统一市场下的成份股票指数编制方法研究

本文通过因子分析、聚类分析等统计方法、在假定沪、深两市融合为一个市场的前提下,实证研究了编制成份股票价格指数的选股模型,使得该模型在最大程度上利用了上市公司的财务报告以及股票价格反映出的股票波动特性,保证样本股票覆盖到现有的各个行业,同时使该选股方法能够适应未来股市扩容发展的需要。本文的目的就是提出一个能够相对客观、全面地反映市场的宽基成份指数的编制模型。     

要素密集度视角下中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易合作潜力及提升路径研究——基于254种产品贸易的证据

十年来,“一带一路”已成为新时代中国对外贸易合作的新亮点。文章基于新经济地理学理论,以“一带一路”沿线60个国家为研究样本,利用2001—2019年跨国面板数据,从空间视阈运用动态空间面板随机前沿模型检验了要素禀赋对中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易合作的影响效应,在此基础上分析了中国与“一带一路”国家贸易合作效率的变化特征,并分析了不同类别商品贸易的合作潜力,进而结合二维矩阵思想依据要素禀赋和贸易潜力的适配性提出未来释放贸易合作潜力的路径。研究结论表明:基于互联互通指数构建空间互联互通矩阵,检验发现中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易合作存在时间—空间双重正向依存关系,自然资源要素和资本要素对中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易合作具有显著促进作用,而劳动力要素方面存在一定“竞争关系”,创新要素的贸易促进效应尚未充分发挥。在控制变量方面,东道国经济规模、工业化程度、城镇化水平、两国间存在共同边界、签订协议和加入世界贸易组织贸易均有利于中国与“一带一路”国家间贸易合作,地理距离仍然是阻碍双边贸易合作的重要因素。除此之外,双边贸易合作还会受到非效率因素的影响,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家间贸易合作尚有较大拓展潜力,以上结论经过贸易距离矩阵和经济地理矩阵稳健性检验后依然成立。在异质性方面,进一步发现中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易合作存在明显产品异质性特征。在贸易效率方面,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易合作效率不断提升,尚未达到“最优状态”。从贸易潜力层级看,再造型贸易伙伴数量最少,成长型贸易伙伴居多,不同类别产品贸易潜力层级结构呈现非均衡结构特征。最后,结合二维矩阵思想,依据要素禀赋与贸易潜力的适配性,可将贸易伙伴划分为集约高效型、效率引领型、稳步提升型和规模扩张型四类贸易伙伴,在此基础上提出单边突破式、扬优补短渐进式和跨越式三种贸易潜力释放路径,为促进“一带一路”实现“贸易畅通”,高质量推动共建“一带一路”提供重要参考和借鉴。     

Estimating and testing conditional sums of means in high dimensional multivariate binary data

We study the estimation of the strength of signals corresponding to the high valued observations in multivariate binary data. These problems can arise in a variety of areas, such as mass spectrometry or function magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), where the underlying signals could be interpreted as a proxy for biochemical or physiological response to a condition or treatment. More specifically, the problem we consider involves estimating the sum of a collection of binomial probabilities corresponding to large values of the associated binomial random variables. We emphasize the case where the dimension is much greater than the sample size, and most of the probabilities of the events of interest are close to zero. Two estimation approaches are proposed: conditional maximum likelihood and nonparametric empirical Bayes. We use these estimators to construct a test of homogeneity for two groups of high dimensional multivariate binary data. Simulation studies on the size and power of the proposed tests are given, and the tests are demonstrated using mass spectrometry data from a breast cancer study.     

Consistency of Bayes estimators without the assumption that the model is correct

We examine a more general form of consistency which does not necessarily rely on the correct specification of the likelihood in the Bayesian setting, but we restrict the form of the likelihood to be in a minimal standard exponential family. First, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the Bayes estimator of a parameter, and show that the Bayes estimator is consistent under the condition that the exponential family is full. However, we find that θ_i=θ_j and ∥θ_i−θ_j∥<ε, even for very small ε, behave differently, even in an asymptotic manner, when the model is not correct. We note that the distinction applies generally to Bayesian testing problems.     

On a class of distributions on the simplex

In the present paper we define and investigate a novel class of distributions on the simplex, termed normalized infinitely divisible distributions, which includes the Dirichlet distribution. Distributional properties and general moment formulae are derived. Particular attention is devoted to special cases of normalized infinitely divisible distributions which lead to explicit expressions. As a by-product new distributions over the unit interval and a generalization of the Bessel function distribution are obtained.     

中国省域保险业发展影响因素的空间计量分析

运用空间常系数空间滞后模型、空间误差模型和空间变系数的地理加权回归模型,对中国省域的保险业发展进行空间计量分析。研究结果表明：中国31个省域的保险业发展在空间分布上具有明显的空间正自相关关系,各省域保险业的发展主要受到地区经济发展水平、产业结构、人口抚养状况、教育水平和社会保障水平的影响,并且这些因素对保险业的发展都有着显著的正向作用。     

人口安全的定义、内涵与影响因素

20世纪90年代以来,人口发展的风险问题已经引起越来越多的关注。2003年6月,中国学者和中国政府率先提出了“人口安全”的新概念,并指出要进一步强化全社会的人口安全意识,建立人口安全的警戒线。2003年春天的非典疫情是一次威胁人口安全的重大事件,提醒我们应当增强人口安全意识。人口安全,是事关经济安全、政治安全和国家安全的重大问题。但是如何准确地把握“人口安全”的科学内涵和政策含义还有待深入、系统、全面的研讨。     

企业所得税诚信纳税单因素分析模型的设计及应用——以山东省外商投资企业为例

外资企业纳税是否诚信将直接影响到我国吸引外资的质量和水平。当前外商投资企业偷逃所得税的情况较为严重,而当前我国关于诚信纳税的理论还不很完善,专门针对所得税诚信纳税的研究更为缺乏。采用规范性分析和实证性分析相结合的方法,以山东省外商投资企业为例进行研究提出所得税诚信纳税单因素分析模型,研究结果表明：在税收弹性大于等于平均税负时企业诚信纳税,诚信纳税度较高;而在税收弹性小于平均税负时企业存在非诚信纳税行为,诚信纳税度较低。     

农民合作的影响因素：湖南个案

对于农民合作的影响因素,学术界主要有四种观点：利益因素、制度因素、市场因素和能人因素。通过对湖南衡阳县砖塘村莲子加工产业的个案分析,认为＂合作难＂的现象是利益因素、制度因素、市场因素和能人因素共同影响的结果,其中利益因素是莲子加工业能否形成合作的重要因素,能人因素是合作能否形成的关键因素,制度和市场因素是合作能否形成的充分非必要条件。     

Identifying key influencers of Chinese PR practitioners’ strategic conflict management practice: A survey on contingent variables in Chinese context

As the first quantitative test of contingency theory in China using an online survey, this study examined the influence of each of the over 80 individual contingent variables as perceived by Chinese public relations practitioners. Individual characteristics as related to conflict management as well as political–social factors were identified as the most influential variables. By forming influential contingent factors and exploring the dimensionality of these factors using factor analysis, the results of this study suggested structural stability of the contingency matrix. Further, the effects of gender and types of organizations were tested on how Chinese practitioners perceive these influences in their public relations practice. The findings provide insights for both practitioners and researchers on how to strategically identify and combine the most influential factors in effective and ethical conflict management in China.