迷思与反思:计算广告学的演进逻辑与现实判断

计算广告在中国的发展路径一直秉承着技术逻辑与市场逻辑的双重推动,相对传统广告,它正经历模型的三维到一维、目的的品牌到直接市场、生态的直线到多方平台等全方位颠覆。然而,计算广告学的研究却相对滞后。数据、决策和创意是计算广告实现的思维力、统筹力和创新力,也是计算广告学构建的三种知识能力。计算广告学的外部知识供给已成熟,内部知识孵化渐成体系,回应了其学科属性。作为一门新的学科,计算广告学在现实发展中面临着技术迷思带来的工具理性放大而导致价值理性缺失等问题,需要承担其经济属性与意识形态性双重责任。同时,基于对计算广告学的反思,分析了其学科定位、人才培养的框架设置及未来发展的整合模型,以期推动计算广告学研究的良性有序发展。     

协商民主与政治发展

本文对比了中西语境中协商民主出现的理论动力和历史条件,来说明协商在不同制度中可能承担的不同功能.不同于西方背景下为了弥补聚合式民主存在的问题而产生的纠偏机制,协商在中国的出现是为了回应政治发展在不同阶段的功能性需求.自全球范围内的殖民统治时期开始,到中国获得独立并过渡为现代国家,协商在制度安排和政治话语中的内涵不断发生着变化,并呈现为谈判、咨询、治理机制三种样态.它与民主之间的联系,也并非一开始就存在,而是在发展过程中被逐渐建立起来的.     

Regression analysis of case-cohort studies in the presence of dependent interval censoring

The case-cohort design is widely used as a means of reducing the cost in large cohort studies, especially when the disease rate is low and covariate measurements may be expensive, and has been discussed by many authors. In this paper, we discuss regression analysis of case-cohort studies that produce interval-censored failure time with dependent censoring, a situation for which there does not seem to exist an established approach. For inference, a sieve inverse probability weighting estimation procedure is developed with the use of Bernstein polynomials to approximate the unknown baseline cumulative hazard functions. The proposed estimators are shown to be consistent and the asymptotic normality of the resulting regression parameter estimators is established. A simulation study is conducted to assess the finite sample properties of the proposed approach and indicates that it works well in practical situations. The proposed method is applied to an HIV/AIDS case-cohort study that motivated this investigation.     

跨国熟人关系与越南边民入境消费习性研究——兼论跨国民族志方法的理念创新

边境地区是中国与沿线和周边国家“互联互通”的关键节点和重要枢纽,在长期的历史交往与演进中所形成的跨国民族性质乃是其基本人文特征。因此,着眼于双边民族的互动交往交流,推进边境区域、跨国民族等研究融入世界民族视野,以满足新时代要求,是民族学人类学面对的主要议题。基于现实考量、学术反思与田野分析,认为在中越边境地区,越南边民的生活、节俗等入境消费习性与跨国熟人关系有着密切的正相关性,其实质是“一带一路”倡议真正惠及沿线国家和地区民众的反映,是国家之间睦邻友好、跨国民族和谐互动的基本表现。在新时代,应不断从理念上创新民族志研究方法,以期在推动民族学人类学发展的同时,为人类发展贡献出真正的学科智慧。     

On the Emotional Context Theory of the Mass Art Transmission

Concern of emotion and emotional motivation are the basis of language and literature context, and it is also the basis for the social domain of discourse related to the human culture. The traditional Chinese literature and the modern literature are both the carrier and manifestation of the mass emotional context. Besides, emotional context is also the one and only culture route and popularization route of the national revival. Emotional context shoulders the responsibility of literature and the value of critical comments.     

致密碳酸盐岩气藏转向酸酸压技术研究

在分析大牛地气田低渗致密碳酸盐岩储层地质特征的基础上，针对储层改造现状和改造难点提出了转向酸酸压技术。从理论和实验两方面分析了转向酸体系的转向机理，通过流变性能、酸岩反应动力学、转向性能及破胶性能实验分析了转向酸体系的综合性能，最后在A 井试验应用了转向酸酸压工艺，取得了大牛地气田碳酸盐岩储层勘探开发的突破。     

Efficient Inference for Longitudinal Data Varying‐coefficient Regression Models

Informative identification of the within‐subject correlation is essential in longitudinal studies in order to forecast the trajectory of each subject and improve the validity of inferences. In this paper, we fit this correlation structure by employing a time adaptive autoregressive error process. Such a process can automatically accommodate irregular and possibly subject‐specific observations. Based on the fitted correlation structure, we propose an efficient two‐stage estimator of the unknown coefficient functions by using a local polynomial approximation. This procedure does not involve within‐subject covariance matrices and hence circumvents the instability of calculating their inverses. The asymptotic normality of resulting estimators is established. Numerical experiments were conducted to check the finite sample performance of our method and an example of an application involving a set of medical data is also illustrated.     

20世纪初东北叙事文学话语的现代形态和意义

20世纪初的东北文学叙事话语的现代性,体现在对近现代国家的体认、对现代社会的认知,以及对现代文学的趋赴。在文学中体现出的国家观念,仍旧徘徊于旧的封贡体系中,近现代民族国家意识缺位,滞后于国际政治体系的变化。这使得其时的东北叙事文学中出现了两类独具时代特色的内容,一是外国政史小说的书写,一是"外国"世情小说创作。在其时的文学镜像中,城市文明呈现的是一种失衡、倾斜的形象,在从旧文化向新文化攀升的艰难行程中,来自旧时代的写手似乎更多地关注和记录了它转型中丑陋的足迹。在文学性方面,则表现出对现代文学的趋赴,内容上从教谕文学、游戏文学转向对人生的写实,篇章结构从说话体、笔记体的框制中挣脱出来,书写日常生活、人物和风景,逐步建设以呈现人生为追求的现代文学。     

A moment-based empirical likelihood ratio test for exponentiality using the probability integral transformation

ABSTRACT

A simple and efficient goodness-of-fit test for exponentiality is developed by exploiting the characterization of the exponential distribution using the probability integral transformation. We adopted the empirical likelihood methodology in constructing the test statistic. The proposed test statistic has a chi-square limiting distribution. For small to moderate sample sizes Monte-Carlo simulations revealed that our proposed tests are much more superior under increasing failure rate (IFR) and bathtub decreasing-increasing failure rate (BFR) alternatives. Real data examples were used to demonstrate the robustness and applicability of our proposed tests in practice.