Effects of Risk Representation and Scope on Willingness to Pay for Reduced Risks: Evidence from Tokyo Bay, Japan

When applying the contingent valuation method (CVM) in risk reduction studies, some studies report that willingness to pay (WTP) is insensitive to the magnitude of risk reduction while other studies do not. On the other hand, social-psychological research has shown that the affect heuristic biases judgments on probability, relative frequency, and risk. This article examines both magnitude (or scope) effect and affect heuristic (or representation) effect on WTP for risk reduction measures against tsunamis by introducing two experimental (i.e., absolute and relative) systems with four different representations to evaluate public behaviors in two different scenarios of risk reduction. Two common denominators (100 and 10,000) are introduced into absolute risk reduction representation (i.e., "of every 100 persons, from present 2 deaths to 1") to form different formats (i.e., "of every 10,000 persons from 200 to 100," and "of every 100,000 persons from 2,000 deaths to 1,000"). There is little evidence that WTP estimates are sufficiently sensitive to the magnitude of risk reduction, but relative risk reduction representations may be better than the absolute one given in CVM mail surveys when the risk is small. There is a statistically insignificant effect of risk reduction representations on respondent frequency, but mixed effects on the monetary values of WTP at the level of 0.05. The representation effect of absolute risk reduction on the WTP value varies with the common denominator. The larger the common denominator, the less the WTP to reduce the risk of tsunamis, and the significance probability is improved to less than the level of 0.05 when the common denominator becomes large enough. The findings suggest that improved methods are required for estimating the rates of tradeoff between fatality risk and other goods among consumers.     

中国地方政府债务的结构性风险

在或有债务不确定触发地方政府代偿的现实背景下,本文对地方政府显性债务和或有债务的结构性风险进行了模型刻画,给出了两类债务违约概率的显示解及其估计方法。基于地方政府报告的显性债务和审计署的有关公告等,本文对地方政府的显性债务和或有债务规模进行了结构性分解和估算,多视角估计了不同久期（或平均债务到期时间）下的两类债务的结构性风险状态,同时对比分析了其变动趋势。模型估计表明：地方政府债务风险的主要形态是或有债务的不确定触发,在部分时段内,地方政府的结构性代偿压力明显较大,但债券置换等旨在拉长债务久期的政策设计有助于缓释地方政府债务的信用风险边界,降低地方政府的结构性代偿压力。本文用具体数字揭示了地方政府债务的结构性风险状况及其变动趋势,以及地方政府债务久期之伸缩与其代偿压力之间的定量关系。     

A Hedonic Price Function for a Northern BC Community

In this paper a hedonic price function forPrince George, a northern British Columbiacommunity, is estimated. In light of the lackof consensus regarding appropriate functionalform of a hedonic price function, a linearmodel is estimated and a battery of diagnostictests of model adequacy is performed. Twoestimation procedures are used, namely,ordinary least squares (OLS) and Least AbsoluteDeviation (LAD). The estimation results areused to form appropriate valuations ofcharacteristics of residential houses in PrinceGeorge.     

红色旅游效应评价体系研究——以南昌为例

在分析红色旅游功能特性及各种旅游效应评价方法的基础上,结合德尔菲法和层次分析法,探讨并初步构建了定性与定量相结合的红色旅游效应评价体系,并选取南昌为调研地,采用调查问卷和访谈的方法,运用SPSS和Yaahp软件,对评价体系进行了实证研究,得到了与南昌红色旅游效应实际情况基本吻合的结果,证明了这一评价体系的科学性和可行性.     

国有林权制度改革绩效评价指标体系构建

对国有林权制度改革试点工作的绩效进行评价,是进一步推进国有林权制度改革的关键和核心。而要对试点工作的绩效进行评价,首先就要对此次林改的绩效进行明确的界定,并根据其特点,构建针对此次林改政策目的的绩效评价指标体系。     

价值判断方法在近代民法向现代民法转变中的作用

价值判断方法引导了民法基本价值从近代民法＂安定性＂向现代民法的＂妥当性＂转变。价值判断方法以两种方式发挥引导作用：其一是作为法学通用方法引导立法的价值取向;其二是作为独立的民法解释方法在法的适用领域发挥价值再判断和价值修正的作用。两种方式上的价值判断方法合力推动民法现代化进程中的价值取向改变,实现了近代民法向现代民法的转变。     

Conditional payments and self-protection

Self-protection can be financed either by upfront payments or by conditional payments (or contingent fees) in which individuals pay a provider only when a favorable outcome is realized. We find that, from the vantage point of a risk-averse individual, conditional payments welfare dominate upfront payments in the state-independent framework, but upfront payments welfare dominate conditional payments in the state-dependent framework. Moreover, more risk aversion always implies more self-protection under conditional payments, for both state-independent and state-dependent frameworks. In contrast, it has been previously argued that more risk aversion does not necessarily imply more self-protection under upfront payments.

每股收益和每股净资产的投资决策有用性——基于"费森-奥尔森估值模型"的实证研究

本文基于费森—奥尔森估值模型对中国A股市场股价的主要解释因素进行分析,力图在文中解释是何种会计指标成为股价的主要解释变量进而考察了会计信息的投资决策有用性。文中主要研究了每股收益和每股净资产对股价解释能力的程度。本文实证结果发现:2002年以后,我国资本市场存在账面净资产对股价的解释能力逐年增强的现象,且是股价的主要解释力量,解释能力优于会计盈余;账面净资产、会计盈余二者联合对股价的解释能力呈现波动性增强趋势:同时否定了会计盈余单因素对公司股价解释能力逐年增强的假设。     

利用财务会计信息对公司权益进行估价的模型

公司权益估价作为一个多学科交叉的会计学新兴研究领域,在西方已形成一定的理论体系。本文对近年来在相关文献中频繁出现的剩余收益估价模型(RIM)的相关假设、一般形式及各种变形进行框架性的理论论述,以期为在我国进行类似的实证研究做一铺垫。     

高校学生审美素质自我发展期望与评价的比较

本研究对 32 66名高校学生进行审美素质自我期望与自我发展评价问卷调查。结果表明 :总体上看 ,高校学生审美素质期望与实际发展都很低 ,二者之间呈极显著的正相关 ;各年级学生审美素质期望与实际发展随年级增长呈下降趋势 ;各类学校学生审美素质期望与实际发展存在差异 ,师范和综合类学校的学生审美素质期望和实际发展均高于其它各类学校 ,理工类学生的审美素质期望和实际发展相对来说最低。