A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof‐of‐Concept Study

This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately.     

Properties of the weighted log‐rank test in the design of confirmatory studies with delayed effects

Proportional hazards are a common assumption when designing confirmatory clinical trials in oncology. This assumption not only affects the analysis part but also the sample size calculation. The presence of delayed effects causes a change in the hazard ratio while the trial is ongoing since at the beginning we do not observe any difference between treatment arms, and after some unknown time point, the differences between treatment arms will start to appear. Hence, the proportional hazards assumption no longer holds, and both sample size calculation and analysis methods to be used should be reconsidered. The weighted log‐rank test allows a weighting for early, middle, and late differences through the Fleming and Harrington class of weights and is proven to be more efficient when the proportional hazards assumption does not hold. The Fleming and Harrington class of weights, along with the estimated delay, can be incorporated into the sample size calculation in order to maintain the desired power once the treatment arm differences start to appear. In this article, we explore the impact of delayed effects in group sequential and adaptive group sequential designs and make an empirical evaluation in terms of power and type‐I error rate of the of the weighted log‐rank test in a simulated scenario with fixed values of the Fleming and Harrington class of weights. We also give some practical recommendations regarding which methodology should be used in the presence of delayed effects depending on certain characteristics of the trial.     

内部审计在公司治理中的作用

公司治理是伴随着现代企业而产生发展的,它通过一套制度的安排对企业的权、责、利进行约束。而内部审计正是对这套制度的再监督。本文从公司治理的角度,根据内部审计的涵义和职能,在分析内部审计与公司治理联系的基础上,论述内部审计在公司治理中的作用。同时,结合我国公司治理的现状,揭示内部审计工作存在的问题和相应的解决措施。     

局部理性市场的预期分析

在一个发育不完善、组织效率较低的商品或资本市场中,不同的市场主体拥有不同信息并产生预期模式的差异,由于交易者之间的信息屏障在短期内无法有效消除,导致预期的异质化长期存在并使市场仅具有局部理性.局部理性市场价格的稳定性取决于理性投机与非理性交易行为的力量对比,而不成熟市场经常显现的过度波动性则往往是理性投机处于弱势的表现.     

浅谈中外合作办学学校需妥善处理的三方面关系

中外合作办学是中国教育国际化战略的重大探索,也是一项教育系统工程。中外合作办学学校作为教育实施的主体,妥善处理与政府教育主管部门、学生及其家长、行业中介组织的关系,是学校健康和谐发展的关键。学校要在政府的宏观调控下承担教育主体的责任;维护受教育者权益,创建学校的教育品牌;并注意适当发挥行业中介的作用。     

On the effectiveness of cognitive feedback from an interface agent

The objective of this study was to determine the impact of task information (TI) provided by an interface agent during the idea evaluation and integration step of the problem formulation stage of the problem solving process. The effectiveness assessment was based on solving diagnostic decision problems in the domain of complex industrial machinery. Ten domain experts participated in this study. Decision support was provided by a case-based reasoning system. Findings suggest that TI provided by the interface agent had no effect on the decision maker's performance, nor on the associated cognitive effort. However, a verbal protocol analysis revealed that the ten subjects used the interface agent to verify their decision processes. The results and their implications are discussed with respect to current findings in the area of decision support systems.     

基于需要层次理论的保险代理人分类激励机制指标体系设计

针对保险代理人的具体情况和实际需求，将马斯洛的需要层次理论灵活地应用到实际当中，设计出一系列量化分类指标，运用数理统计方法，进行加权汇总后得出几个总值，对这几个总值的大小进行排序，根据排序的结果科学理性地将保险代理人分成若干类别，在对保险代理人管理过程中可以针对不同类别的代理人采取不同激励措施，进而有效而又低成本地解决保险业对代理人激励不力的问题。     

论比较诗学及其他者视域的异质文化与非我因素

在全球化时代的汉语学术界,比较诗学研究是中外文论走向汇通性研究所展开的主流方向,比较视域是比较诗学在学科研究上得以安身立命的本体,他者视域是比较视域构成的内在品质,他者视域在比较诗学研究中秉有的两种文化立场。异质文化是比较文学研究者以及国际汉学家所使用的一个专用术语,以语言与民族血亲关系的本质差异性而言,东方文化与西方文化在本质上互为异质文化,即两者互为异类,对方都是自己的非我因素。比较诗学研究者诉求跳出本土学术研究领域的单边文化主义,主张以一种异质文化与非我因素的开放眼光来从事普适性的、整体性的、国际性的中外诗学研究,从而规避本土文论研究的一元性和惟民族性。比较诗学研究中的比较视域主张中外诗学研究之间的相互看视,主张中外诗学双方之间互为他者,认同一个民族的诗学相对于另一个民族诗学来说,两者之间就像镜与灯一样,可以相互镜照与相互照亮。交集理论是比较诗学在学科理论建设上简明及有效回答视域融合及比较研究如何可能的学理观念。     

Noninformative priors for the between-group variance in the unbalanced one-way random effects model with heterogeneous error variances

For the unbalanced one-way random effects model with heterogeneous error variances, we propose the non-informative priors for the between-group variance and develop the first- and second-order matching priors. It turns out that the second-order matching priors do not exist and the reference prior and Jeffreys prior do not satisfy a first-order matching criterion. We also show that the first-order matching prior meets the frequentist target coverage probabilities much better than the Jeffreys prior and reference prior through simulation study, and the Bayesian credible intervals based on the matching prior and reference prior give shorter intervals than the existing confidence intervals by examples.     

Training needs of extension agents’ regarding organic agriculture in Saudi Arabia

The purpose of this study was to investigate the needs of extension agents for training on organic agriculture (OA) in the Riyadh Region. Fifty-five percent (n = 69) of extension agents were selected to collect data through an electronic survey. Results indicated that extension agents in the Riyadh Region cited on job training as a main source for acquiring knowledge in OA. Agents expressed interest in receiving training in OA in general, OA marketing, and transitioning to OA. The most useful resources were field days at organic farms, OA training sessions at colleges, and attending OA trial plots. There were no differences in the level of interest in training; however, there were significant differences between individuals in terms of their experience in OA, job responsibility for providing information related to OA, and area of specialization in their job. This study recommends developing professional training programs based on the current knowledge of extension agents.