鲁迅与中国近代启蒙思潮的嬗变

鲁迅早年的立人思想从属于20世纪初的改造国民性思潮。他在五四时期结束沉默,加入新文化人的启蒙呐喊,不是对早年立人思想的回复,而是对新的启蒙课题的重新认同,是他早期思想发展的一个飞跃。鲁迅从早年的立人思想到五四时期对思想启蒙的重新认同,鲜明地体现了中国近代启蒙思潮从20世纪初的改造国民性思潮到五四思想启蒙的嬗变。这种嬗变主要表现在:启蒙的根本目标由民族自救转变为民主追求,启蒙的中心任务由改造国民性转变为道德革新,启蒙的基本手段由引进西学转变为反传统。     

Duration analysis in longitudinal studies with intermittent observation times and losses to followup

We consider the analysis of spell durations observed in event history studies where members of the study panel are seen intermittently. Challenges for analysis arise because losses to followup are frequently related to previous event history, and spells typically overlap more than one observation period. We provide methods of estimation based on inverse probability of censoring weighting for parametric and semiparametric Cox regression models. Selection of panel members through a complex survey design is also addressed, and the methods are illustrated in an analysis of jobless spell durations based on data from the Statistics Canada Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 1–21; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

A stochastic graph process for epidemic modelling

A stochastic graph process with a Markov property is introduced to model the flow of an infectious disease over a known contact network. The model provides a probability distribution over unobserved infectious pathways. The basic reproductive number in compartmental models is generalized to a dynamic reproductive number based on the sequence of outdegrees in the graph process. The cumulative resistance and threat associated with each individual is also measured based on the cumulative indegree and outdegree of the graph process. The model is applied to the outbreak data from the 2001 foot‐and‐mouth (FMD) outbreak in the United Kingdom. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 55–67; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

A functional marked point process model for lupus data

Modelling for marked point processes is an important problem, but has received remarkably little attention in the statistical literature. The authors developed a marked point process model that incorporates the use of functional data analysis in a joint estimation of the frequency function of the point process and the intensity of the mark, with application to data from 22 lupus patients consisting of times of flares in symptom severity combined with a quantitative assessment of the severity. The data indicate that a rapid decrease in drug dose is significantly associated with a decrease in flare frequency. Experiments with simulated data designed to model the actual data further support this conclusion. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 517–529; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

A menu on output gap estimation methods

This paper presents a review of output gap modeling techniques, which are of special interest for policy making institutions. We distinguish between univariate – which estimate trend output on the basis of actual output, without taking into account the information contained in other variables –, and multivariate methods — which incorporate useful information on some other variables, based on economic theory. We present the main advantages and drawbacks of the different methods.     

Notes on interval estimation of the proportion ratio under a three-treatment three-period crossover trial

When comparing two experimental treatments with a placebo, we focus our attention on interval estimation of the proportion ratio (PR) of patient responses under a three-period crossover design. We propose a random effects exponential multiplicative risk model and derive asymptotic interval estimators in closed form for the PR between treatments and placebo. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compare the performance of these interval estimators in a variety of situations. We use the data comparing two different doses of an analgesic with placebo for the relief of primary dysmenorrhea to illustrate the use of these interval estimators and the difference in estimates of the PR and odds ratio (OR) when the underlying relief rates are not small.     

论"第四权力"与司法权力的运行规律

"第四权力"与司法权力的运行存在从属律、阶段律、复杂律和敏感律,其中的阶段律最具统摄作用.不同的政治模式项下,两权的运行规律各不相同.发掘规律与设定规则,不能忽视或超越历史阶段,否则只能陷入盲目与混乱,对法治与宪政秩序的建构有害无益.     

大学英语四级"常模"带来的困惑

大学英语四级考试是一种尺度相关--常模参照考试.现行常模由中国六所重点大学的近万名本科生组成.作者把六校1999年四级考试结果与四、六级考试中心公布的2003年6月全国各类院校2001级考试结果进行了对比分析,指出"常模"使六大名校四级考试成绩分布合理,而使得100来所重点大学考生平均成绩不及格,占考生总数90%的非重点院校考生四级通过率仅为26.08%,使大多数院校领导、大英教师和广大考生感到困惑.本文提出了解决四级考试中关键问题的主要方法.     

组织学习与知识转化的关系及IT对二者影响的探讨

基于组织学习与知识管理理论,将组织学习过程的4I模型与知识创新的SECI模型进行整合与扩展,探讨了组织学习的个体、团队及组织3个层次与隐性知识与显性知识2类知识形式的对应关系,以及组织学习过程与隐性-显性知识相互转化过程的动态匹配关系.与以往研究中将知识转移、共享与扩散作为一个知识的单向传递过程所不同的是,认为知识转化是一个螺旋上升的循环过程,是包含知识创新的持续学习过程,而IT将促进组织学习与知识转化的结合.最后,通过一个案例分析以展示IT对企业组织学习与知识转化的积极影响.     

P2P软件下载电影著作权侵权责任浅探

p2p技术是当前互联网络应用领域一项关键技术,它的出现大大缩短了网络中信息资源交换和传播所需的时间,极大地提高了人们的工作效率。但另一方面,该技术的广泛使用,也使得知识产权的保护面临严峻的挑战。本文就p2p技术对著作权的相关影响展开论述。