人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应--论中国增长可持续性的人口因素

人口转变是挑战中国经济持续增长的一个重要因素.在这个过程中,个人的生命周期和代际更替之间的相互叠加,通过劳动供给、储蓄和科技进步等渠道对长期经济增长施加影响.本文分析表明,人口转变使得中国从20世纪60年代中期开始享受人口红利,并一直持续到2015年前后.为了迎接人口老龄化冲击,中国需要通过扩大就业、加快人力资本积累和建立适合于中国国情的可持续的养老保障模式三条途径来充分挖掘未来潜在的人口红利,推动中国经济持续增长.     

The Cash Opportunity Costs of Childbearing: An Approach To Estimation Using British Data

The opportunity costs of rearing British children in terms of cash earnings foregone by their mother are estimated for a typical family. Data from the Women and Employment Survey (1980) provide estimates for hourly pay as a function of work experience and current hours of work. They also make possible the generation of participation and hours profiles for representative women with different numbers of children, which, together with the earnings function are used to simulate lifetime income. Earnings foregone as a result of bearing and rearing two children are roughly equally composed of three effects, on participation, hours and pay. They exceed direct costs, and do not rise proportionally with family size. They are sensitive to the spacing of births but not, undiscounted, to the timing of the first one. The method and results contrast markedly with those of a similarly motivated study of US women, by Calhoun and Espenshade. It is argued that the non-linearity of the earnings function and state dependence in British labour force transitions would violate the assumptions which permitted the US exercise to be based on a multi-state labour force life-table.     

The value of a firm’s engagement in ESG practices: Are we looking at the right side?

Firms allocate many resources to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues and to growth options as if they were independent sources of value. Challenging this view, this paper explores the interplay of a firm's engagement in ESG practices and growth options in determining its total value. We draw upon real options reasoning to explain how ESG practices can carry two opposite (trust-enhancing and risk-reducing) forces, driving an inverted U-form relationship between ESG performance and growth options value. Moreover, we argue that ESG performance and growth options are likely to build substitutive insurance mechanisms which might exert a negative moderating effect of growth options on the relationship between ESG performance and a firm's total value. Empirical analyses of ESG scores and growth options values on a panel of U.S. firms from 2009 to 2018 provide substantial support for our hypotheses. Our results show that the inverted U-form relationship between ESG performance and growth options value becomes stronger for the environmental and social pillars. Our evidence on the moderating effect of growth option values also provides valuable insights for interpreting prior conflicting empirical evidence on the association between ESG performance and a firm's total value.     

中廓战争对马戛尔尼使华的影响

近代边疆危机与中国的近代化息息相关。1792年,英国政府为了扭转对华贸易逆差不断扩大的窘状,派出负有使中英贸易正常化使命的谈判代表马戛尔尼,但东印度公司在刚结束的中廓战争中的均势政策影响了清政府对马戛尔尼使团的态度,固守传统理念的乾隆皇帝拒绝了英国政府提出的开埠通商、贸易自由化的提议。马戛尔尼使团在中国遭遇了挫折。     

上海"十一五"时期促进消费增长问题探讨

上海“十五”时期存在着最终消费率较低以及消费差距逐步扩大等问题。上海“十一五”时期为促进消费增长,有必要通过转变经济增长方式,平衡投资消费关系,重点提升居民消费,着力提升即期消费与中低收入者消费,不断提高居民收入水平与缓解收入分配差距,切实降低预防性储蓄,进一步发展服务业提高服务业消费,积极培育消费热点,努力促进消费结构升级,有效发挥社会主义新农村新郊区促进农村消费增长与拉动城市消费的重大作用,不断构建良好的消费环境与促进消费的可持续发展。     

农业企业“公司+农户”的生产经营模式创新

农业企业通常采取＂公司＋农户＂的经营模式在农村设立种植基地,实施规模化生产,以此获取超额经济效益。但是,农业企业面临的生产经营困难与加工制造型企业相比存在显著差异,如土地规模庞大、种植季节性、非全职农户、开放式生产等因素都会阻碍规模化种植的发展进程。因此,农业企业需要根据当地农村情境进行适应性的生产经营模式创新,才能摆脱＂公司＋农户＂的运行困境。通过案例研究发现,农业企业对已流转土地实施＂再承包＂的模式创新可以充分调动农户的种植积极性,有效防止其＂搭便车＂行为,提高要素间的配置效率,增强＂公司＋农户＂经营模式的稳定性。     

努力探索私营企业党建工作的路子--对昆明诺仕达集团公司党建工作的调查与思考

非公有制经济是中国社会主义市场经济的重要组成部分 ,非公从业人员是中国特色社会主义事业的建设者。在非公有制企业建立党组织 ,不仅有利于加强党对非公企业的领导 ,扩大党的群众基础和社会基础 ,而且有利于推动非公有制经济进一步健康发展 ,促进全面小康社会建设。昆明诺仕达集团企业党组织建设的经验证明了这一点     

试论舒尔茨乐观的经济增长理论--兼与靳文志商榷

舒尔茨乐观的经济增长理论是工业社会和后工业社会的产物.其理论支柱是土地在增长中的作用下降;人的时间价值的增长.舒尔茨克服了李嘉图和马尔萨斯忽视科学技术的缺陷,准确地揭示了后工业社会经济增长的源泉.舒尔茨政策主张的主要内容是人力资本投资和重视科学研究,这意味着发展中国家有跳跃式发展的可能性.     

浅析鸦片战争前的英国远东贸易

英国早期在印度的殖民统治和经济掠夺遇到了困难;同时在与中国发生的贸易关系中处于不利地位,承受着巨额贸易逆差。通过英国与印度;英国与中国;印度与中国在鸦片战争前贸易关系的比较分析,可以看出在英国东印度公司的活动下,英属印度对华贸易加大,利用原棉和鸦片吸收了中国大量的资金,形成了英、印、中三角贸易,彻底解决了英国在印度和中国进行经济入侵的主要难题。     

人力资本补偿缺失与企业家成长--对长虹、九洲、双马、东材等国有企业改制方案的反思

在现代企业中,企业家的地位应该处于企业运行的核心位置。实施企业家人力资本补偿和激励的MBO应该成为中国产生本土企业家的基本途径,其成功实施需要体现多个视角和多方利益的统一。长虹换帅风波凸显企业家人力资本补偿的缺失。