The Analysis of Survey Data with Framing Effects

A well-known difficulty in survey research is that respondents’ answers to questions can depend on arbitrary features of a survey’s design, such as the wording of questions or the ordering of answer choices. In this paper, we describe a novel set of tools for analyzing survey data characterized by such framing effects. We show that the conventional approach to analyzing data with framing effects—randomizing survey-takers across frames and pooling the responses—generally does not identify a useful parameter. In its place, we propose an alternative approach and provide conditions under which it identifies the responses that are unaffected by framing. We also present several results for shedding light on the population distribution of the individual characteristic the survey is designed to measure.     

基于协变量平衡加权的平均处理效应的稳健有效估计

倾向性得分是估计平均处理效应的重要工具。但在观察性研究中,通常会由于协变量在处理组与对照组分布的不平衡性而导致极端倾向性得分的出现,即存在十分接近于0或1的倾向性得分,这使得因果推断的强可忽略假设接近于违背,进而导致平均处理效应的估计出现较大的偏差与方差。Li等(2018a)提出了协变量平衡加权法,在无混杂性假设下通过实现协变量分布的加权平衡,解决了极端倾向性得分带来的影响。本文在此基础上,提出了基于协变量平衡加权法的稳健且有效的估计方法,并通过引入超级学习算法提升了模型在实证应用中的稳健性;更进一步,将前一方法推广至理论上不依赖于结果回归模型和倾向性得分模型假设的基于协变量平衡加权的稳健有效估计。蒙特卡洛模拟表明,本文提出的两种方法在结果回归模型和倾向性得分模型均存在误设时仍具有极小的偏差和方差。实证部分将两种方法应用于右心导管插入术数据,发现右心导管插入术大约会增加患者6. 3%死亡率。     

Bayesian estimation and prediction of the intensity of the power law process

In analyzing failure data pertaining to a repairable system, perhaps the most widely used parametric model is a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with Weibull intensity, more commonly referred to as the Power Law Process (PLP) model. Investigations relating to inference of parameters of the PLP under a frequentist framework abound in the literature. The focus of this article is to supplement those findings from a Bayesian perspective, which has thus far been explored to a limited extent in this context. Main emphasis is on the inference of the intensity function of the PLP. Both estimation and future prediction are considered under traditional as well as more complex censoring schemes. Modern computational tools such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo are exploited efficiently to facilitate the numerical evaluation process. Results from the Bayesian inference are contrasted with the corresponding findings from a frequentist analysis, both from a qualitative and a quantitative viewpoint. The developed methodology is implemented in analyzing interval-censored failure data of equipments in a fleet of marine vessels.     

论演绎的辩护

与归纳逻辑类似,演绎逻辑也面临着合理性问题。演绎逻辑的辩护问题是逻辑哲学中的重要问题。人们不能用归纳逻辑为演绎做辩护,用演绎逻辑为演绎做辩护也将导致失败。以往的演绎辩护,除了导致循环论证之外,还另有失败原因。在元语言中为对象语言的理论做辩护,这将导致无限的后退,最终也跳不出语言的范围。演绎逻辑是人们发明出来的推理工具,同时也是一种严格按照规则进行的游戏,人们对它无法做出本体论或认识论的辩护。     

Cohpasisons of improved bonferroni and sidak/slepian bounds with applications to normal markov processes

The recent literature contains theorems improving on both the standard Bonferroni inequality (Hoover (1990)) and the Sidak/Slepian inequalities (Glaz and Johnson (1984)), The application of these improved theorems to upper bounds for non coverage of simultaneous confidence intervals on multivariate normal variables is explored. The improved Bonferroni upper bounds always hold, while improved Sidak/Slepian bounds only apply to special cases. It is shown that improved Sidak/Slepian bounds will always hold for Normal Markov Processes, a commonly occuring and easily identifiable class of multivariate normal variables. The improved Sidak/Slepian upper bound, if it applies, is proven to be superior to the computationally equivalent improved Bonferroni bound. This improvement, however, is not great when both methods are used to determine upper bounds for Type I error in the range of .01 to .10.     

Entropy-Based Moment Selection in the Presence of Weak Identification

Hall et al. (2007 Hall , A. R. , Inoue , A. , Jana , K. , Shin , C. (2007). Information in generalized method of moments estimation and entropy based moment selection. Journal of Econometrics 138:488–512.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) propose a method for moment selection based on an information criterion that is a function of the entropy of the limiting distribution of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator. They establish the consistency of the method subject to certain conditions that include the identification of the parameter vector by at least one of the moment conditions being considered. In this article, we examine the limiting behavior of this moment selection method when the parameter vector is weakly identified by all the moment conditions being considered. It is shown that the selected moment condition is random and hence not consistent in any meaningful sense. As a result, we propose a two-step procedure for moment selection in which identification is first tested using a statistic proposed by Stock and Yogo (2003 Stock , J. H. , Yogo , M. ( 2003 ). Testing for weak instruments in linear IV regression . Discussion paper, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA . [Google Scholar]) and then only if this statistic indicates identification does the researcher proceed to the second step in which the aforementioned information criterion is used to select moments. The properties of this two-step procedure are contrasted with those of strategies based on either using all available moments or using the information criterion without the identification pre-test. The performances of these strategies are compared via an evaluation of the finite sample behavior of various methods for inference about the parameter vector. The inference methods considered are based on the Wald statistic, Anderson and Rubin's (1949 Anderson , T. W. , Rubin , H. ( 1949 ). Estimation of the parameters of a single equation in a complete system of stochastic equations . Annals of Mathematical Statistics 20 : 46 – 63 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) statistic, Kleibergen (2002 Kleibergen , F. ( 2002 ). Pivotal statistics for testing structural parameters in instrumenatl variables regression . Econometrica 70 : 1781 – 1803 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) K statistic, and combinations thereof in which the choice is based on the outcome of the test for weak identification.     

中西思维方式的比较-- 对《尚书·洪范》和《工具论·范畴篇》的分析

从推衍形式及其范畴基础这两个方面比较中西两种思维形式,中国思维形式表现为"纯粹关系映射推衍",其推衍形式是"关系映射",其范畴基础是"纯粹关系";西方思维形式表现为"实体关系套接推衍",其推衍形式是"关系套接",其范畴基础是"实体关系"。对此,可以从《尚书·洪范》和《工具论·范畴篇》这两个中西思维的范本中窥见一斑。     

聊斋俚曲中的特殊疑问句式

文章对聊斋俚曲中的几个特殊疑问副词进行了探讨:一是认为疑问副词"难道"、"每哩"、"没哩"不表示反诘,而是表示测度,并考察了其历史渊源;二是对"可VP(么)"句式进行了具体分析,指出"可"具有测度、反诘、强调等三种语用功能。     

认知推理与深层回指中第三人称代词指代的确定

深层回指中第三人称代词指代的确定是一个复杂的、动态的认知心理过程,其指代的确认是读者运用认知结构中有关的语言知识、世界知识和语境知识进行认知推理的过程.     

Radiocarbon dating with temporal order constraints

Bayesian methods are now widely used for analysing radiocarbon dates. We find that the non-informative priors in use in the literature generate a bias towards wider date ranges which does not in general reflect substantial prior knowledge. We recommend using a prior in which the distribution of the difference between the earliest and latest dates has a uniform distribution. We show how such priors are derived from a simple physical model of the deposition and observation process. We illustrate this in a case-study, examining the effect that various priors have on the reconstructed dates. Bayes factors are used to help to decide model choice problems.