An Improved Test for Continuous Local Martingales

We present a new test for the “continuous martingale hypothesis”. That is, a test for the hypothesis that observed data are from a process which is a continuous local martingale. The basis of the test is an embedded random walk at first passage times, obtained from the well-known representation of a continuous local martingale as a continuous time-change of Brownian motion. With a variety of simulated diffusion processes our new test shows higher power than existing tests using either the crossing tree or the quadratic variation, including the situation where non-negligible drift is present. The power of the test in the presence of jumps is also explored with a variety of simulated jump diffusion processes. The test is also applied to two sequences of high-frequency foreign exchange trade-by-trade data. In both cases the continuous martingale hypothesis is rejected at times less than hourly and we identify significant dependence in price movements at these small scales.     

Empirical likelihood inference for a semiparametric hazards regression model

ABSTRACT

We investigated the empirical likelihood inference approach under a general class of semiparametric hazards regression models with survival data subject to right-censoring. An empirical likelihood ratio for the full 2p regression parameters involved in the model is obtained. We showed that it converged weakly to a random variable which could be written as a weighted sum of 2p independent chi-squared variables with one degree of freedom. Using this, we could construct a confidence region for parameters. We also suggested an adjusted version for the preceding statistic, whose limit followed a standard chi-squared distribution with 2p degrees of freedom.     

Approximations of the critical region of the fbietkan statistic

The Friedman (1937) test for the randomized complete block design is used to test the hypothesis of no treatment effect among k treatments with b blocks. Difficulty in determination of the size of the critical region for this hypothesis is com¬pounded by the facts that (1) the most recent extension of exact tables for the distribution of the test statistic by Odeh (1977) go up only to the case with k6 and b6, and (2) the usual chi-square approximation is grossly inaccurate for most commonly used combinations of (k,b). The purpose of this paper 2 is to compare two new approximations with the usual x² and F large sample approximations. This work represents an extension to the two-way layout of work done earlier by the authors for the one-way Kruskal-Wallis test statistic.     

An approximation of the inverse moments of the positive hypergeometric distribution

The negative moments of the positive hyper geometric distribution are often approximated by the inverse of the positive moments of this distribution. In this paper, a suitable approximation to the positive hypergeometric distribution is used to obtain the negative moments.     

A modal method for generating binomial variables

The paper considers the problem of generating binomial random variables when the parameters n and p may vary from call to call (as in the generation of multinomial random variables), A new algorithm, based on sequentially searching alternately down and up from the modal probability, is introduced. This is easy to program and requires no special library facilities It is suitable for microcomputers as well as mainframes Some sample timings are given for a FORTRAN 7 7 implementation     

An asymptotic expression for cumulative sum of probabilities of the hermite distribution

An asymptotic approximation of cumulative sum F(s) of probabilities of the Hermite distribution (Kemp C. D. and Kemp A. W. (1965)) and an asymptotic approximation of individual Hemite Probability P_s are given for large s.     

An approximation for analyzing a broad class of implicitly and explicitly defined estimators

An approximation is presented that can be used to gain insight into the characteristics – such as outlier sensitivity, bias, and variability – of a wide class of estimators, including maximum likelihood and least squares. The approximation relies on a convenient form for an arbitrary order Taylor expansion in a multivariate setting. The implicit function theorem can be used to construct the expansion when the estimator is not defined in closed form. We present several finite-sample and asymptotic properties of such Taylor expansions, which are useful in characterizing the difference between the estimator and the expansion.     

Bayesian credibility limits for small finite population proportions:stratified and cluster sampling

Bayes credibility limits for small proportions from stratified and fixed size cluster samples are discussed. Ericson’s (JRSS B (1969)) Beta Binomial and Dirichlet-Multinomial priors are used. Approximate limits that are appropriate for large samples and small proportions are derived in both cases. These allow asymptotic comparisons of the efficacy of stratified and cluster sampling relative to simple random sampling for estimating small proportions. Procedures for the selection of hyper parameters are also presented.