“两伊问题”困扰中的美国海湾战略选择

伊战后,美国的海湾战略屡屡受挫,在中东面临危机多元化和扩散化的严重挑战。在伊拉克陷阱和伊朗核问题的双重困扰下,小布什政府及其后任可能的战略选择包括坚持原有“主导和预防行动”、采取“崩溃预防型”、恢复“稳定、威慑和遏制”、考虑“合作型秩序”等。但除非美国放弃独家主导海湾的霸权战略并调整其战略目标,否则难以在“支配”海湾地区和摆脱困境之间找到两全出路。     

A LOWER BOUND FOR THE SINGLE-LEVEL DYNAMIC HORIZON LOT-SIZING PROBLEM

Conventional production planning methods assume the existence of a medium- or longrange demand horizon. However, demand usually is known over a much shorter range; scheduling decisions must be made within this “decision window,” which rolls forward in time. This paper presents a new lower bound for lot-sizing heuristics in a rolling-horizon framework and compares it to the well-known Wagner-Whitin bound. The new bound indicates heuristic schedules that have costs close to the optimum. Rolling-horizon schedule costs are compared to corresponding static-horizon schedule costs (assuming the whole horizon is known in advance), using the ratio of decision-window size to the natural order cycle as a parameter. For values below unity, the rolling-horizon policy is significantly more costly. For values above one, the two policies have similar costs and actually converge as the parameter value increases.     

STOCHASTIC COST-VOLUME-PROFIT ANALYSIS IN A COMPETITIVE OLIGOPOLY

Previous stochastic cost-volume-profit (CVP) models have assumed that the firm was operating under either perfect competition or monopolistic conditions. This paper presents a stochastic CVP model applicable to oligopolistic competition. Each firm is assumed to maximize a linear function of the expected value and the standard deviation of its random profits. The result is a game-theoretic model that is solved using the concept of a Nash equilibrium. The results of the model are used to examine a firm's competitive strength. The model can be easily modified to accommodate a measure of risk based on the capital asset pricing theory.     

ASSESSING ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING AT THE SUBUNIT LEVEL: A MULTITRAIT-MULTIMETHOD ANALYSIS*

Environmental scanning activities of over 400 top management subunits in 108 European manufacturing firms provided the data base for this research. Four traits (constructs) of scanning using three methods (interest, frequency, and time) were examined. A confirmatory factor analysis approach to multitrait-multimethod (MTMM) data was employed. Verification of the reliability as well as convergent and discriminant validity of the scanning scales are reported and discussed. The viability of confirmatory factor analysis in providing a precise analysis of partitioning variance according to trait, method, and error is demonstrated.     

DEVIL'S ADVOCACY AND DIALECTICAL INQUIRY EFFECTS ON PREDICTION PERFORMANCE: TASK INVOLVEMENT AS A MEDIATING VARIABLE

Critics of previous laboratory experiments comparing devil's advocacy (DA) to dialectical inquiry (DI) have suggested that these experiments produced misleading results because (1) they used subjects who had low levels of task involvement and (2) the DI treatment used was confusing to subjects and required further explanation to be useful. The present study examines the effects of four inquiry methods—expert (E), DA, DI, and DI with explanatory statement (DI+)—on subjects' performance at a financial prediction task. Results show that DA, DI, and DI + were superior to E when the state of the world differed significantly from assumptions underlying the expert's plan. For subjects with high task involvement, DI and DI + were more effective than E and DA. The results support some of the criticisms of previous laboratory research and suggest that future research on these decision aids should include task involvement as a factor.     

A framework to study strategizing activities at the field level: The example of CSR rating agencies

This paper responds to recent calls to bridge strategy and organization research by combining Strategy-as-Practice and Neo-Institutional Theory through re-theorizing the notion of strategic actor. We problematize the notion of strategic actor at the field level, and rely on insights from management and organization studies and sociology to advance a theoretical framework that conceptualizes organizations as social actors at the field level. We demonstrate our theoretical framework by drawing on corporate social responsibility rating agencies. We see corporate social responsibility rating agencies as supra-individual, social actors that are predisposed to assume an active role in defining and revisiting structural parameters within the society through their purposeful, meaningful actions and interactions. Our main contribution is to the development of the Strategy-as-Practice literature, achieved by re-theorizing the notion of strategic actor at the field level. This contribution responds to the micro-isolationism critique, and proposes a new focus for Strategy-as Practice research.     

河南城镇化进程中的犯罪问题研究

河南省城镇化实施中心城市带动战略,对犯罪形势变化将产生深刻的影响:犯罪率将呈现先升后降最终稳定的态势;流动人口犯罪、青少年犯罪、女性犯罪、职务犯罪等将会激增;各种类型犯罪在短期内都会大量增加;一些社会管理控制相对薄弱的"边缘地带"有可能成为犯罪孳生地。河南省应实行综合治理的犯罪防控战略。     

中国企业经营国际化策略探析

本文从认识国际化的现状到分析国际化的未来发展及趋势,着重分析了中国在国际化的这条道路上已开创了怎样的一个局面和国际化策略在未来中国的发展中面临的问题及其解决方法。认为,中国政府应采用适当的倾斜政策,重点扶持一批优势行业和“龙头企业”,使它们能率先具备国际竞争的实力,制定并实施跨国公司战略,同时,中国企业在国际化经营中要放弃急功近利的思想。     

Manufacturing Proactiveness and Performance*

Since Skinner's [40] landmark article depicting the manufacturing function as the “missing link” in corporate strategic processes, a portion of the blame for inferior performance in many firms has been attributed to the subordinate strategic position of manufacturing. It has been argued that part of the solution to misalignments between the capabilities possessed by manufacturing and the requirements dictated by customers is for manufacturing to take a more proactive stance. However, little research has been reported which examines manufacturing proactiveness empirically. In this paper, we address this gap by developing an operational definition of manufacturing proactiveness and testing empirically whether a link exists between proactiveness and performance based on data collected from a sample of manufacturers. Based on the manufacturing strategy literature, we identify two major dimensions of manufacturing proactiveness: (1) the degree of manufacturing's involvement in the strategic processes of the business unit; and (2) the degree of commitment to a long-term program of investments in manufacturing structure and infrastructure aimed at building capabilities in anticipation of their need. We develop reliable scales for measuring each of the dimensions of proactiveness and use the data to provide evidence of a clear link between manufacturing proactiveness and business performance. We show that investments in structural programs coupled with either high levels of manufacturing involvement in strategic processes or planned investments in infrastructural programs correlate with higher than average performance.     

朝鲜战争中美国决策的特点

1950年———1953年的朝鲜战争是中国与美国两个大国在各自境外进行的一场大规模的局部战争。美国作为战后的超级大国,具有称霸世界的野心和实力,但同时又要面对与苏联的对抗。这场战争中,从美国决策的角度其中一个突出的特点是美国从始至终都站在全球与苏联对抗的高度和角度对战争进行判断,战争决策中都贯穿着美国冷战的宏观战略指导思想,即遏制苏联,中心在欧洲,不能在东亚耗费过多国力。本文从美国对朝鲜战争性质的界定以及在战争过程中的决策两方面来对此特点进行论证。