零售商竞争环境下分散式供应链的定价与交货期联合决策模型

考虑了由一个制造商和两个相互竞争的零售商组成的两阶段分散式供应链系统,建立了价格和时间双敏感需求下的供应链定价与交货期联合决策模型,并给出了基于Stackelberg博弈的供应链定价和承诺交货期的最优决策。随后,以集中式供应链的决策为基准,分析了分散式供应链决策的效率。最后,通过数值分析,研究了市场因素和营销渠道竞争因素对分散式供应链的决策效率及承诺交货期的影响。结果表明,供应链下游的渠道竞争有利于提高分散式供应链的决策效率和缩短承诺交货期,从而提高整个供应链的市场竞争力。     

服务多类需求串行供应链的最优控制策略

研究由一系列生产环节采用串行方式组成多级供应链的最优控制策略.在此供应链中,原材料经过各级生产环节顺序加工形成最终产品.各级生产环节的加工时间服从随机分布.对最终产品存在多类随机需求.在每个时刻,管理者需要决定:1)是否该启动某个生产环节的生产;2)当有需求到达时,是否该满足此需求.管理者期望系统运行的总期望折扣成本最小.构造了该系统的马尔可夫决策模型并深入研究了其最优控制策略及其动态协同特性.在生产策略方面,证明系统的最优生产策略就是对各级生产环节采用动态的基本库存策略.该策略的动态协同特性主要体现在各级生产环节的最优基本库存水平受其他生产环节的库存水平影响.在产品分配方面,证明系统的最优分配策略是动态配给策略.该策略的动态协同特性主要体现在每类随机需求最优配给水平受各级生产环节的库存水平影响.     

Product Quality Risk Perceptions and Decisions: Contaminated Pet Food and Lead‐Painted Toys

In the context of the recent recalls of contaminated pet food and lead‐painted toys in the United States, we examine patterns of risk perceptions and decisions when facing consumer product‐caused quality risks. Two approaches were used to explore risk perceptions of the product recalls. In the first approach, we elicited judged probabilities and found that people appear to have greatly overestimated the actual risks for both product scenarios. In the second approach, we applied the psychometric paradigm to examine risk perception dimensions concerning these two specific products through factor analysis. There was a similar risk perception pattern for both products: they are seen as unknown risks and are relatively not dread risks. This pattern was also similar to what prior research found for lead paint. Further, we studied people's potential actions to deal with the recalls of these two products. Several factors were found to be significant predictors of respondents’ cautious actions for both product scenarios. Policy considerations regarding product quality risks are discussed. For example, risk communicators could reframe information messages to prompt people to consider total risks packed together from different causes, even when the risk message has been initiated due to a specific recall event.     

Sizing Inventory When Lead Time and Demand are Correlated

Determining appropriate inventory levels has been a subject of interest for both researchers and practitioners. Standard practice is to treat lead time demand as a random sum of random numbers and rely on established probability theory to calculate both reorder point and safety stock levels. A key assumption in these calculations, however, is that lead time and demand are not correlated. In this paper, we first explore situations where this assumption is untrue and then develop equations to determine the reorder point and the safety stock when lead time and demand are correlated. More specifically, we (1) derive formulas for the average and variance of the demand in a lead time, which can then be used to calculate the reorder point and the safety stock, (2) apply these formulas to two distributions for which there is a closed‐form solution: normal and Poisson, and (3) examine the effect of correlation on safety stock requirements under the normal distribution.     

The Bullwhip Effect—Impact of Stochastic Lead Time,Information Quality,and Information Sharing: A Simulation Study

We use a simulation model called ‘SISCO’ to examine the effects in supply chains of stochastic lead times and of information sharing and quality of that information in a periodic order‐up‐to level inventory system. We test the accuracy of the simulation by verifying the results in Chen et al. (2000a) and Dejonckheere et al. (2004). We find that lead‐time variability exacerbates variance amplification in a supply chain, and that information sharing and information quality are highly significant. For example, using the assumptions in Chen et al. (2000a) and Dejonckheere et al. (2004), we find in a numerical experiment of a customer‐retailer‐wholesaler‐distributor‐factory supply chain that variance amplification is attenuated by nearly 50 percent at the factory due to information sharing. Other assumptions we make are based on interviews or conversations with managers at large supply chains.     

Serious case reviews: learning to use expertise

While undertaking an analysis of 20 serious case reviews for the Welsh Assembly Government, the authors became aware of important, largely unexplored, practice issues with implications for training, service delivery and the role of the lead professional. The reviews were studied using a ‘layered reading’ methodology to ensure that emerging themes were grounded entirely in the reports. In looking beyond the familiar recurring themes and practice failings, findings emerged about the use of expertise in its widest sense. The need for more skilled use of expertise was identified, from external specialists and child protection specialists, and from children, siblings and parents. Professionals from agencies who contribute less routinely to the process of safeguarding children should be consulted as experts and be empowered to play a fuller part. Consultation could often be used prior to, or in place of referral. The barrier to the collation and analysis of relevant information often appeared to be a failure to recognize and understand expertise rather than a lack of communication as often postulated in review reports. Skilled use of expertise and consultation in a coordinated manner could result in more rigorous assessments and promote greater professional trust, confidence and challenge. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

坚持社会主义荣辱观引领新时期社会思潮

社会主义荣辱观引领新时期社会思潮具有必要性。多样化社会思潮之间的差异性提供了"引领"的逻辑起点;社会主义荣辱观自身的先进性及科学性提供了"引领"的能力基础;新时期社会思潮消极作用的客观存在提供了"引领"的合理空间。社会主义荣辱观引领新时期社会思潮有以下措施:明确社会主义荣辱观对社会思潮的引领地位;坚持社会主义荣辱观塑造社会思潮的主体基础;依靠社会主义荣辱观净化社会思潮的存在环境。     

某自锚式悬索桥减震性能研究

以某自锚式悬索桥为研究对象,采用非线性时程分析方法,对整体式减隔震装置铅芯橡胶支座对自锚式悬索桥的减震性能进行研究。通过对在辅助墩上布置铅芯橡胶支座和普通橡胶支座的自锚式悬索桥的抗震性能对比分析,得到在辅助墩上布置铅芯橡胶支座对自锚式悬索桥的地震效应减震效果明显的结论。     

宗教工作与新疆和谐社会的构建

在新疆,信教群众占总人口的半数以上,宗教与民族、周边环境等问题紧密交织,做好宗教工作,关系到新疆稳定发展的全局及新疆和谐社会的构建。从理论层面和历史经验看,宗教对和谐社会的构建都具有突出的两重性;但从实践层面看,宗教对构建和谐社会的作用,既取决于宗教界的政治立场,更取决于政府政策的取向及管理、引导的水平。促使宗教参与和谐社会的构建,应遵循党的宗教工作方针,紧密结合新疆实际,稳妥处理当前宗教工作中面临的诸多热点问题,引导宗教界为全面建设小康社会贡献聪明才智,走文化宗教之路,使宗教朝着更加理性、宽容和适应时代进步潮流的方向发展。     

重视对社会思潮的引导与巩固社会主义意识形态

正是由于社会思潮存在于社会生活的各个领域、各个方面,对社会发展产生重要的影响,在社会意识形态结构中具有特殊地位和作用,因此,巩固社会主义意识形态,必须对各种社会思潮及其表现形式进行全面深刻的研究和正确的引导。正是由于在改革开放新的历史条件下,西方社会思潮对我国产生了深刻影响,加剧了各种思想的相互激荡,给社会主义意识形态建设带来新的挑战,因此.必须对西方社会思潮进行科学分析和研究,并结合我国实际进行合理传播和正确引导。重视对社会思潮及其表现形式的研究和引导,就是我们党对巩固社会主义意识形态规律性认识的生动体现。