The generalized fluctuation test: A unifying view

In this paper, a general principle of constructing tests for parameter constancy without assuming a specific alternative is introduced. A unified asymptotic result is established to analyze this class of tests. As applications, tests based on the range of recursive and moving estimates are considered, and their asymptotic distributions are characterized analytically. Our simulations show that different tests have quite different behavior under various alternatives and that no test uniformly dominates the other tests.     

Calibrated path sampling and stepwise bridge sampling

A computational problem in many fields is to evaluate multiple integrals and expectations simultaneously. Consider probability distributions with unnormalized density functions indexed by parameters on a 2-dimensional grid, and assume that samples are simulated from distributions on a subgrid. Examples of such unnormalized density functions include the observed-data likelihoods in the presence of missing data and the prior times the likelihood in Bayesian inference. There are various methods using a single sample only or multiple samples jointly to compute each integral. Path sampling seems a compromise, using samples along a 1-dimensional path to compute each integral. However, different choices of the path lead to different estimators, which should ideally be identical. We propose calibrated estimators by the method of control variates to exploit such constraints for variance reduction. We also propose biquadratic interpolation to approximate integrals with parameters outside the subgrid, consistently with the calibrated estimators on the subgrid. These methods can be extended to compute differences of expectations through an auxiliary identity for path sampling. Furthermore, we develop stepwise bridge-sampling methods in parallel but complementary to path sampling. In three simulation studies, the proposed methods lead to substantially reduced mean squared errors compared with existing methods.     

An alternative to unit root tests: Bridge estimators differentiate between nonstationary versus stationary models and select optimal lag

This paper introduces a novel way of differentiating a unit root from stationary alternatives using so-called “Bridge” estimators; this estimation procedure can potentially generate exact zero estimates of parameters. We exploit this property and treat this as a model selection problem. We show that Bridge estimators can select the correct model with probability tending to 1. They estimate “zero” parameter on the lagged dependent variable as zero (nonstationarity), if this is nonzero (stationary), estimate the coefficient with standard normal limit. In this sense, we extend the statistics literature as well, since that literature only deals with model selection among only stationary variables.     

论新亚欧大陆桥与江苏区域共同发展战略

苏北地区之所以长期处于江苏经济的欠发达地区,关键在于在沿海对外开放战略和江苏区域发展战略中没有形成对生产力诸要素的集聚有竞争力的平台,处于竞争的相对劣势。依据新亚欧大陆桥东桥头堡的特殊地位对连云港发展定位的要求,提出适应新亚欧大陆桥发展的要求,加快东桥头堡连云港的建设,对培育撬动苏北经济发展的支点,为苏北营造加快生产力发展诸要素集聚的强势平台,实现苏北的快速崛起,进而推进江苏区域共同发展战略的实施具有重要的现实意义和深远的战略意义。     

新亚欧大陆桥桥头堡区域空间格局重构研究

新亚欧大陆桥桥头堡区域的开发是江苏省“三沿”开发战略之一,也是我国沿海地区全面崛起的重要突破点。分析认为,区域内中等城市缺失造成城镇体系失衡,交通轴线局限于横向发展,纵向扩展受约束,县城经济中部断裂,空间差异十分明显,徐连两市难以支撑整个产业带的经济发展,提出了桥头堡区域应以科学发展观为指导,建立以中点新沂为核心的多层次双核结构模式,形成第一层主双核结构——徐连双核、第二级小双核结构——“新邳”、“新宿”、“新临”小双核,构成十字形空间结构体系,支撑区域经济与社会和谐发展。     

大同御河兴云桥的历史及建筑形制

御河是大同市内最主要的一条河流，它由北而南从城东门外流过。作为东出必经之路，御河桥上建置桥梁有着悠久的历史。目前，根据考古出土文物及参考文献可以得知，御河上建桥有确切记载始于金代，它是一座五拱石桥，元代重修时命名“兴云桥”。金代御河桥经元明二代历时四百余年，万历八年拓故基重建为十九孔石拱桥，‘仍名兴云桥，清嘉庆年间倾圯。     

润扬大桥与镇、扬两市产业结构调整

润扬大桥的建设 ,为镇江、扬州两地经济发展提供了新的契机 ,镇、扬两地已具备产业结构转型的客观条件 ,润扬大桥可以为双方进一步调整生产力空间布局起到一定的作用 ,但双方须面对现实存在的问题 ,从合作的愿望出发 ,力求全方位地寻找合作点 ,最大限度地以大桥优势激活已有生产力资源 ,共同调整和优化自身产业结构。由于产业结构调整以及区域经济合作的复杂性 ,本文从充分利用大桥建设角度 ,提出几点建议     

新疆借助新亚欧大陆桥兴建中亚物流港的对策

区位优势、中亚区域经济合作、物流发展、运输合作机制的初步建立、口岸体系的初步形成为新疆发展物流业提供了难得的机遇,但跨境陆路运输协调、口岸通关能力弱、物流体系发展滞后是新疆兴建中亚物漉港存在的制约因素.发展特色物流、打遣高效物流通道、培育物流企业联盟是新疆借助新亚欧大陆桥兴建中亚物流港、促进新疆经济发展的一个重要方面.     

浅析自组惠斯登电桥的灵敏度

探究自组惠斯登电桥的灵敏度,分析影响电桥灵敏度的因素,用实验结果与理论计算作比较.     

阳明四句教及四有四无说论争之现代诠释

作为中国哲学史上一大公案,关于阳明四句教及四有四无说的论争一直聚讼纷纭。实际上,四无乃龙溪实持之说,四有则为龙溪虚立之名。天泉证道之后问题发生了转换,不再是四有四无之争,而是以“四无”及“无善无恶”为中心的两层质疑：龙溪四无说是否违背阳明宗旨？阳明“无善无恶”说是否违背儒家正道？依牟宗三之“共法说”,阳明、龙溪不但不是“禅”,而且还对传统儒学有重大贡献,是儒学义理圆熟和发展过程中的一大环节。阳明、龙溪等能突破长期以来的禁忌,发挥这种“无”的智慧,从而将传统儒学推进到义理更为圆熟的新境界。这也是儒家学说自身发展的必然要求。阳明“无善无恶”、龙溪“四无说”的独特创新之处和巨大贡献在于此,而他们备受误会和责难的深层原因亦在于此。