A lost family-planning regime in eighteenth-century Ceylon

Based on Dutch colonial registers (thombos), this paper reconstructs fertility for two districts in Ceylon, 1756–68. It overcomes challenges in data quality by establishing the outer bounds of plausible estimates in a series of scenarios. Among these, total fertility rates (TFRs) averaged 5.5 in one district, but only 2.7 in the other. These figures exclude the victims of infanticide, a custom noted in European travelogues between about 1660 and 1820. Sex ratios among children differed depending on the number of older siblings, and overall, 27?per cent of girls are missing in one district and 57?per cent in the other. There was little significant variation either in the TFR or the sex ratio by socio-economic status, suggesting that poverty was not a key factor in motivating infanticides. Instead, we argue that at least parts of Ceylon had a forward-looking culture of family planning in the eighteenth century, which was lost in subsequent decades.     

基于游客视角的旅游社会媒体使用收益分析

随着社会媒体的蓬勃发展,越来越多的旅游者开始使用各类社会化媒体规划旅游项目,获取和分享各类旅游经验与攻略。但现有研究尚未对游客使用社会化媒体主要关注的收益进行过分析,导致现有的旅游社会媒体客户端开发过程中对客户的需求了解不足,社会媒体产品存在功能千篇一律且无法满足消费者使用需求的现象。有鉴于此,研究从游客视角出发设计出19个收益指标。通过问卷调查的方法收集了游客层面的数据,并使用层次分析法（AHP）对这些指标的重要性进行了排序。研究结果发现相对于关系维护收益和群组聚集收益,即时沟通收益是消费者在使用旅游社会媒体过程中更为重要的感知收益;信息保存、信息公开透明化和知名度提升是游客使用旅游社会化媒体获取的三项重要收益。研究结果有助于有针对性地设计开发符合消费者需要的社会化媒体产品,改善社会媒体平台下游客参与率不高的现状。     

城市景观河流生态修复的产出研究及有效性可靠性检验——基于上海城市内河水质改善价值评估的实证分析

意愿价值评估法(CVM)为具有显著外部性的生态环境服务的价值评估提供可能,但只有经过有效性和可靠性检验的CVM成果才能应用于环境公共政策与治理。本文以CVM评价上海市城市景观内河——漕河泾港的生态恢复的产出,在国内经常采用的线形对数模型基础上,加入二值响应的Logit概率模型对受访者社会经济变量进行回归分析,验证本次CVM应用的理论有效性。回归中首次引入反映我国特殊社会结构的户籍变量、收入差距变量两者的交互项,并纳入间接反映环境问题历史成因的居民沿河居住期变量,以验证调查结果与一般经济理论的相容性和与我国特殊社会构成、经济态势以及环境历史成因的吻合性。以预调查和正式调查为试验—复试样本验证了研究结果的可靠性。结果表明:平均支付意愿是160元/(a.户),改善漕河泾水环境的年经济效益至少在6.1×106元。     

Selected indicators for evaluation of eco-innovation projects

This paper addresses a particular innovation projects category, that is, eco-innovation, in line with the fact that a lot of research has been recently carried out in this area, due to increasing attention. Eco-innovation projects are related to development and introducing the new products, processes and services that reduce the overall negative impact on the environment, putting the business and innovation together to create sustainable solutions. The aim of our research is developing a model for prioritization of the most frequent eco-innovation projects in the recycling field. It should be one of the key challenges for national economies as it happens to be one of the current priorities and burning issues for the European Commission (Horizon 2020, CIP, COSME, etc.), giving the proposed model framework. The ranking has been established with regard to common national economy benefits defined through identified criteria, by applying the well-known analytic hierarchy process method of multi-criteria decision-making.     

The multicriteria selection of products in technological diversification strategies: an application to the Spanish automotive industry based on AHP

The economic recession, the dynamism and complexity of the markets and the generalised globalisation of the world economy have forced many companies to rethink and reorganise their industrial strategies. Through identifying and taking advantage of the key technologies of a company, this work presents a new and original methodology for dealing with a general technological diversification process. The methodology, which includes an innovative cognitive perspective and its corresponding decisional tool (decision support system) has been used to select the best product in a process of technological diversification that, along with the key technologies, identifies the sub-levels consonant to the sub-technologies and applications to sectors and products. The multicriteria selection tool employed in the proposed methodology, based on the analytic hierarchy process, allows the integration of multiple scenarios, actors and criteria, both tangible and intangible. The methodology has been applied to a case study in the Spanish automotive auxiliary sector.     

Efficient Estimation of Parameters of the Negative Binomial Distribution

In this article we investigate a class of moment-based estimators, called power method estimators, which can be almost as efficient as maximum likelihood estimators and achieve a lower asymptotic variance than the standard zero term method and method of moments estimators. We investigate different methods of implementing the power method in practice and examine the robustness and efficiency of the power method estimators.     

社会工作研究的人文精神——对以实证主义为导向的美国社会工作研究的批判

长期以来,国际社会工作研究常常倾向于以实证主义和经验主义为基础的研究导向,特别是在美国,基于证据的研究方法在社会工作领域十分流行。随着全球化的推进和人们生活方式的现代化,社会工作研究所面临的问题更为复杂,其解决方法单纯依靠各种技术处理的手段来展开是远远不够的,我们在讨论这些问题时,要强化其价值导向。这要求我们在讨论社会工作研究的问题上,把我们的关注点从证据、技术手段和职业标准扩展到价值观、人文精神和对全球化问题的关注等方面,以此来推进国际社会工作的发展。     

Bivariate short distributions

The method of MML estimation for a univariate normal (Tiku 1967, 1973) is extended to a bivariate normal population. Thus, a theoretical foundation is given to the robust correlation coefficient proposed by Tiku and Balakrishnan (1986).     

基于加权群体AHP的企业资信评价方法

本文研究加权群体AHP方法及其在企件资信评价中的应用问题,建立了反映各专家或决策者优先权及各判断矩阵可信度的两种加权距离法,从主观和客观两方面切实有效地反映了各专家或决策者意见对最终评判结果的影响。企业资信评价是银行信贷风险管理的重要基础工作之一,各企业资信等级的正确评定取决于许多相关因素,需要各方面专家或决策者进行综合评判,合理的评判结果应反映各专家或决策者对各企业及信贷风险状况了解和认识的程度,同时应反映各专家或决策者对各企业评判所给出的判断矩阵的可信度,因此,本文建立以各专家或决策者优先权及各判断矩阵可信度为权系数的加权距离法,较好地解决了该问题。     

分支蚁群动态扰动算法求解TSP问题

蚁群优化算法是一种求解组合优化难题的强启发式算法,它利用正反馈和并行计算原理,具备很强的搜索能力。近年来,蚁群优化算法广泛应用于TSP问题的研究。本文提出分支蚁群动态扰动(DPBAC)算法,该算法主要从5个方面对基本蚁群算法做出改进:引入分支策略选取出发城市;改进状态转移规则;引入变异策略改进蚂蚁路径;改进信息素更新规则;引入条件动态扰动策略。实验表明,该算法可以有效改善基本蚁群算法搜索时间较长、容易陷入局部极小等缺点。