传统外贸贡献计算方法的反思及改进

传统的外贸贡献计算方法割裂了各经济变量之间的联系，没有充分考虑出口对国内消费和投资的影响，因而，这一方法存在低估外贸对我国经济增长的作用的倾向，有鉴于此，章在充分考虑各经济变量之间的内在联系的基础上，构建一个联立方程组以重新估算外贸对我国经济增长的贡献程度。     

SEPARATION, WEAK EXOGENEITY, AND P-T DECOMPOSITION IN COINTEGRATED VAR SYSTEMS WITH COMMON FEATURES

The aim of this paper is to study the concept of separability in multiple nonstationary time series displaying both common stochastic trends and common stochastic cycles. When modeling the dynamics of multiple time series for a panel of several entities such as countries, sectors, firms, imposing some form of separability and commonalities is often required to restrict the dimension of the parameter space. For this purpose we introduce the concept of common feature separation and investigate the relationships between separation in cointegration and separation in serial correlation common features. Loosely speaking we investigate whether a set of time series can be partitioned into subsets such that there are serial correlation common features within the sub-groups only. The paper investigates three issues. First, it provides conditions for separating joint cointegrating vectors into marginal cointegrating vectors as well as separating joint short-term dynamics into marginal short-term dynamics. Second, conditions for making permanent-transitory decompositions based on marginal systems are given. Third, issues of weak exogeneity are considered. Likelihood ratio type tests for the different hypotheses under study are proposed. An empirical analysis of the link between economic fluctuations in the United States and Canada shows the practical relevance of the approach proposed in this paper.     

山西农户消费结构分析

采用纵向与横向相结合的研究方法 ,分析了山西农户消费结构。认为山西农户消费结构基本上还处于以满足基本要求为主的生存性消费阶段 ,开始由低级消费结构向中级消费结构过渡。因此需要采取相应措施 ,以促进山西农户消费结构的升级     

浅析近代上海摊贩存在和发展的历史条件

近代上海摊贩人数众多,行业分布广泛。作为一种古老的商品交易形式,摊贩之所以能在号称国际化大都市的近代上海继续存在和发展决非偶然,首先,城市人口的增多和市民消费水平的多层次化为摊贩的存在和发展提供了条件。其次,城乡二元经济结构的不断强化,加速了农村自然经济的解体和摊贩队伍的扩大。第三,开埠以后"重商主义"价值观念的驱使,也是近代摊贩不断发展的一个主观原因。     

The Farmhouse Joy (nongjiale) Movement in China's Ethnic Minority Villages

In China, establishments known as ‘Farmhouse Joy restaurants’ (nongjiale) which originally emerged around the suburbs of big cities and were associated with the foodstuffs of ethnic majority Han Chinese farmers, have now, as a result of a variety of development projects and local initiatives, emerged in ethnic minority and other remote villages located deep in the mountains. Based on ethnographic fieldwork in villages in Hubei and Yunnan provinces, this study examines how a new conception of ‘original ecology’ has played a dynamic role in the transformation of these nongjiale in ethnic and remote areas. This transformation results from a new symbolic synthesis and rapprochement between what are commonly understood to be ‘farmers' foods’, desires to experience an original ecology and understandings of ethnicity in China, a synthetic construction clearly aimed at attracting urbanite consumption. Important differences have emerged between villages participating in this process of synthesis. Those villages with strong claims to ethnic minority status have to carefully convert what are in fact ethnic foods into what are seen as ethnically unmarked ‘farmers' foods' in their nongjiale, while villages without such ethnic backgrounds paradoxically have to construct artificial ethnic symbols by mechanisms of imitation or pretence.     

西部民族自治地区人口年龄结构变化对居民消费的影响研究——基于动态面板数据模型的实证分析

本文以生命周期假说为基础,运用动态面板数据GMM估计方法,对我国西部民族自治地区人15／年龄结构与居民消费的关系进行了实证考察。发现老年抚养系数和少儿抚养系数均与居民消费率显著正相关。结果还发现这些地区居民消费习惯较为稳定。控制了影响居民消费的其他因素后,本文的结果基本稳健。     

论《夜色温柔》中的消费场景

菲茨杰拉德小说中消费主人公和物之间的关系表现在,物的价值已不再取决于其本身能否满足人的需求或具有使用价值,而是取决于作为交换体系中消费者的身份符号的价值。而《夜色温柔》的消费场景中人与人之间的关系表现在：一方面,社会低阶层成员被“物化”,成为高一阶层消费者购买、甚至浪费的商品;另一方面,社会高阶层成员的消费选择往往成为努力获得“晋升符号”以向高级阶层靠拢的社会低阶层成员效仿的对象。总而言之,《夜色温柔》中的主要人物都陷于消费陷阱中,陷入对物的符号价值的永无止境的追求中,而丧失了有意义有价值的生活;也正是在此意义上,我们可以说,菲茨杰拉德的《夜色温柔》展现的是现代消费社会的主要病理症状。     

基于心理账户的习惯形成

本文将心理学中心理账户的概念引入习惯形成理论,将心理账户分为日常消费账户和一次性大额消费账户。假设中国城镇居民的消费特征是在保持日常生活消费支出平稳增长的前提下,将收入中扣除日常消费支出的部分储蓄起来,以应付各种一次性大额消费支出。理论模型和经验研究表明：中国城镇居民一次性大额消费表现出耐久性和奢侈品消费特征,从理论上回答了为什么收入的上升有助于启动热点消费。同时,这一研究结论可以为近年来汽车消费的快速增长等经济现象提供一个理论解释。     

消费环境对我国农村居民消费影响的实证分析

本文以1983－2009年消费环境和农村居民消费的相关统计数据为样本,使用VEC模型就消费环境对农村居民消费水平的影响进行冲击响应、方差分解分析,考察了消费环境与农村居民消费水平的动态特征关系。实证结果表明：文化水平、医疗卫生条件、基础设施投资、自然条件与农村居民消费水平之间呈现稳定的协整关系,其中,文化水平、基础设施投资对农村居民消费水平的冲击有明显的效果,并且持续时期长,对农村居民消费水平的提高有显著作用。     

我国居民消费季节调整和节日效应测算

Bayes季节调整方法因有坚实的理论基础,调整效果优于其它方法等,目前正日益受到广泛的重视与应用。本文将Bayes季节调整模型引入国内,同时在模型中补充贸易日和闰年的影响。用R软件的Timsac包中的Bayesian程序实现对社会消费品零售额的季节调整和环比增长率测算,表明长期我国社会消费品零售总额具有稳定的指数增长趋势和U型季节特征,得到的月环比增长率反应灵敏。通过季节指数抛物线拟合,得到“五一”和“十一”节日经济效应和比例。总体上“五一”的节日效应显著,“十一”仍有正面效应,但影响不显著。