“新常态”下中国化石能源生态价值与代际补偿核算

经济“新常态”对经济增速与结构优化提出了新要求,也为缓解能源压力与改善生态环境提供了契机。本文采用生态足迹模型核算了1991年至2013年中国化石能源生态价值补偿,结合“新常态”经济特征,预测化石能源生态足迹的变化轨迹并对代际间化石能源生态价值补偿进行责任划分。结果显示在放缓经济增速和约束能源下,中国化石能源生态价值补偿存在增速降低甚至总额下行的可能,在2032年左右能够达到峰值,与中国承诺二氧化碳峰值的时间接近。靠前代际负更多责任的分配方式更符合公平与效率的要求,不仅可以减轻后代人的补偿压力,同时也可以兼顾到当代人的经济发展与能源技术进步。     

“贷款修路，收费还贷”政策思考

通过对中西部地区与东部地区收费公路盈亏情况进行对比,从“贷款修路,收费还贷”政策调整角度寻求提高收费公路行业整体经济绩效的途径。分析认为,“贷款修路,收费还贷”政策虽然在一定时期内对行业发展提供了助力,但是也造成了部分地区公路项目过度超前规划、统贷统还政策适得其反、行业债务风险较大3个方面的问题;中西部地区应在公益性项目与市场化项目细分的基础上改进统贷统还政策,提高公益性公路项目;东部地区应完善政府与社会资本合作体系,用交叉补助形式缓减中西部地区公路建设资金压力。     

社会共生研究的当代性

针对社会共生研究与中国社会主义建设的关系问题,利用文献分析法,对“共”“和”等中华传统文化中具有共生思想的文化因子进行解析。研究认为,中国共生性的“和文化”是包括个人的共生和国家的共生,人类面对的即是一个命运相连的共生社会;社会主义道路的优越性体现在社会主义制度提供的不断优化共生关系的空间,这是中国“两个一百年”奋斗目标的实现和处理国际关系中需要遵循的基本理念。     

An Approximation Model of the Collective Risk Model with INAR(1) Claim Process

Cossette et al. (2010 Cossette, H., Marceau, E., Maume-Deschamps, V. (2010). Discerte-time risk models based on time series for count random variables. ASTIN Bull. 40:123–150.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2011 Cossette, H., Marceau, E., Toureille, F. (2011). risk models based on time series for count random variables. Insur. Math. Econ. 48:19–28.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) gave a novel collective risk model where the total numbers of claims satisfy the first-order integer-valued autoregressive process. For a risk model, it is interesting to investigate the upper bound of ruin probability. However, the loss increments of the above model are dependent; it is difficult to derive the upper bound of ruin probability. In this article, we propose an approximation model with stationary independent increments. The upper bound of ruin probability and the adjustment coefficient are derived. The approximation model is illustrated via four simulated examples. Results show that the gap of the approximation model and dependent model can be ignored by adjusting values of parameters.     

Control of type 1 error in a hybrid complete two‐period vaccine efficacy trial

A complete two‐period experimental design has been defined as one in which subjects are randomized to treatment, observed for the occurrence of an event of interest, re‐randomized, and observed again for the event in a second period. A 4‐year vaccine efficacy trial was planned to compare a high‐dose vaccine with a standard dose vaccine. Subjects would be randomized each year, and subjects who had participated in a previous year would be allowed to re‐enroll in a subsequent year and would be re‐randomized. A question of interest is whether positive correlation between observations on subjects who re‐enrolled would inflate the variance of test statistics. The effect of re‐enrollment and correlation on type 1 error in a 4‐year trial is investigated by simulation. As conducted, the trial met its power requirements after two years. Subjects therefore included some who participated for a single year and others who participated in both years. Those who participated in both years constituted a complete two‐period design. An algebraic expression for the variance of the treatment difference in a complete two‐period design is derived. It is shown that under a ‘no difference’ null, correlation does not result in variance inflation in this design. When there is a treatment difference, there is variance inflation but it is small. In the vaccine efficacy trial, the effect of correlation on the statistical inference was negligible. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

唐代贫女难嫁现象探析

中唐以后贫女诗的大量出现,反映了贫女难嫁在当时已经是一个非常突出的社会现象。而导致这一问题的原因一是受北朝以来财婚习俗的影响,二是科举制的推行造成女性地位的相对降低,而最根本的原因则是“女多男少”的人口性别比失调所致。     

秦王朝国庆（“十月朔”）与新年的合一

秦统一中国后,规定“朝贺皆自十月朔”.因为秦以建亥之月为岁首,采用《颛顼历》,所以就把夏历十月一日作为一年的开始,十月朔也就成了全民欢庆朝贺的法定节日.但随着历史上多次改历与置闰,秦原来形成的节庆活动也深深地融化在中国人的文化现象中了.     

公共服务供给模式的多元化

以创新社会管理思想为指引,以政府部门购买公共服务为范例,以“石拱桥原理”作为分析工具,揭示公共服务提供模式创新的现实路径:人民群众监督政府,促使政府购买服务并监管社会力量,向人民群众提供优质服务,否则将承担相应的责任,以期从根本上提升当前公共服务供给绩效。     

理想化与存在性的交织:“禅让制”刍议

强调“禅而不传”的“禅让制”,在历史上本来就是一个众说纷纭的重大话题。随着２０世纪９０年代上博简、郭店简陆续面世以来,遂又重新掀起了对这一话题的讨论。在对禅让传说与禅让学说进行疏解的基础上,通过对相关考古成果与研究成果的考察,认为“禅让制”在历史上存在的时间当为新石器时代初中期的可能性比较大一些,而理想化与存在性的交织则是“禅让制”在历史长河中存在的真实状态。     

新型社会救助制度:成就、问题与发展方向

１９７８年以来,中国初步建立了以最低生活保障制度、医疗救助制度、五保供养制度为主要内容的新型社会救助制度体系,社会救助覆盖面不断扩大、救助力度不断增强、法律建设取得了较快发展。然而,中国新型社会救助还存在救助理念滞后、二元分割现象明显、责任分担机制不合理、待遇调整机制不科学、对象瞄准机制不健全等问题。研究认为:新型社会救助制度的发展方向是确立积极的社会救助理念、统筹城乡社会救助发展、完善瞄准机制、建立合理的待遇调整机制。