奴役还是监禁：监狱矫正功能质疑——兼论刑罚的执行

随着刑罚观的改变,作为刑罚执行重要场域的监狱,其功能也在逐步转变,矫正成为现代监狱的核心功能。然而,矫正功能具有正反两方面的内容,必须加以区分。体制化后的监狱并不能真正有效的发挥矫正功能。文章从美国电影《肖申克的救赎》所反映的问题出发,分析了矫正功能的发挥必须具备的前提条件,以及应当注意的问题。同时,对我国监狱改革进行了反思。     

Bayesian analysis of a marked point process: Application in seismic hazard assessment

Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data, complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems.     

Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling

In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.     

Unresolved Conflicts in the Regional Security System: The Case of the South Caucasus

The collapse of the USSR was accompanied by transformation of the South Caucasian latent ethnopolitical conflicts into local wars. Today the situation in the area of the conflicts is “neither war, nor peace”. Three unresolved conflicts of the South Caucasus can be considered as one of the most serious obstacles for establishing a regional security system.The article gives the general characteristics of these conflicts, the trends of their development, taking into account the time factor, and analyzes the behavioral models of the main players – de jure recognized and unrecognized de facto states of the South Caucasus. The basic objective of the main players should be to keep the situation on a level preventing the resumption of the armed conflicts. The attempts of forced resolution of the conflicts are fraught with destabilization of the situation not only in the area of any of these conflicts but in the whole region.     

听力教学中背景知识激发浅议

听力水平的提高是英语学习者多种技能的综合反映,也是教师多种教学策略恰当运用的结果。背景知识的激发对学习者听力的理解起着举足轻重的作用。创设“逼真”和“真实”的情境,着重呈现长期记忆与短期记忆材料,丰富“暖身活动”内涵是实现听力教学中背景知识激发的有效途径和方法。     

Generalized quasi-likelihood

The quasi-score function, as defined by Wedderburn (1974) and McCullagh (1983) and so on, is a linear function of observations. The generalized quasi-score function introduced in this paper is a linear function of some unbiased basis functions, where the unbiased basis functions may be some linear functions of the observations or not, and can be easily constructed by the meaning of the parameters such as mean and median and so on. The generalized quasi-likelihood estimate obtained by such a generalized quasi-score function is consistent and has an asymptotically normal distribution. As a result, the optimum generalized quasi-score is obtained and a method to construct the optimum unbiased basis function is introduced. In order to construct the potential function, a conservative generalized estimating function is defined. By conservative, a potential function for the projected score has many properties of a log-likelihood function. Finally, some examples are given to illustrate the theoretical results. This paper is supported by NNSF project (10371059) of China and Youth Teacher Foundation of Nankai University.     

Ideas versus ideology: The origins of modern labor economics

Starting with its early twentieth century origins, the development of Labor Economics is traced to the present. We describe an intellectual revolution in which an earlier tra-dition that focused primarily on the institution of the labor union has been replaced by a perspective that emphasizes the various roles played by labor markets in an eco-nomic system. That earlier tradition contained very significant ideological elements, whereas its successor deals much more with the world of ideas. In the course of the debate, which still continues, ideas triumphed over ideology and created modern Labor Economics.