Disaster and Development Paradigms: Too Close for Comfort?

The familiar distinctions between the disaster and development paradigms have become increasingly blurred. Yet, conceptual and policy dilemmas continue to pose challenges for the integration of the two paradigms into a single framework. Drawing on the literature and Ethiopia's Institutional Support Project, this article argues that the increased convergence of the two constructs may be too close for comfort, thus rendering the assertion that disaster‐risk reduction can help achieve sustainable development and vice versa mere rhetoric. Unless there is a shift from focusing on the hazard event to also recognising that disasters are not politically neutral, there is a danger of being locked into the hazard paradigm, despite the different labels, titles or metaphors that may be assigned to it.     

The Effectiveness of Risk Management: An Analysis of Project Risk Planning Across Industries and Countries

This article examines the effectiveness of current risk management practices to reduce project risk using a multinational, multi‐industry study across different scenarios and cultures. A survey was administered to 701 project managers, and their supervisors, in seven industries and three diverse countries (New Zealand, Israel, and Japan), in multiple languages during the 2002–2007 period. Results of this study show that project context—industry and country where a project is executed—significantly impacts perceived levels of project risk, and the intensity of risk management processes. Our findings also suggest that risk management moderates the relationship between risk level and project success. Specifically, we found that even moderate levels of risk management planning are sufficient to reduce the negative effect risk levels have on project success.     

Systems innovation manager

Each year organizations spend a significant amount of money developing new products and processes in an effort to satisfy customer demands and manufacture high-quality products efficiently. Both development processes - product and process, are complex, resource intensive and thrive on innovation. They demand a variety of skills and resources, but in particular, participation among all staff in generating ideas, managing projects and implementing change. There are currently a number of software tools and methods that facilitate change in a systems environment. These range from complex modelling tools to information management tools. The tools have been developed around paradigms, e.g. world class manufacturing, total quality management and business process reengineering. They are often complex, requiring the efforts of skilled designers and managers. Current thinking within a systems environment reflects a more participative and less specialist approach to managing innovation and change. There is a need to create compromise between detailed project engineering and good management practice. This paper introduces a new paradigm centred on good management practice, and identifies the critical issues in systems innovation and change. The paradigm is articulated through a series of change levers and a methodology that guides managers and designers. It is supported by a series of software tools that together bring innovation management to life within the industrial organization.     

项目风险分析与管理

本文在分析比较传统风险分析方法的基础上,提出了一个更为有效的风险分析方法,即“交叉分析-蒙特卡罗模拟”综合模型。并利用此模型对H集团的某技改投资项目进行了案例分析。在此基础上,提出了建立项目风险防范预警系统的风险管理模式。     

Probabilistic Reliability Modeling for Oil Exploration & Production (E&P) Facilities in the Tallgrass Prairie Preserve

The aging domestic oil production infrastructure represents a high risk to the environment because of the type of fluids being handled (oil and brine) and the potential for accidental release of these fluids into sensitive ecosystems. Currently, there is not a quantitative risk model directly applicable to onshore oil exploration and production (E&P) facilities. We report on a probabilistic reliability model created for onshore exploration and production (E&P) facilities. Reliability theory, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), and event trees were used to develop the model estimates of the failure probability of typical oil production equipment. Monte Carlo simulation was used to translate uncertainty in input parameter values to uncertainty in the model output. The predicted failure rates were calibrated to available failure rate information by adjusting probability density function parameters used as random variates in the Monte Carlo simulations. The mean and standard deviation of normal variate distributions from which the Weibull distribution characteristic life was chosen were used as adjustable parameters in the model calibration. The model was applied to oil production leases in the Tallgrass Prairie Preserve, Oklahoma. We present the estimated failure probability due to the combination of the most significant failure modes associated with each type of equipment (pumps, tanks, and pipes). The results show that the estimated probability of failure for tanks is about the same as that for pipes, but that pumps have much lower failure probability. The model can provide necessary equipment reliability information for proactive risk management at the lease level by providing quantitative information to base allocation of maintenance resources to high-risk equipment that will minimize both lost production and ecosystem damage.     

论现代项目管理的四大转变

项目作为企业及国民经济发展的基本单元,是企业乃至国家竞争力的重要支撑。目前,项目管理已经成为一个新兴的学科和行业,在全球得到广泛应用并取得巨大成功。现代项目管理与传统项目管理相比出现了4大转变:从艺术到科学、从经验到理性;从实现″三大约束″到使利益相关者满意;从项目式管理到“按项目进行管理”;从项目实施者到职业经理人。     

Project Adventure体育课程模式对大学生社会适应能力的影响

针对我国大学生社会适应能力的现状,采用文献资料调研、动态性现场实验等方法,以大学生社会适应能力提高的有效途径与方法为研究对象,对高校体育课程中运用Project Adventure体育教育模式的可行性和必要性进行了分析,指出高校体育课程中Project Adventure体育教育模式是促进大学生社会适应能力较为有效的途径与方法,并提出了将Project Adventure体育教学模式作为高校体育课程开设的思路与对策。     

生态屏障投融资主体多元化和企业组织形式创新研究

目前我国生态屏障建设主要依靠政府作为单一主体进行投融资,资金不足严重制约了生态屏障建设的深层次发展。从生态屏障建设投融资的角度进行深入研究,以理论创新和实践创新拓宽资金来源、理顺资金通道是推动生态屏障建设的关键性工作。通过对企业参与生态屏障建设的可行性、必要性进行深入分析和研究,提出了建立生态屏障建设有限公司、生态屏障产业投资基金、信托投资公司等多种企业组织形式创新。     

古史年代学研究的误区--夏商周断代工程金文历谱问题分析

构建金文历谱以推求古史年代的方法,在目前对上古历法不能考明的情况下还不可行。夏商周断代工程依据少量铜器断代所建立的推定西周王年的支点多不可靠,为构建金文历谱所预设的西周历法要点也仍有待证明。工程列为标志性成果之一的共和以下历谱,由于不知共和原不单独纪年,可能问题最多,而由此上推共和以前年代亦必致多误。     

总体分高低成本下的复合多目标抽样方案的设计与应用

文章依据复合多目标抽样的基本原理,提出了高低成本指标广义相关下的多目标复合抽样方法的设计方案,探讨了依广义相关性进行分类的抽样方案在精度和成本方面的优良性,并进行了实际比较与应用。