重要数据跨境流动背景下风险路径的识别与分级

重要数据的跨境流动引发了数据安全、国家安全等风险挑战。风险路径的识别和分级是对重要数据跨境流动进行预警管理的重要内容。本文基于复杂网络中的二分网络模型,对重要数据的跨境流动进行研究。首先,通过重要数据跨境流动的二分网络和关联网络识别风险路径;其次,构建基于网络结构和接收节点属性的目标风险路径方法以计算其风险值;最后,对我国某重要行业跨境流动的数据开展实证分析,验证算法的有效性和精准度。本文旨在为重要数据跨境流动的预警管理提供量化方法,有效预防重要数据跨境流动带来的风险,提升我国数据治理能力。     

股市联动中的“涟漪效应”

本文提出"涟漪效应"来解释国际股市联动性的大幅波动。所谓涟漪效应就是中心市场特有波动对其它市场间联动性产生影响的现象。本文采用滚动窗口和DCC-GARCH的方法计算了市场特有波动和收益相关系数,以9个主要市场指数为样本对国际股票市场中涟漪效应进行实证检验。研究结果显示,2007年后国际股市联动性变化与美国市场的涟漪效应有关,美国市场特有波动升高（降低）会导致全球股市联动性升高（降低）,而其他市场特有波动并没有类似影响。美国市场与其他市场间联动性基本不受第三方市场特有波动的影响,A股与美股联动性的增强是造成A股与其它股市联动性变化的主要原因。此外,研究特有波动与相关系数的关系能帮助我们识别国际股市中风险传递方向,本文结果显示欧洲市场对其他市场的影响非常有限,以往研究可能高估了欧洲市场的影响力。本文丰富了股市联动性影响因素的研究,对理解市场联动性变化、评估市场影响力等问题有重要意义。     

产品类型差异下的消费者渠道偏好异质性 ———基于调节定向理论∗

产品类别是消费者行为研究的重要变量,消费者渠道偏好往往因为产品类别的不同而迥异。 消费者购买不同类型产品时的渠道偏好有何不同? 基于调节定向理论,引入产品实用享乐性与风险性,探 究消费者购买不同类型产品时的消费者渠道偏好差异。 围绕产品的实用享乐性、风险性与消费者渠道偏好 的调节定向匹配提出了 4 个假设,运用实验法采集数据,通过对样本数据的多项 Logistic 分析,对假设进行 了检验,并提出企业顾客管理建议,以期为企业根据产品类型区别建设渠道提供决策支持。     

问责-避责关系新解：基于“行动-制度-环境”框架

问责与避责间的关系是责任政治研究的重要议题,其中,问责导致避责的机制亟待探究。以X县早稻生产政策过程为例,基于“行动-制度-环境”的分析框架,探讨上级问责与基层避责之间的关系机制。研究发现：基层干部避责行为是上级问责制度与基层社会环境共同作用的结果,是作为责任者的基层干部面对上级问责压力和农民抗拒压力的理性选择。为贯彻落实非粮化整治政策,上级通过责任分配、责任考核和督查问责制度,给基层干部施加了巨大的早稻生产责任压力。而农民在长期的生产历史过程中已经形成了以中稻种植模式为主导的、较为稳定的生产秩序,拒不执行早稻生产政策。承受双重压力的基层干部只能采取责任兜底的属地化机制、利益交换的市场化机制和联合避责的科层化机制来规避上级问责风险。作为行动者的基层干部运用自由裁量权,通过隐匿信息、集体负债等方式,在一定程度上改变了既有的制度-环境,再造了基层治理结构。     

欧美合成生物学应用的风险治理经验及启示

合成生物学技术的应用与发展为基础生命科学研究、人类健康、环境保护和经济增长做出了重要贡献。随着合成生物学变得更便宜、更容易使用和更容易获得,亟需建立行之有效的风险治理体系以防控其潜在的伦理道德、生物安全和生物安保风险,促进技术健康发展。通过观照欧美国家风险治理模式,建议预防风险与促进创新并重、伦理治理与法律规制“双管齐下”,以期为我国合成生物学监管提供有益经验、减少风险和控制利益冲突,促进我国合成生物学创新,规范合成生物学研究和生产。     

The Seveso Directive: An Italian Pilot Study in Enabling Communication

In 1982 the Council of the European Communities issued a Directive on the Major Accident Hazards of Certain Industrial Activities, commonly known as the Seveso Directive. Besides other requirements, the Directive specifies that members of the public liable to be affected by a major accident from certain industrial activities must be informed of safety measures and how they should behave in the event of an accident. The Directive was subsequently amended in an extensive way. Upon the transposition of the Seveso Directive and its amendments into national legislations, the 12 European Member States are faced with the task of "appropriately and effectively" informing the public about major accident hazards. Delays are observed throughout the community, both in transposing the Directives and implementing public information. A pilot study on "Risk Information Needs" was commissioned and carried out at two Seveso sites in Italy in order to begin to resolve some of the problems involved in the provision of public information and to suggest appropriate guidelines. One hundred subjects answered an experimental protocol designed to assess their "information needs." This article presents the theoretical background, the pragmatic aims, and the design of the study. It also summarizes its most relevant findings and suggests some recommendations for the provision of information to the public.     

改革目标和企业风险度测定─—现代企业制度建设的关键

在建立现代企业制度的探索中,原有的“承包制”在实践中已暴露它的不足,与改革的深入不相适应。企业的生机在于竞争和风险。在商品经济条件下,企业经营实际上就是经营者运用创新手段,将受损风险转化为超额收获。而企业生产经营所存在的诸多不确定因素,可以通过概率论中的中心极限定理和经验,借鉴计划评审法（ＰＥＲＴ）中概率估算法对企业的经验风险度作出有价值的测定。     

Coherent decision analysis with inseparable probabilities and utilities

This article explores the extent to which a decision maker's probabilities can be measured separately from his/her utilities by observing his/her acceptance of small monetary gambles. Only a partial separation is achieved: the acceptable gambles are partitioned into a set of belief gambles, which reveals probabilities distorted by marginal utilities for money, and a set of preference gambles, which reveals utilities reciprocally distorted by marginal utilities for money. However, the information in these gambles still enables us to solve the decision maker's problem: his/her utility-maximizing decision is the one that avoids arbitrage (i.e., incoherence or Dutch books).     

De minimis and equity in risk

Indices and orderings are developed for evaluating alternative strategies in the management of risk. They reflect the goals of reducing individual and collective risks, of increasing equity, and of assigning priority to the reduction and to the equity of high risks. Individual risk is defined as the (random or non-random) level of exposure to a danger. In particular the role of a lower negligibility level is investigated. A class of indices is proposed which involves two parameters, a negligibility level and a parameter of inequality aversion, and several interpretations of the indices are discussed. We provide a set of eight axioms which are necessary and sufficient for this class of indices, and we present an approach to deal with partial information on the parameters.     

Tolerable or Acceptable: A Comparison of Risk Regulation in the United Kingdom and in the Netherlands

In managing major accident hazards in industry risk, both the United Kingdom and the Netherlands use quantitative risk analysis and quantified risk criteria. These should be understood in the historical, legal, and political context in which they were drawn up. Even when criteria are numerically the same they do not necessarily mean the same thing. The legal and historical context differs widely between the two countries. Nevertheless, it is surprising that the final results in terms of land use and levels of risk are very similar.