Approximate optimal allocation in repeated sampling from a finite population

Samples of size n are drawn from a finite population on each of two occasions. On the first occasion a variate x is measured, and on the second a variate y. In estimating the population mean of y, the variance of the best linear unbiased combination of means for matched and unmatched samples is itself minimized, with respect to the sampling design on the second occasion, by a certain degree of matching. This optimal allocation depends on the population correlation coefficient, which previous authors have assumed known. We estimate the correlation from an initial matched sample, then an approximately optimal allocation is completed and an estimator formed which, under a bivariate normal superpopulation model, has model expected mean square error equal, apart from an error of order n^-2, to the minimum enjoyed by any linear, unbiased estimator.     

从1929看2009,经济危机下的中国电影

1929年的美国和2009年的中国都同样处在经济危机的寒潮之下,对比二者电影业的发展状况,分析经济危机对电影业产生的诸多影响,可以看出：首先,由于＂口红效应＂的影响,中美电影在经济危机中都出现了票房的大幅攀升,特别是中国电影增长迅速;其次,危机中的电影技术都得到了进一步的发展,如同1929年声音技术的运用一样,2009年的中国电影则是3D技术崭露头角,3D电影以及3D银幕的数量激增;再次,危机中电影内容普遍具有疗伤倾向,无论是当年美国盛行的歌舞片或是2009年中国主旋律电影的商业化,无一例外;最后,从娱乐产业的更迭趋势来看,1929年美国的百老汇逐渐衰落,电影逐渐取而代之。2009年的中国则是互联网迅速发展的一年,媒介融合趋势下电影的传播介质可能也会发生相应变化。     

An exploratory analysis of composite choices: Weighing rationality versus irrationality

Humans are engineered neurologically to make rational and irrational choices. This paper introduces a new paradigm for decision making – a composite choice model – in which economic agents are constantly weighing rationality versus irrationality when encountering options. In an exploratory, deterministic, two-period model, an assumption of a two-way cross-embedment (i.e., a two-way interaction between the rational and irrational components) results in a paradoxical phenomenon, an outcome of either tending toward bliss or abyss at the end of the first period. This implies, for instance, a psychological struggle between two selves within the mind. The paradigm proposed is compared to the dual-process theories recently developed by the cognitive sciences. Future research will explore implications for public policy design and implementation.     

The Dutch people and the euro: A structural equations analysis relating national identity and economic expectations to attitude towards the euro

National identity, macro and micro economic expectations affect the attitude toward the euro. In a study in The Netherlands, data were collected and relationships between the latent concepts were modelled with LISREL. In the best fitting model, national identity has a direct and an indirect effect on attitude, respectively, an unstructured and a structured effect. The indirect effect is mediated by macro and micro expectations. Macro expectations also have a direct and an indirect effect. The indirect effect is mediated by micro expectations. On one hand, macro expectations form a strong link between national identity and attitude. On the other hand, macro expectations have a strong direct effect on attitudes. The euro is mainly perceived and evaluated in a macro-economic perspective.PsycINFO classification: 2229; 3920     

基于知识共享的虚拟R&D团队治理机制研究

虚拟R&D团队是现代电子信息技术的产物,是未来团队的发展趋势,其有效的治理机制是企业核心竞争力的保障。本文立足于知识共享的角度,对虚拟R&D团队治理中最重要的三个机制——知识管理机制、产权机制和激励机制进行分析,并提出了治理方案。     

An alternative estimator for multiple characteristics in PPS sampling

The problem considered relates to large-scale sample surveys. A new estimator of population total for the characteristics that are poorly correlated with the selection probabilities has been developed for the PPSWR sampling scheme. The relative efficiency of the proposed estimator has been studied under a super-population model. A numerical investigation into the performance of the estimator has also been made.     

PRICE‐LEVEL CHANGES AND THE REDISTRIBUTION OF NOMINAL WEALTH ACROSS THE EURO AREA

We show that unexpected price‐level movements generate sizable wealth redistribution in the Euro Area (EA), using sectoral accounts and newly available data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. The EA as a whole is a net loser of unexpected price‐level decreases, with Italy, Greece, Portugal, and Spain losing most in per capita terms, and Belgium and Malta being net winners. Governments are net losers of deflation, while the household (HH) sector is a net winner in the EA as a whole. HHs in Belgium, Ireland, Malta, and Germany experience the biggest per capita gains, while HHs in Finland and Spain turn out to be net losers. Considerable heterogeneity exists also within the HH sector: relatively young middle class HHs are net losers of deflation, while older and richer HHs are winners. As a result, wealth inequality in the EA increases with unexpected deflation, although in some countries (Austria, Germany, and Malta) inequality decreases due to the presence of relatively few young borrowing HHs. We document that HHs' inflation exposure varies systematically across countries, with HHs in high‐inflation EA countries holding systematically lower nominal exposures.     

THE DYNAMICS OF CLIMATE AGREEMENTS

This paper analyzes a framework in which countries over time pollute and invest in green technologies. Without a climate treaty, the countries pollute too much and invest too little, particularly if intellectual property rights are weak. Nevertheless, short‐term agreements on emission levels then reduce every country's payoff, since countries invest less when they anticipate future negotiations. If intellectual property rights are weak, the agreement should be tougher and more long‐term. Conversely, if the climate agreement happens to be short‐term or absent, intellectual property rights should be strengthened or technological licensing subsidized.     

控股股东持股比例对企业研发投资强度影响的实证分析

利用《中国工业企业数据库》发布的重工业企业调查数据,基于非参数回归、OLS估计以及Tobit估计的方法研究了控股股东持股比例对企业研发投资强度的影响。研究发现：控股股东持股比例对企业研发投资强度的影响存在门槛效应。股权性质（控股资本类型）、企业年龄对企业研发投资强度的影响并不显著,但企业规模对企业研发投资强度带来显著性影响。文章认为,控股股东持股比例大约保持在50%～80%左右更利于企业技术创新;企业间应加强技术创新合作以形成研发投资的规模效应。     

Emergence of entrepreneurial behaviour: The role of age-based self-image

This study introduces an individual’s perception of their entrepreneurial potential in terms of their age (age-based self-image) to complement chronological age as a predictor of entrepreneurial behaviour. The principal hypothesis is that a positive age-based self-image enhances the likelihood of individuals turning their intention to start a business into actual behaviour. The empirical analysis based on data collected on the general adult population of Finland in 2011 and 2012 (n = 672) supports this hypothesis. The analysis further shows that this positive effect is independent of the individual’s chronological age, and it is thus applicable to both age groups that are under-represented in entrepreneurship: ‘youngsters’ and ‘seniors’. Promoting the development of a positive age-based self-image is a prospective policy option for fostering entrepreneurship among younger and older age groups. More in-depth research, especially concerning the antecedents of positive age-based self-image, is required for the effectiveness of such policy interventions.