Credit access,macroprudential rules and policy interventions: Lessons for potential first time buyers

Given the increased popularity of macroprudential measures in the aftermath of the great financial crisis (GFC), a key policy question to arise in certain mortgage markets is whether a significant access to credit issue exists amongst prospective homeowners because of these new policies. In this paper we assess whether such a problem arises in the context of the Irish mortgage market – a market particularly adversely impacted by the GFC. We use a microsimulation model to estimate the level of latent credit demand that could be serviced by the market given prudent credit risk assessment and the current macroprudential regulations. We then compare this demand to current market provision to explore whether a credit gap exists. Finally, we simulate how a public mortgage credit scheme or equity “help-to-buy” type instrument may help credit access. We find both instruments to be effective but would lead to somewhat higher house prices.     

Process and Results of an Immunization Requirement at the University of Rochester

Abstract

“A Double-Blind Study of Oral Acyclovir for Suppression of Recurrences of Genital Herpes Simplex Virus Infection,” JOHN M. DOUGLAS, et al. Patients with frequently recurring genital herpes were enrolled in a double-blind placebo-controlled trial comparing 200-mg acyclovir capsules, given five or two times daily, with placebo. Of 47 placebo recipients, 44 (94 per cent) had recurrences during the 120-day treatment period, compared with 13 (29 per cent) of 45 patients treated with acyclovir five times daily and 18 of 51 (35 per cent) treated with acyclovir twice daily (P < 0.001 for each regimen compared with placebo). The median time to the first clincial recurrence was 18 days in placebo recipients, compared with over 120 days in both acyclovir-treated groups (P < 0.001 for both groups compared with placebo). The mean monthly recurrence rate during the medication period was 0.86 in placebo recipients, compared with 0.13 in patients treated with acyclovir five times daily and 0.14 in patients treated with acyclovir twice daily (P < 0.001 for both groups compared with placebo). While receiving therapy, 86 of 96 acyclovir-treated patients had over a 50 per cent reduction in their pretreatment recurrence rate. Breakthrough recurrences in acyclovir recipients were of shorter duration and associated with a lower frequency of viral shedding than recurrences in placebo recipients. After medication was discontinued, the subsequent recurrence rate returned to pretreatment frequencies. Daily oral acyclovir was well tolerated. We conclude that oral acyclovir given for four months markedly reduces but does not completely prevent recurrences of genital herpes and does not influence the long-term natural history of the disease. (New England Journal of Medicine 1984 July;310:1551–6.)     

Birth order effects on young students’ academic achievement

We examine birth order effects on academic achievement for ten-year-old students using data for the entire population of fifth graders in Norway 2007/2008. The analysis thus adds to a thin empirical literature focusing on birth order effects among young children. We find that being firstborn confers a significant advantage in families with two, three and four children. The analysis makes two other contributions. First, we provide evidence that unless mother's age at childbirth is included among the control variables, only small and imprecise birth order effects are revealed in families with low socioeconomic status. Second, we provide some evidence that the birth order effects differ across families with highly educated and less educated mothers, which lend support to the resource dilution model over the confluence model.     

Serials Clutter in Online Catalogs

Abstract

Finding and deciphering serials records in online catalogs is a challenge to many library users. To understand and analyze these challenges, the author conducted searches for scientific journal titles in the online catalogs of Committee on Institutional Cooperation (CIC) libraries. The first part of the study measures the difficulty of retrieving serial records from online catalogs comparing one-word versus multiple-word titles. The second part analyzes displays for complexity by measuring the length of the complete record and the length of the holdings statements. These data show the complexity of displays and indicate the potential confusion that these displays may induce in library users.     

查韦斯“21世纪社会主义”之内涵

自从查韦斯上台执政以来,便高调宣称要在委内瑞拉甚至拉羡大陆建立“21世纪社会主义”。他利用各种机会,不厌其烦地宣传“21世纪社会主义”的理论和理想,并且坚称“21世纪社会主义”是“真正的社会主义”,是一种不同于“传统社会主义”的社会主义。但是,透过他所采取的各项具体政策,我们可以看到其“21世纪社会主义”不同程度地带有历史上曾经出现过的各种社会主义的影子,是多种社会主义的集合体。仔细分析起来大概有：民主社会主义、民族社会主义、科学社会主义、合作社会主义、自治社会主义以及农民社会主义等。     

关于21世纪的生命科学

生命科学和技术已成为全球政治家、经济学家和科学家十分关注的一个科技领域。作者从生命科学的角度 ,分析了在新世纪中人类所面临的问题 ,生命科学的前沿 ,及其对人类未来经济社会发展的影响。希望能使读者了解 2 1世纪的生命科学的特点 ,关注与生命科学密切有关的农业、医学、环境以及与人的生活的方方面面密切有关的多种生物学问题     

Arbeitsmarktforschung und Arbeitsmarktstatistik aus der Sicht der wirtschaftspolitischen Beratung: Erfahrungen und Perspektiven

Zusammenfassung: Dieser Beitrag beleuchtet aus der Sicht der wirtschaftspolitischen Beratung einige Anforderungen an die Arbeitsmarkt?konomik und Arbeitsmarktstatistik. Drei Bereiche werden angesprochen: die Arbeitslosenstatistik, die Tariflohnpolitik und die aktive Arbeitsmarktpolitik. Dabei werden zun?chst die Bemühungen hinsichtlich einer realistischeren Erfassung der Unterbesch?ftigung gewürdigt, zugleich aber Hinweise auf Verbesserungsm?glichkeiten gegeben. Anforderungen an die amtliche Statistik ergeben sich des Weiteren hinsichtlich der Tarifentgelte. In diesem Zusammenhang wird die Umsetzung der Erkenntnisse der Arbeitsmarkt?konomik in eine lohnpolitische Orientierungshilfe skizziert. Schlie?lich erfolgt eine kritische Einsch?tzung des Erfolgs der aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik, wobei eine zunehmende Willigkeit zur Bereitstellung der für die Evaluation erforderlichen Daten konstatiert werden kann.

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Summary: This paper deals with three demands on labor economics and labor statistics put forward from the point of view of an advisor to economic policy. Despite several improvements of unemployment statistics, a lot of work remains to be done. With respect to wage policy attempts by the German Council of Economic Experts are discussed how to formulate a guidance for wage policy both on scientific grounds and understandable by the public. Finally, a critical assessment of active labor market policies is presented together with a plea for adequate individual data in order to carry out a sound evaluation of these policies.

* Vortrag für die „Statistische Woche“, die Jahrestagung der Deutschen Statistischen Gesellschaft am 20. September 2004 in Frankfurt/Main. Der Vortragsstil wurde beibehalten. Die hier vorgetragenen Auffassungen liegen allein in der Verantwortung des Autors und stellen nicht notwendigerweise die Auffassungen anderer Institutionen dar. Ich danke Bernd Fitzenberger (Universit?t Frankfurt/Main und ZEW), Joachim M?ller (Universit?t Regensburg), Bernhard Boockmann und Tobias Hagen (ZEW), Irmtraud Beuerlein und Dirk Heinlein (Statistisches Bundesamt) für hilfreiche Kommentare und Anregungen. Verbleibende M?ngel gehen212;leider212;zu meinen Lasten.     

Measures of individual risk attitudes and portfolio choice: Evidence from pension participants

We use a large non-student sample to test how distinct measures of risk-attitudes relate to each other, to demographic characteristics and to real-life risk taking in the financial domain. These measures, namely the Bomb Risk Elicitation Task (BRET), self-reported willingness to take risks in general, the choice in a hypothetical lottery, the score in the Domain Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT) scale, appear to be positively correlated and exhibit a certain degree of consistency. Furthermore, a subset of these measures is driven by similar demographic characteristics as such that males are more risk seeking and risk-aversion increases with age. Using extensive data on the retirement portfolios of the participants during the years 2008–2014, we find that all of these measures are positively correlated with the riskiness of individual portfolios. The self-reported willingness to take risks in general appears to be the most relevant measure in predicting actual risk-taking behavior.