Modeling the Adenoma and Serrated Pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA)

Several colorectal cancer (CRC) screening models have been developed describing the progression of adenomas to CRC. Currently, there is increasing evidence that serrated lesions can also develop into CRC. It is not clear whether screening tests have the same test characteristics for serrated lesions as for adenomas, but lower sensitivities have been suggested. Models that ignore this type of colorectal lesions may provide overly optimistic predictions of the screen‐induced reduction in CRC incidence. To address this issue, we have developed the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA) model that includes the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and the serrated pathway to CRC as well as characteristics of colorectal lesions. The model structure and the calibration procedure are described in detail. Calibration resulted in 19 parameter sets for the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and 13 for the serrated pathway that match the age‐ and sex‐specific adenoma and serrated lesion prevalence in the COlonoscopy versus COlonography Screening (COCOS) trial, Dutch CRC incidence and mortality rates, and a number of other intermediate outcomes concerning characteristics of colorectal lesions. As an example, we simulated outcomes for a biennial fecal immunochemical test screening program and a hypothetical one‐time colonoscopy screening program. Inclusion of the serrated pathway influenced the predicted effectiveness of screening when serrated lesions are associated with lower screening test sensitivity or when they are not removed. To our knowledge, this is the first model that explicitly includes the serrated pathway and characteristics of colorectal lesions. It is suitable for the evaluation of the (cost)effectiveness of potential screening strategies for CRC.     

英语中汉语借词研究新探

英语词汇中存在大量源自其他语言的借词,其中也包括一定数量的汉语词。对英语外来语词典的考察及问卷调查发现,一部分汉语借词具有较高的认知度,而有一些词则不为英语母语者所熟悉。虽然对于"中国英语"是否可以看作是英语的一种变体还有争议,但在世界英语的语境下,汉语借词正在为英语词汇的扩展做出新的贡献。     

四川盆地雷口坡组层序岩相古地理

针对四川盆地各矿区雷口坡组地层划分方案不统一，且受早印支运动的影响，雷口坡组顶部岩溶带地层垮塌破坏，造成地层内幕划分及岩相古地理恢复困难的难题，以层序地层学理论与方法为指导，重新厘定了盆地内雷口坡组的地层划分方案，以四级层序为作图单元进行层序岩相古地理重建。高精度的层序岩相古地理研究表明，雷口坡期四川盆地处于局限–蒸发海环境，在川西北一带靠近松潘—甘孜海槽一带发育有台地边缘，台地内部颗粒滩和台地边缘颗粒滩构成了雷口坡组的勘探主体。岩相古地理的演化表明，雷口坡组沉积时期盆地底形发生了东倾向西倾“跷跷板”式的转换，在层序I 早期仍保持了早三叠世西高东低的地形格局，至层序III 沉积期东倾趋势消失，层序IVV 沉积时期盆地内隆凹格局略具雏形。伴随着构造挤压运动的加剧，从层序VI 开始盆地底形隆凹格局分异加剧，形成巨厚膏盐盆，膏盐盆沉积中心在层序VIX 沉积时期具有明显西移的趋势。     

Dividend barrier and ruin problems for a risk model with delayed claims

In this paper, a compound Poisson risk model in the presence of a constant dividend barrier is considered. Two types of individual claims, main claims and by-claims, are defined, where every by-claim is induced by the main claim and and the time of delay for the claim is assumed to be random. A system of integro-differential equations with certain boundary conditions for the expected discounted penalty function is derived. We show that its solution can be expressed as the solution to the expected discounted penalty function in the same risk model with the absence of a barrier plus a linear combination of two linearly independent solutions to the associated homogeneous integro-differential equation. Using systems of integro-differential equations for the moment-generating function as well as for the arbitrary moments of the sum of discounted dividend payments until ruin, a matrix version of the dividends–penalty type relationship is derived. We also prove that ruin is certain under constant dividend barrier strategy. The closed form expressions are given when the claim amounts from both classes are exponentially distributed. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the solution procedure.     

基于最近邻分析的空气质量时空数据异常点识别

空气质量数据具有在时间上连续、空间上相关的特点,这提高了异常点识别的难度.本文提出在时间维度上运用移动平均法,在空间维度上运用反距离加权法对观测值进行预测并求残差的解决思路,从而将时空数据的异常点识别问题转化为二维残差值的异常点检测问题.通过仿真验证表明新方法具有良好的检出力.最后将新方法应用于北京市实际观测数据,取得了满意的识别效果.     

“空间转向”之后“怎么办”

“空间转向”之后的空间叙事学成为了炙手可热的“显学”.但是,当前的空间叙事研究到了一个瓶颈阶段,原因多种.“空间转向”的这股后现代思潮有着不可推卸的责任.“空间转向”的叙事推力功不可没,但后现代历史碎片化、随意切割时间历史的粗暴式学术批评也是不足取的.所以,首先,必须纠正“空间转向”等同于空间叙事研究的偏向.其次,必须区分出“形式化空间叙事”和“内容性空间叙事”,并且分别加以历史化——“空间再转向”,以结束当前空间叙事研究的破碎化、非历史化倾向.     

徽州文书与清水江文书保护模式比较研究

随着清水江文书的收集、整理和出版,越来越多的文书受到各级政府部门、学术界的重视。如何有效保护、高效利用文书成为一大问题。同时,传统的文书征集方法遭遇到了越来越多的困难和问题,因此,探索建立有别于其他文书保护模式的清水江模式具有重要的现实意义。     

全球化环境中的城市营销:行为空间变化与战略转型

在全球化与分权化浪潮的共同影响下,城市营销表现出强烈的增长倾向,驱使城市之间展开以追逐资本为主要内容的竞争博弈.在我国经济转型时期,地方政府替代市场的行为助长了城市营销利益短视的经营动机.致使城市发展受到恶性竞争的困扰,并冲击着由行政区划制度建构的城市管理体系,制约了以城市区域为依托的功能型空间组织的一体化发展诉求.鉴于此,我们要密切关注由市场主导的和受到外部环境影响的城市行为空间变化,认清城市营销战略转型的价值基础,积极探索其组织管理制度的创新模式.     

论新时期以来中国基督教文学的自然书写

在20世纪的世界文坛里,伴随着都市文明缺点的日益显豁,自然与人性受到严重异化,人的完整性被无情割裂,回归自然乐园与回归本真人性已然成为一种不可阻挡的潮流.新时期以来的中国基督教文学试图通过对自然的神性解释,从神意之美中寻觅终极的源泉,架起了重返自然乐园和复归本真人性的诗意桥梁.这种神性书写暗合了世界艺术潮流的脉动,提供了某种具有未来意义的现代化文化因子.     

西夏开国人口考论

本文在认真研读相关文献的基础上 ,对西夏开国人口作了较为深入细致的考察和论述 ,认为由于史料采信等原因 ,以往研究与历史事实多有出入 ,存在不少问题。文章进而指出 ,特定的历史与地理条件决定了西夏自建国伊始即是一个“土地有限 ,人民有数”的地方性民族割据政权 ,其开国兵力不过 30余万 ,人口总数则仅及百万