be easily calculated by using a spreadsheet in Excel and in fact by just adding one more step after one has performed the frequentist correlation tests. In addition, they are able to yield an identical decision with the frequentist paradigm, provided that the evidence threshold of the Bayesian tests is determined by the significance level of the frequentist paradigm. We illustrate the performance of the proposed procedures through simulated and real-data examples.     

社会认知信息加工模型在儿童攻击性行为研究中的应用

社会认知信息加工模型是分析和解释儿童攻击性行为产生原因的一种有效理论模型。通过这一模型,可以清晰地分析儿童在社会情境中处理问题时所采用的信息加工步骤,并从中发现攻击性儿童与非攻击性儿童在这些步骤中存在的差异。而生理因素、情感因素、生活环境因素、同伴关系和性别差异等,都是儿童社会认知信息加工过程的重要影响因素。本文试就儿童攻击性行为的社会认知信息加工过程、特征,以及儿童社会信息加工过程的诸种影响因素,作一较为详细的论述。     

清季首任专差驻意大利公使许珏评介

近代意大利的国情与中国有不少相似之处.作为首任驻意大利公使,许珏表现出了"向西方寻找真理"的态度,他主持翻译了大量有关意大利资本主义社会经济发展状况的资料,不但为清政府的经济改革提供了借鉴,而且为意大利文化在中国的传播发挥了积极的作用.由于受其出使经历的影响,许珏保守的思想开始发生了某些变化,这种变化也反映了中国传统知识分子对外部世界认识的发展过程.     

帮闲寄主西门庆形象试论

《金瓶梅》中有关西门庆与帮闲交往的描写占据了相当篇幅,以其步入官场为界,双方的交往可分为前后两个阶段,尤其是他后期的养闲之举颇为引人瞩目。西门庆养闲既包含着小人得志、自我炫耀的因素,也有物色人选帮忙应付日常事务的考量,还体现了在其融入官僚阶层的艰难进程中,缓释自身心理压力的诉求。通过对双方关系的考察及西门庆养闲内在原因的深入探究,有助于我们更为全面、客观地把握西门庆这一复杂的人物形象。     

论《三国演义》与《平家物语》中武人群像的民族特征

《三国演义》与《平家物语》在中日两国文学史中都占有举足轻重的地位,都成功塑造了一批栩栩如生的武人形象。这些形象虽各有一番情貌,却都是以厚重的民族文化、民族性格为底蕴。通过考察两书武人群像所体现的道德和才能标准,昭示鲜明的民族特征。     

Linear scalar-on-surface random effects regression models

Many research fields increasingly involve analyzing data of a complex structure. Models investigating the dependence of a response on a predictor have moved beyond the ordinary scalar-on-vector regression. We propose a regression model for a scalar response and a surface (or a bivariate function) predictor. The predictor has a random component and the regression model falls in the framework of linear random effects models. We estimate the model parameters via maximizing the log-likelihood with the ECME (Expectation/Conditional Maximization Either) algorithm. We use the approach to analyze a data set where the response is the neuroticism score and the predictor is the resting-state brain function image. In the simulations we tried, the approach has better performance than two other approaches, a functional principal component regression approach and a smooth scalar-on-image regression approach.     

Inferences for a Partially Varying Coefficient Model With Endogenous Regressors

In this article, we propose a new class of semiparametric instrumental variable models with partially varying coefficients, in which the structural function has a partially linear form and the impact of endogenous structural variables can vary over different levels of some exogenous variables. We propose a three-step estimation procedure to estimate both functional and constant coefficients. The consistency and asymptotic normality of these proposed estimators are established. Moreover, a generalized F-test is developed to test whether the functional coefficients are of particular parametric forms with some underlying economic intuitions, and furthermore, the limiting distribution of the proposed generalized F-test statistic under the null hypothesis is established. Finally, we illustrate the finite sample performance of our approach with simulations and two real data examples in economics.     

中国绘画中的"兴"

“兴”是中国美学中的一个重要范畴,也是中国绘画创作中必须经历的心理过程。这一过程可分为“起兴”、“神思”、“灵感”三阶段。而“养兴”则是绘画前必不可少的准备工作。     

面向全球价值网络的中国先进制造模式动态演进与实证研究

本文研究表明,面向全球价值网络的中国先进制造模式是我国先进制造企业适应全球化竞争的必然选择。全球价值网络的构建是通过产品开发为龙头、集成产品开发的流程体系、价值链的模块化、全球价值网络四个阶段,即由“点”、“线”、“面”、“网”的不断动态演进而形成的;由此,需要从先进制造技术、多渠道开展研发与创新、动态联盟以及企业自身和政府的共同作用几方面来不断完善企业的全球价值网络,增强企业在全球市场的竞争能力。