Fuzzy System Dynamics Risk Analysis (FuSDRA) of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Operations in the Antarctic

With the maturing of autonomous technology and better accessibility, there has been a growing interest in the use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs). The deployment of AUVs for under-ice marine science research in the Antarctic is one such example. However, a higher risk of AUV loss is present during such endeavors due to the extreme operating environment. To control the risk of loss, existing risk analyses approaches tend to focus more on the AUV's technical aspects and neglect the role of soft factors, such as organizational and human influences. In addition, the dynamic and complex interrelationships of risk variables are also often overlooked due to uncertainties and challenges in quantification. To overcome these shortfalls, a hybrid fuzzy system dynamics risk analysis (FuSDRA) is proposed. In the FuSDRA framework, system dynamics models the interrelationships between risk variables from different dimensions and considers the time-dependent nature of risk while fuzzy logic accounts for uncertainties. To demonstrate its application, an example based on an actual Antarctic AUV program is presented. Focusing on funding and experience of the AUV team, simulation of the FuSDRA risk model shows a declining risk of loss from 0.293 in the early years of the Antarctic AUV program, reaching a minimum of 0.206 before increasing again in later years. Risk control policy recommendations were then derived from the analysis. The example demonstrated how FuSDRA can be applied to inform funding and risk management strategies, or broader application both within the AUV domain and on other complex technological systems.     

Make way for the wealthy? Autonomous vehicles,markets in mobility,and social justice

ABSTRACT

The development of a ‘mobility as a service’ model for accessing urban transport via autonomous vehicles may be expected to have far-reaching implications for the economics of road transport. In particular, it would offer a new opportunity to price access to the roads in accordance with the principles of the free market. Once people are paying for mobility on the roads on a ‘per trip’ basis, it will be possible to offer different levels of access – and service – at different prices. According to hegemonic ideas in the transport planning and economics literature the introduction of such a ‘market in mobility’ would be an economically efficient way of allocating access to the scarce good of space on the roads. In this paper we draw attention to a number of ethical and political challenges to the appropriateness of the use of such a pricing mechanism in the context of urban mobility.     

北京机动车环境外部成本的测算

针对噪声污染、大气污染、气候变化、土地资源占用等4种主要机动车环境污染,通过定量方法测度2006-2014年北京市机动车的环境外部成本。结果表明:机动车环境污染代价不仅受实际污染量、剂量暴露率等因素影响,还受当地疾病成本、人均收入、碳税价格和心理预期费用等机会成本因素约束,不同的成本体系测算出来的污染代价差异显著。以北京当地成本为例,2006年起北京机动车环境总代价有缓慢上升趋势,年平均增长6.7%,其中空气污染占比最大。环境总代价占当年GDP的比重平均约为0.56%,但污染的相对代价有所减少,且呈现下降趋势。机动车限制政策对环境污染影响有正面的影响效果,2012年以后这种效果逐步减弱。在此基础上,在政策层面认为应通过技术手段,改善机动车尾气污染;增加降噪设备,规范行为;加强重污染天气的预报等综合性手段,以控制机动车的外部性污染问题。     

How Should Autonomous Cars Drive? A Preference for Defaults in Moral Judgments Under Risk and Uncertainty

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) promise to make traffic safer, but their societal integration poses ethical challenges. What behavior of AVs is morally acceptable in critical traffic situations when consequences are only probabilistically known (a situation of risk) or even unknown (a situation of uncertainty)?  How do people retrospectively evaluate the behavior of an AV in situations in which a road user has been harmed? We addressed these questions in two empirical studies (N = 1,638) that approximated the real‐world conditions under which AVs operate by varying the degree of risk and uncertainty of the situation. In Experiment 1, subjects learned that an AV had to decide between staying in the lane or swerving. Each action could lead to a collision with another road user, with some known or unknown likelihood. Subjects’ decision preferences and moral judgments varied considerably with specified probabilities under risk, yet less so under uncertainty. The results suggest that staying in the lane and performing an emergency stop is considered a reasonable default, even when this action does not minimize expected loss. Experiment 2 demonstrated that if an AV collided with another road user, subjects’ retrospective evaluations of the default action were also more robust against unwanted outcome and hindsight effects than the alternative swerve maneuver. The findings highlight the importance of investigating moral judgments under risk and uncertainty in order to develop policies that are societally acceptable even under critical conditions.     

车载定位系统中综合地图匹配算法研究

基于加拿大亚伯达省政府远程运输RTS系统开发,在分析影响地图匹配性能因素的基础上,提出了一种基于高精密数字地图的综合地图匹配算法,融合了几何匹配算法和路网拓扑结构,充分利用车辆行驶的连续性,结合历史行驶数据选取投影道路,实现准确定位,且算法计算量小,可用于嵌入式实时系统.通过实际跑车试验证明该匹配算法精度高、效率好,具有较好的实用价值.     

关于《牵规》中计算传动效率的分析

本文系统分析了引用计算传动效率作为设计参数导致车辆计算制动能力与实际严重脱节的问题,提出用纯制动率作为车辆制动能力的设计参数的建议。     

我国企业资产证券化中破产隔离与真实销售研究

在证监会主导下，券商以专项资产管理计划为载体进行企业资产证券化试点。专项资产管理计划应用于资产证券化有其合理性和易操作性，但是由于其不具备法律主体资格，难以完全实现基础资产的真实销售，券商破产会直接影响专项计划的持续运作，导致破产隔离不彻底。为了长期发展企业资产证券化，需要在交易中引入信托概念，赋予受益凭证明确的法律性质，突破目前法律和体制的羁绊通过建立基础资产选择标准、限制券商角色范围等措施，规范企业资产证券化各个交易环节。     

完善民族地区教育财政转移支付制度的迫切性及对策思考

民族地区教育具有多重的正外部性.本文论述搞好民族地区教育财政转移支付制度的迫切性,并结合教育事业和民族地区的特点,尝试提出完善这一制度的对策思路.     

基于“雨课堂”的小学英语翻转课堂教学研究

本文在分析翻转课堂与传统课堂区别的基础上,借助“雨课堂”平台,首先构建了基于“雨课堂”的小学英语翻转课堂教学模式。并基于此模式,选择人教版小学英语四年级下册第二单元第一课时,从课前自主学习、课中知识内化及课后学习升华等翻转课堂的三个方面入手,进行了详细的翻转课堂教学设计并在实践中进行检验。最后,根据教学实践梳理出教学设计方案实施过程中遇到的问题,并提出解决策略,为其他学者做小学英语翻转课堂研究提供相关借鉴。     

Encouraging emergence of cross-business strategic initiatives

We explore how strategic initiatives emerge at the business unit level in the context of multi-business firms. Findings show that such initiatives create cross-business synergies in the absence of any direct intervention from the headquarters. Four factors appeared to foster the development of autonomous cross-business collaboration: a sense of urgency at the level of the firm, the existence of a few broad but strong corporate strategic guidelines, the existence of a set of cross-business integration mechanisms, and an organizational culture promoting collaboration. Our findings suggest that, in addition to developing and enforcing top-down cross-business initiatives, headquarters would benefit from acknowledging the importance of business units' local knowledge by creating an organizational environment characterized by the four conditions identified in this paper.