Dynamic stability: Unfolding dynamics of vicious cycles in a design firm

Paradoxes generate tensions and contradictions in organizations. In this paper, we contribute to the paradox literature by developing a complex systems approach to how organizational members experience tensions generated by the strategic intent paradox. Specifically, we focus on the unfolding dynamics of vicious cycles experienced by organizations dealing with paradox. Drawing on a case study of a design firm, we demonstrate how a vicious cycle forms through feedback loops and develops dynamic stability over time. On the basis of our findings, we develop a micro-level understanding of vicious cycles, which incorporates defence mechanisms at staff and senior management levels. Our main contribution is a theoretical model of unfolding dynamics of vicious cycles. Our model shows the importance of (1) feedback loops that underpin a vicious cycle and (2) importance of circular causality, reinforcing cycles, and micro-mechanisms in theorizing vicious cycles.     

A mixed methods evaluation of Multiple Mini Interviews for entry into the Bachelor of Midwifery

BackgroundMultiple-mini interviews (MMI) are increasingly used as part of the admission process into healthcare degrees. Evaluations have found MMIs to be a fair assessment tool in terms of reliability and validity and viewed positively by those involved in the MMI process. The use of MMIs in midwifery is novel and evaluation is lacking.AimTo evaluate the use of MMIs as part of the admission process for the Bachelor of Midwifery in one Australian university.MethodsA basic convergent mixed methods study design was utilised. Data included linked data sets, Likert scale responses to survey questions, focus groups and open-ended survey questions. Integration took place at the interpretation and reporting stage.FindingsParticipants viewed the MMI experience positively. The study confirmed the reliability of the MMIs as an assessment tool. Most variance in MMI scores was attributed to the candidate at 31.4 % with the interviewer and the interview station having less influence on the MMI score at 11 % and 6.4 % variance. Older applicants on average achieved higher MMI scores, and those who spoke a language other than English at home or were first in family to attend university had lower on average MMI scores. Being born overseas did not impact an applicant’s MMI score. The overall experience was seen as fair, offering further opportunity to gain entry into the Bachelor of Midwifery.ConclusionMMIs were viewed positively and findings support the use of MMIs as part of an admissions process for the Bachelor of Midwifery.     

Improved estimators of regression coefficients in measurement error models

This paper is concerned with methods of reducing variability and computer time in a simulation study. The Monte Carlo swindle, through mathematical manipulations, has been shown to yield more precise estimates than the “naive” approach. In this study computer time is considered in conjunction with the variance estimates. It is shown that by this measure the naive method is often a viable alternative to the swindle. This study concentrates on the problem of estimating the variance of an estimator of location. The advantage of one technique over another depends upon the location estimator, the sample size, and the underlying distribution. For a fixed number of samples, while the naive method gives a less precise estimate than the swindle, it requires fewer computations. In addition, for certain location estimators and distributions, the naive method is able to take advantage of certain shortcuts in the generation of each sample. The small amount of time required by this “enlightened” naive method often more than compensates for its relative lack of precision.     

The small sample properties of the reset test as applied to systems of equations

The RESET test for functional misspecification is generalised to cover systems of equations, and the properties of 7 versions are studied using Monte Carlo methods. The Rao F -test clearly exhibits the best performance as regards correct size, whilst the commonly used LRT (uncorrected for degrees-of-freedom), and LM and Wald tests (both corrected and uncorrected) behave badly even in single equations. The Rao test exhibits correct size even in ten equation systems, which is better than previous research concerning autocorrelation tests. The power of the test is low, however, when the number of equations grows and the correlation between the omitted variables and the RESET proxies is small.     

Pena's statistic for the Liu regression

In fitting regression model, one or more observations may have substantial effects on estimators. These unusual observations are precisely detected by a new diagnostic measure, Pena's statistic. In this article, we introduce a type of Pena's statistic for each point in Liu regression. Using the forecast change property, we simplify the Pena's statistic in a numerical sense. It is found that the simplified Pena's statistic behaves quite well as far as detection of influential observations is concerned. We express Pena's statistic in terms of the Liu leverages and residuals. The normality of this statistic is also discussed and it is demonstrated that it can identify a subset of high Liu leverage outliers. For numerical evaluation, simulated studies are given and a real data set has been analysed for illustration.     

Influence analysis based on the case sensitivity function

The case sensitivity function approach to influence analysis is introduced as a natural smooth extension of influence curve methodology in which both the insights of geometry and the power of (convex) analysis are available. In it, perturbation is defined as movement between probability vectors defining weighted empirical distributions. A Euclidean geometry is proposed giving such perturbations both size and direction. The notion of the salience of a perturbation is emphasized. This approach has several benefits. A general probability case weight analysis results. Answers to a number of outstanding questions follow directly. Rescaled versions of the three usual finite sample influence curve measures—seen now to be required for comparability across different-sized subsets of cases—are readily available. These new diagnostics directly measure the salience of the (infinitesimal) perturbations involved. Their essential unity, both within and between subsets, is evident geometrically. Finally it is shown how a relaxation strategy, in which a high dimensional ( O ( ⁿC_m )) discrete problem is replaced by a low dimensional ( O ( n )) continuous problem, can combine with (convex) optimization results to deliver better performance in challenging multiple-case influence problems. Further developments are briefly indicated.     

Estimating the case fatality rate using a constant cure-death hazard ratio

The case fatality rate is an important indicator of the severity of a disease, and unbiased and accurate estimates of it during an outbreak are important in the study of epidemic diseases, including severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). In this paper, estimation methods are developed using a constant cure-death hazard ratio. A semiparametric model is presented, in which the cure-death hazard ratio is a parameter of interest, and a profile likelihood-based technique is proposed for estimating the case fatality rate. An extensive simulation was carried out to investigate the performance of this technique for small and medium sample sizes, using both summary and individual data. The results show that the performance depends on the model validity but is not heavily dependent on the sample size. The method was applied to summary SARS data obtained from Hong Kong and Singapore.     

国际商法双语教学的实践与思考

国际商法是一门比较法课程,作为国际贸易和国际商务专业的核心课程,实施双语教学是十分必要的。然而国际商法内容体系庞杂,为双语教学的开展带来了不少的困难。国际商法双语教学要应以预先设立的双语教育目标为基准,充分利用各种教学资源,运用案例教学法,采用开卷的考查方式。     

Did send-down experience benefit youth? A reevaluation of the social consequences of forced urban–rural migration during China’s Cultural Revolution

During China’s Cultural Revolution, a large proportion of urban youth were forced to go to the countryside as a result of the state’s “send-down” policy. Past research has been ambivalent about the long-term social consequences for the Chinese youth who experienced send-down. Some scholars have suggested that the send-down experience may have yielded beneficial effects. To test this claim, we analyze data from the Survey of Family Life in Urban China, which we conducted in three large cities in 1999. Questions available in this data set allow us to ascertain the send-down experience of both the respondent and a sibling and educational attainment at the times of send-down and return. Our analyses of the new data show that the send-down experience does not seem to have benefited the affected Chinese youth. Differences in social outcomes between those who experienced send-down and those who did not are either non-existent or spurious due to other social processes.     

Individual strategies for coping with stress at work: A review

This paper discusses some of the conceptual and methodological issues involved in the study of coping. It focuses on individual coping with work and work-related problems, and adopts a transactional framework for the definition of the key concepts of stress, appraisal and coping. It identifies and reviews 17 recent papers which are representative of the coping literature, as defined by the scope of the paper. What it draws out of this review largely concerns issues of measurement, and four particular issues are flagged as important for future research. It concludes that there is a need for more and more adequate studies, particularly in relation to the classification and modelling of coping, and that the adequacy of those future studies should be partly judged in terms of how well they deal with the issues raised here.