Frontier spaces of vulnerability: Regional change,urbanization, drought and fire hazard in Santarém,Pará, Brazil

Fire hazard is a mounting concern in tropical rainforests of the Brazilian Amazon and has raised awareness within the science community of the links between agricultural fire use, drought and accidental fire. As a result, fire is being addressed as a crisis event with mitigation focused on those who light fires, particularly smallholder agriculturalists. Little attention is paid to the historical and ongoing ways in which Amazon landscapes and peoples have been made more susceptible to fire. Frontier regions of the Brazilian Amazon serve a variety of functions within the larger Brazilian society, including as extractive reserves for economic development, as social safety valves to reduce population pressures, and as areas to support urban regional integration. Each of these functions has impacted frontier environments in ways that create more flammable landscapes and/or shape the vulnerability of people to fire hazard. This paper uses a case study inthe Brazilian Lower Amazon to understand how vulnerability to fire hazard develops. It argues that if fire mitigation remains centered on fire as a crisis event, an understanding of what constitutes frontier spaces of vulnerability, both in landscape and in populations, will be limited.     

Politics and Scientific Expertise: Scientists, Risk Perception, and Nuclear Waste Policy

To study the homogeneity and influences on scientists'perspectives of environmental risks, we have examined similarities and differences in risk perceptions, particularly regarding nuclear wastes, and policy preferences among 1011 scientists and engineers. We found significant differences ( p 0.05)in the patterns of beliefs among scientists from different fields of research. In contrast to physicists, chemists, and engineers, life scientists tend to: (a)perceive the greatest risks from nuclear energy and nuclear waste management; (b)perceive higher levels of overall environmental risk; (c)strongly oppose imposing risks on unconsenting individuals; and (d)prefer stronger requirements for environmental management. On some issues related to priorities among public problems and calls for government action, there are significant variations among life scientists or physical scientists. We also found that–independently of field of research–perceptions of risk and its correlates are significantly associated with the type of institution in which the scientist is employed. Scientists in universities or state and local governments tend to see the risks of nuclear energy and wastes as greater than scientists who work as business consultants, for federal organizations, or for private research laboratories. Significant differences also are found in priority given to environmental risks, the perceived proximity of environmental disaster, willingness to impose risks on an unconsenting population, and the necessity of accepting risks and sacrifices.     

The University: An Agent of Social Change?

Can universities be agents of progressive social change? How would we know if a university was acting as an agent of social change? Drawing on four case studies, I raise a number of questions to problematize our understanding of the university as an agent of social change. I outline a number of contributing factors that appear to explain successful cases. I conclude by arguing the relevancy of these cases for larger, and more traditional, sociological projects.     

图书馆工作人员应该转变的六个观念

文章认为,要使图书馆工作适应新的技术革命和社会主义市场经济的需要,就必须转变观念.当前需要转变的观念有以下六个方面:图书馆由藏书中心变成文献资料中心、信息中心、智力开发中心;从关门办馆到开门办馆;从无偿服务到有偿服务;从独自办馆到馆际协作;从手工操作到运用现代技术手段;从与世无争到积极竞争.     

隐逸词在南宋遗民词中的新变

元初南宋遗民词人是一个颇具特色的群体,南宋遗民词中的隐逸词是宋亡后士大夫心理与境遇的反映。南宋遗民词人的心奥,南宋遗民词中隐逸词的新特点,是在宋末元初那一特定历史时代的产物,是其时的特有文化现象。     

一曲美国南方没落贵族的挽歌--评威廉·福克纳的《喧嚣与骚动》

《喧嚣与骚动》是美国现代著名作家威廉·福克纳的惊世之作。在小说中 ,福克纳刻画了一幅美国旧南方贵族没落的图景 ,为没落的旧南方贵族弹奏了一曲凄凉的挽歌 ,深刻地揭示了美国旧南方的衰败。本文从不同的角度来体现小说深刻的思想主题及作品鲜明的艺术特色     

话题转换的顺应性研究

根据顺应理论,使用语言的过程是一个进行选择的过程,语言使用者不仅选择语言形式,同时还选择使用策略。话题转换现象是对社会规约和心理世界的一种顺应。话题转换不当,会产生负面影响,妨碍交际的进行。     

江苏高校科技服务的嬗变与反思

本文通过梳理江苏高校以科技服务社会的历史发展轨迹 ,总结了江苏高校科技服务社会四个发展特点与趋势 ,在此基础上 ,进一步思考如何提升江苏高校科技服务的质量 ,为江苏高校拓展科技服务的深度和广度提供有益的借鉴 ,推动江苏经济与社会的进步     

Estimation of Hazard, Density and Survivor Functions for Randomly Censored Data

Maximum likelihood estimation and goodness-of-fit techniques are used within a competing risks framework to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of hazard, density, and survivor functions for randomly right-censored variables. Goodness-of- fit techniques are used to fit distributions to the crude lifetimes, which are used to obtain an estimate of the hazard function, which, in turn, is used to construct the survivor and density functions of the net lifetime of the variable of interest. If only one of the crude lifetimes can be adequately characterized by a parametric model, then semi-parametric estimates may be obtained using a maximum likelihood estimate of one crude lifetime and the empirical distribution function of the other. Simulation studies show that the survivor function estimates from crude lifetimes compare favourably with those given by the product-limit estimator when crude lifetimes are chosen correctly. Other advantages are discussed.     

Alternative boundaries for CUSUM tests

Alternative boundaries for the common Recursive (or Standard) CUSUM test and the OLS-based CUSUM test for structural change are suggested and their properties are examined by simulation of expectedp values. The poor power of the tests for early and late structural changes can be improved for the OLS-based version, whereas this weakness of the Recursive CUSUM test cannot be overcome by the new boundaries. Research supported by the Austrian Science Foundation (FWF) under grant SFB#010 (‘Adaptive Information Systems and Modeling in Economics and Management Science’).