Regulatory Models and the Environment: Practice, Pitfalls, and Prospects

Computational models support environmental regulatory activities by providing the regulator an ability to evaluate available knowledge, assess alternative regulations, and provide a framework to assess compliance. But all models face inherent uncertainties because human and natural systems are always more complex and heterogeneous than can be captured in a model. Here, we provide a summary discussion of the activities, findings, and recommendations of the National Research Council's Committee on Regulatory Environmental Models, a committee funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to provide guidance on the use of computational models in the regulatory process. Modeling is a difficult enterprise even outside the potentially adversarial regulatory environment. The demands grow when the regulatory requirements for accountability, transparency, public accessibility, and technical rigor are added to the challenges. Moreover, models cannot be validated (declared true) but instead should be evaluated with regard to their suitability as tools to address a specific question. The committee concluded that these characteristics make evaluation of a regulatory model more complex than simply comparing measurement data with model results. The evaluation also must balance the need for a model to be accurate with the need for a model to be reproducible, transparent, and useful for the regulatory decision at hand. Meeting these needs requires model evaluation to be applied over the "life cycle" of a regulatory model with an approach that includes different forms of peer review, uncertainty analysis, and extrapolation methods than those for nonregulatory models.     

Adolescent Outcome Measures in the NLSY97 Family Process Data Set: Variation by Race and Socioeconomic Conditions

This study uses nationally representative data from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth 1997 to analyze adolescent outcome indexes (delinquency, substance use, and emotional and behavior problems) by gender, race, household income, and family structure. Results from analysis of variance show that family structure is correlated with better adolescent outcomes, even after controlling for gender, race, and household income. For example, adolescents from two-parent biological homes consistently reported significantly less delinquency and use of illegal substances such as alcohol, tobacco, or marijuana than adolescents from single-mother or stepfamily households. All adolescents and their parents in two-parent biological families reported significantly lower incidences of behavioral and emotional problems than adolescents and their parents in single-mother or stepfamilies. Other findings with respect to gender, race, and income, as well as some interaction effects, were also indicated by the analysis.     

An empirical analysis of the use of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index in assessing the distribution of electronic gaming machines and its socio-economic implications

Sargent and Holmes (2014) proposed the use of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index in assessing the effects of the distribution of electronic gaming machines (EGMs) on expenditure and tax outcomes for local areas. This paper reports empirical analysis on the use of the Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI) in this application. Comparative testing of HHI and population-based measures, such as EGM density, was conducted using EGM data from the New South Wales State Government (Australia) for the period 1995 to 2005. The analysis also compares the use of the commonly used Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage, with the Index of Education and Occupation. The socio-economic elements comprising the latter index are acknowledged as being relevant to the assessment of gambling impacts. The results indicate that the use of a concentration measure such as the HHI may augment the use of existing measures in policy development and localized decision-making on distribution of gambling facilities.     

Monetary policy and its transmission mechanisms in Eritrea

The main purpose of this study is to identify the best practices of monetary policy implementation in the Eritrean economy. As such, the paper examines what kind of monetary policy and transmission mechanisms are relevant to the Eritrean economy. It also addresses which channels are effective and which are not and why. Vector Autoregressive modelling is employed over the study period 1996Q1–2008Q4. This paper addresses the argument that the bank lending is the sole functioning channel in low income economies. We find that interest rate and official exchange rate channels are inoperative. However, effective exchange rate and credit channels exist through the black foreign exchange market and credit issued to the government sector. The main policy implication of this study is that the Bank of Eritrea might be able to control inflation through manipulating the reserve requirement ratio.     

The local political economy of languages in a Sámi tourism destination: Authenticity and mobility in the labelling of souvenirs1

In this article we use ethnographic and discourse analytic approaches to examine how the labelling of tourist souvenirs affects, and is in turn affected by, the local political economy of language of a tourist destination, which is also a minority language space. We begin by arguing for the importance of our particular focus of study, souvenir labels, in the process of global and local tourism, and consequently as evidence of the interplay of languages, politics and economics. We then consider the distinctive features of the local political economy of language in our particular case study, the multilingual Sámi village of Inari in Northern Finland. In a related discussion, we describe how Inari functions as a site of experiential cultural tourism, and how the purchase of souvenirs is part of the tourist experience. We then go on to describe a number of practices that we have observed in the choice and use of linguistic and visual resources for the labelling of souvenirs in Inari, the delicate balancing act that takes place in these practices between authenticity and mobility, and how this reflects and is reflected in the local political economy of language. Tutkimme tässä artikkelissa etnografiaa ja diskurssianalyysiä hyödyntäen miten matkamuistot ja niiden kuvaukset nimilapuissa rakentuvat kielten paikallisessa poliittisessa ja taloudellisessa konteksteissa samalla niitä rakentaen. Tarkasteltavana oleva turistikohde on alkuperäisenä saamelaiskylänä markkinoitu Inari, joka sijaitsee uhanalaisten saamenkielten kotiseutualueella Pohjois‐Suomessa. Aluksi kuvaamme matkamuistojen tarkastelun kiinnostavuutta kielten, politiikan ja talouden tutkimuksen risteymässä. Seuraavaksi tarkastelemme Inarin kieliympäristöä ja sen nivoutumista paikalliseen poliittiseen talouteen. Tämän jälkeen kuvaamme Inarissa myynnissä olevien matkamuistojen ja niiden nimilapuissa tehtyjä kielellisiä ja visuaalisia valintoja. Matkamuistojen multimodaalisen diskurssin analyysimme kuvaa, miten niihin liittyvät käytänteet tasapainottelevat autenttisuuden ja liikkuvuuden rakentamisen välillä samalla kun ne nivoutuvat paikalliseen kielten poliittiseen talouteen. [Finnish] Mii dutkat dán artihkkalis, mo mátkemuittut ja daid govvideapmi gilkoriin ?addet gielaid báikkála? politihkala? ja ekonomala? konteavsttas nu, ahte dat seammás huksejit daid. Geavahit dutkanvuohkin etnografiija ja diskursaanalysa. Geah?adit turisttaid mátkemeari Anára, mii márkanastojuvvo originála sápmela? gilá?in. Anár lea gilli áitojuvvon sámegielaid ruovttuguovllus Davvi‐Suomas. Álggos mii govvidit, man bero?tahtti mátkemuittuid geah?adeapmi lea gielaid, politihka ja ekonomiija gaskkas. ?uovvova??an mii geah?adit Anára giellabirrasa ja dan, mo dat ?atnasa báikkála? politihkala? ekonomiijai. Dán ma??á mii govvidit, makkár gielala? ja visuálala? válljemat leat dahkkon dain mátkemuittuin ja daid gilkoriin, mat leat vuovdinláhkai Anáris. Min analysa mátkemuittuid multimodálala? diskurssas govvida, mo vierut, mat laktásit mátkemuittuide, dássádallet autentala?vuo?a ja lihkadeami huksema gaskkas seammás go dat ?atnasit gielaid báikkála? politihkala? ekonomiijai. [Northern Sámi]     

The case for small area microdata

Summary.  Census data are available in aggregate form for local areas and, through the samples of anonymized records (SARs), as samples of microdata for households and individuals. In 1991 there were two SAR files: a household file and an individual file. These have a high degree of detail on the census variables but little geographical detail, a situation that will be exacerbated for the 2001 SAR owing to the loss of district level geography on the individual SAR. The paper puts forward the case for an additional sample of microdata, also drawn from the census, that has much greater geographical detail. Small area microdata (SAM) are individual level records with local area identifiers and, to maintain confidentiality, reduced detail on the census variables. Population data from seven local authorities, including rural and urban areas, are used to define prototype samples of SAM. The rationale for SAM is given, with examples that demonstrate the role of local area information in the analysis of census data. Since there is a trade-off between the extent of local detail and the extent of detail on variables that can be made available, the confidentiality risk of SAM is assessed empirically. An indicative specification of the SAM is given, having taken into account the results of the confidentiality analysis.     

Rituals of Degradation: Administration as Policy in the Ontario Works Programme

After the election of a neo‐liberal provincial government in 1995, Ontario was at the forefront of work‐based welfare reform in Canada. Many of the sweeping reforms carried out under the banner of the “Common Sense Revolution” received widespread coverage: for example, reductions in welfare rates, the introduction of the Ontario Works programme, the adoption of a zero‐tolerance policy for so‐called welfare fraud, and changes to the rules relating to common‐law spousal relationships. However, much less attention has focused upon significant changes to the ways welfare is delivered. This paper critically interrogates a number of key changes to the Service Delivery Model in Ontario. After the passage of federal legislation in 1995, national entitlements to welfare have been terminated, replaced with local responsibility; this decentralization is changing not only the hierarchy of the regulation of poor people, but also the form and function of provision. In particular, there is evidence of the reinvention of administration towards the micro‐regulation of job search and personal behaviour and the deterrence of welfare receipt as applicants and recipients are bureaucratically disentitled. Although administrative practices have historically acted as a secondary barrier to welfare receipt, the paper suggests that the current incarnation of work‐enforcing reforms could be especially significant as the worlds of welfare and work continue to change.