植物园解说系统二维码技术应用与设计

二维码技术是未来改变互联网十大技术之一,随着移动互联网的不断发展和移动智能产品的普及,二维码在植物园解说系统的应用势在必行.针对目前植物园解说系统存在解说方式单一、内容有限、媒介缺失和缺乏统一管理等主要问题,植物园解说系统应用二维码技术,具备包括扩充解说信息容量、优化游园导览线路、促进游客互动交流和实现科普教育等优势,利用新型二维码技术用所带来的新型解说模式,实现植物园解说系统的导游游览、环境教育、科学普及和生态保护等多种功能.     

On Some Two- and Three-dimensional D-minimax Designs for Estimating Slopes of a Third-order Response Surface

Design of experiments is considered for the situation where estimation of the slopes of a response surface is the main interest. Under the D-minimax criterion, the objective is to minimize the generalized variance of the estimated axial slopes at a point maximized over all points in the region of interest in the factor space. For the third-order model over spherical regions, the D-minimax designs are derived in two and three dimensions. The efficiencies of some two- and three-dimensional designs available in the literature are also investigated.     

需求与回应:一项关于流动儿童适应的再研究

人类有潜能帮助其自动地调适以寻求与环境的平衡,但人类的天赋与环境资源供给的相互作用才是增进人类适应的最终因素。流动儿童在与环境的互动中,资源供给欠缺,影响其适应。为了回应流动儿童的需求,需要从环境层面输入资源,培养其积极的自我认知与情绪体验,帮助其适应以寻求与环境的平衡。由于城乡间的差异给流动儿童带来的不适应、断裂及社会排斥,持续性的多系统整合介入是帮助流动儿童适应的重要因素。     

Developments in Maximum Likelihood Unit Root Tests

The exact maximum likelihood estimate provides a test statistic for the unit root test that is more powerful than the usual least-squares approach. In this article, a new derivation is given for the asymptotic distribution of this test statistic that is simpler and more direct than the previous method. The response surface regression method is used to obtain a fast algorithm that computes accurate finite-sample critical values. This algorithm is available in the R package mleur that is available on CRAN. The empirical power of the new test is shown to be much better than the usual test not only in the normal case but also for innovations generated from an infinite variance stable distribution as well as for innovations generated from a GARCH(1,1) process.     

混合题型的IRT等值问题研究

我们称既有0—1评分题,又有多级评分题的试卷为混合题型试卷,简称为混合题型．以往国内对混合题型的测验等值采用的方法是将Logistic模型看成是等级反应模型或拓广的分部评分模型的特例,这种处理方式就可能忽略了项目的猜测因素．为了解决这一问题,本文将三参数的Logistic模型和GRM进行扩展得到混合模型,并针对此模型开发了相应的等值程序．另外,为了检验某次测验0—1评分项目存在猜测,而人为将其忽略所带来的误差大小,本文进行了大量的MonteCarlo模拟实验．实验结果表明,若某测验中0—1评分项目存在猜测而等值时忽略这一事实误用GRM,在绝大部分情况下都比用混合模型等值的误差大而且有显著性差异,并且等值的误差会随着猜测度的的增大而增大．     

新生代农民工的矛盾性特征及其应对

当前,随着老一代农民工逐渐退出历史舞台,新生代农民工日益成为农民工群体的主体。虽然来源、务工时间和留城意愿等因素使得新生代农民工内部显现出一些差异性,但就整个新生代农民工群体来说,在其身上都或多或少地存在六大矛盾性特征。应对这些矛盾,需政府、社会和新生代农民工自身的共同努力。     

货币政策区域非对称性效应最新研究进展

有关货币政策区域非对称性效应的讨论是当前货币政策有效性研究的热点问题之一。这种效应的存在对各国货币政策当局带来了严重的挑战。货币政策区域非对称性效应的研究不能仅局限在国际货币联盟中,同样适用于单个国家内部,特别是内部发展差异较大的大国内部。从货币政策区域非对称性效应这一领域相关的成果的基础,对其产生的机制、实证研究、治理机制等角度进一步研究。     

国家与社会:明清的里社制与乡村秩序———以徽州“社会“为线索的考察

明清国家法律规定了里社制,随着里甲赋役制度的变革,里社制却逐渐废弛,被民间“社会”与民间信仰所取代。 “社会”在长期的祭祀活动中,因为社会关联形成集体意识,这种共识可对超出村庄、宗族的公共事务发布禁约,从而产生地区公共秩序。 国家法律与乡村秩序相互影响,在国家法律下行之时,乡村秩序则自生自发地生成回应型规则,认识和协调二者之关系,对于乡村治理有积极意义。     

《太上感应篇》:宗教文本与社会互动的典范

以道教理念为核心，《太上感应篇》融汇了佛教和儒学的若干内容，大约成于北宋仁、徽二宗之际。其形成当与中国宗教思想的运动和平民的社会化密切相关。《太上感应篇》既是一套伦理系统，也是一套解释系统，还是一套仪式系统，在中国社会近代化的过程中具有非同一般的影响。从一个纯粹的道教修仙文本转写成为一部化俗济世的善书，再演变成为一本全面的道德和社会手册，《太上感应篇》为我们揭示了宗教文本与社会的复杂的纠结关系──宗教文本的转写来自于社会的吁求，而一经转写，它又反而成为了社会再造的依据。     

Bayesian estimation of quantile distributions

Use of Bayesian modelling and analysis has become commonplace in many disciplines (finance, genetics and image analysis, for example). Many complex data sets are collected which do not readily admit standard distributions, and often comprise skew and kurtotic data. Such data is well-modelled by the very flexibly-shaped distributions of the quantile distribution family, whose members are defined by the inverse of their cumulative distribution functions and rarely have analytical likelihood functions defined. Without explicit likelihood functions, Bayesian methodologies such as Gibbs sampling cannot be applied to parameter estimation for this valuable class of distributions without resorting to numerical inversion. Approximate Bayesian computation provides an alternative approach requiring only a sampling scheme for the distribution of interest, enabling easier use of quantile distributions under the Bayesian framework. Parameter estimates for simulated and experimental data are presented.