COVARIANCE MODELS FOR LATTICE DATA

Given observations on an m × n lattice, approximate maximum likelihood estimates are derived for a family of models including direct covariance, spatial moving average, conditional autoregressive and simultaneous autoregressive models. The approach involves expressing the (approximate) covariance matrix of the observed variables in terms of a linear combination of neighbour relationship matrices, raised to a power. The structure is such that the eigenvectors of the covariance matrix are independent of the parameters of interest. This result leads to a simple Fisher scoring type algorithm for estimating the parameters. The ideas are illustrated by fitting models to some remotely sensed data.     

Likelihood analysis for a class of beta mixed models

Beta regression is a suitable choice for modelling continuous response variables taking values on the unit interval. Data structures such as hierarchical, repeated measures and longitudinal typically induce extra variability and/or dependence and can be accounted for by the inclusion of random effects. In this sense, Statistical inference typically requires numerical methods, possibly combined with sampling algorithms. A class of Beta mixed models is adopted for the analysis of two real problems with grouped data structures. We focus on likelihood inference and describe the implemented algorithms. The first is a study on the life quality index of industry workers with data collected according to an hierarchical sampling scheme. The second is a study assessing the impact of hydroelectric power plants upon measures of water quality indexes up, downstream and at the reservoirs of the dammed rivers, with a nested and longitudinal data structure. Results from different algorithms are reported for comparison including from data-cloning, an alternative to numerical approximations which also allows assessing identifiability. Confidence intervals based on profiled likelihoods are compared with those obtained by asymptotic quadratic approximations, showing relevant differences for parameters related to the random effects. In both cases, the scientific hypothesis of interest was investigated by comparing alternative models, leading to relevant interpretations of the results within each context.     

Approximating moments of continuous functions of random variables using Bernstein polynomials

Bernstein polynomials have many interesting properties. In statistics, they were mainly used to estimate density functions and regression relationships. The main objective of this paper is to promote further use of Bernstein polynomials in statistics. This includes (1) providing a high-level approximation of the moments of a continuous function $g\left(X\right)$ of a random variable $X$, and (2) proving Jensen’s inequality concerning a convex function without requiring second differentiability of the function. The approximation in (1) is demonstrated to be quite superior to the delta method, which is used to approximate the variance of $g\left(X\right)$ with the added assumption of differentiability of the function. Two numerical examples are given to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology in (1).     

抗战时期国共两党持久抗日战略方针之比较

抗日战争时期 ,共产党的抗日战略方针是“持久战” ,国民党的抗日战略方针并非通常所认为的“速胜论” ,而是“持久战” ,或叫“持久消耗”。两种抗日战略方针虽有某些相同相似之处 ,但也有许多不同。两者相比 ,国民党的抗日战略方针在许多方面都显得逊色 ,从而更显出毛泽东持久战理论的重大贡献     

Approximating M/G/1 Waiting Time Tail Probabilities

Abstract

We propose a new approximation formula for the waiting time tail probability of the M/G/1 queue with FIFO discipline and unlimited waiting space. The aim is to address the difficulty of obtaining good estimates when the tail probability has non-exponential asymptotics. We show that the waiting time tail probability can be expressed in terms of the waiting time tail probability of a notional M/G/1 queue with truncated service time distribution plus the tail probability of an extreme order statistic. The Cramér–Lundberg approximation is applied to approximate the tail probability of the notional queue. In essence, our technique extends the applicability of the Cramér–Lundberg approximation to cases where the standard Lundberg condition does not hold. We propose a simple moment-based technique for estimating the parameters of the approximation; numerical results demonstrate that our approximation can yield very good estimates over the whole range of the argument.     

Saddlepoint-Based Bootstrap Inference for Quadratic Estimating Equations

Abstract.  We propose an easy to implement method for making small sample parametric inference about the root of an estimating equation expressible as a quadratic form in normal random variables. It is based on saddlepoint approximations to the distribution of the estimating equation whose unique root is a parameter's maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), while substituting conditional MLEs for the remaining (nuisance) parameters. Monotoncity of the estimating equation in its parameter argument enables us to relate these approximations to those for the estimator of interest. The proposed method is equivalent to a parametric bootstrap percentile approach where Monte Carlo simulation is replaced by saddlepoint approximation. It finds applications in many areas of statistics including, nonlinear regression, time series analysis, inference on ratios of regression parameters in linear models and calibration. We demonstrate the method in the context of some classical examples from nonlinear regression models and ratios of regression parameter problems. Simulation results for these show that the proposed method, apart from being generally easier to implement, yields confidence intervals with lengths and coverage probabilities that compare favourably with those obtained from several competing methods proposed in the literature over the past half-century.     

关于Gauss-Weierstrass算子线性组合的加权逼近

本文研究Gauss-Weierstrass算子的一类线性组合加Jacobi权的一致逼近问题，给出了逼近的正、逆定理和逼近阶的特征刻划。     

Smoothed Histograms for Frequency Data on Irregular Intervals

Frequency tables are often constructed on intervals of irregular width. When plotted as bar charts, the underlying true density information may be quite distorted. The majority of introductory statistics texts recommend tabulating data into intervals of equal width, but seldom caution the consequences of failing to do so. An occasional introductory text correctly emphasizes that area rather than frequency should be plotted. Nevertheless, the correctly scaled density figure is often visually less informative than one might expect, with wide bins at constant height. In many cases, the right most bin interval has no well-defined end point, making its depiction some what arbitrary. In this note, we introduce a regular histogram approximation that matches the frequencies and also minimizes a roughness criterion for visual and exploratory appeal. The resulting estimate can reveal the density structure much more clearly. We also formulate an alternative criterion that explicitly takes account of the uncertainty in the bin frequencies.     

多元Ismail—May算子的一致逼近

主要给出了多元Ismail—May算子在一致逼近意义下的正、逆定理及特征刻划。