Welfare benefits and birth decisions of never-married women

For some time now, the out-of-wedlock birthrate has been increasing rapidly in the United States. This has prompted several states to propose (and in some cases, enact) legislation to deny access to higher AFDC benefits for families in which the mother gives birth while receiving AFDC. The authors investigate whether AFDC benefit levels are systematically related to the family-size decisions of never-married women. Using a bivariate probit model with state and time fixed effects, applied to Current Population Survey data for the years 1980–1988, it is found that the basic benefit level for a family of two (one adult and one child) and the incremental benefit for a second child positively affects the family size decisions of black and Hispanic women, but not of white women. The effects are concentrated among high school dropouts (no effects are found for high school graduates). The authors conclude that rather than to uniformly deny benefits to all AFDC women that bear children, a better targeted policy might be to alter the AFDC benefit structure in such a way as to encourage single mothers to complete high school. However, being a high school dropout might be a proxy for some other underlying characteristic of the woman, and encouraging women to complete high school who otherwise would not might have no effect whatsoever on nonmarital births.     

Understanding multi-methodology: Evaluating the perceived impact of mixing methods for group budgetary decisions

This paper reports on the design and implementation of a multi-methodology intervention intended to support a budget prioritisation decision by a multi-organisational group tasked with tackling the problem of teenage pregnancy in an English borough. The intervention approach involved the combined use of cognitive/causal mapping and a multi-criteria decision analysis method to develop and prioritise a number of projects aimed at alleviating issues associated with teenage pregnancy. The paper describes and discusses the process of developing and applying the intervention approach, and provides an evaluation of its perceived impact by the client group. Drawing on the rich seam of data gathered over the course of our work with the multi-organisational group, we explore the varying degrees of impact that the mapping and multi-criteria evaluation methods achieved during and after the intervention. Analysis of the intervention data suggests that both methods were perceived to facilitate a different way of thinking and learning. In addition, we find that the mapping and multi-criteria evaluation methods successfully addressed participants' democratic and rational concerns. However, despite these reported positive effects, the full recommendations of the intervention were not implemented. An attempt is made to explain this outcome in terms of both the multi-organisational context within which the intervention took place and the nature of the group task. Directions for further research are then proposed.     

基于结构方程模型的家用轿车购买决策行为实证研究

从当前家用轿车购买决策中存在的问题出发,针对传统研究家用轿车决策行为的不足,结合结构方程模型的原理,构建了家用轿车购买决策行为评价指标体系和评价模型,并进行了实证研究。结果表明,通过该模型可以为消费者制定家用轿车购买决策提供一种新的思路,从而使其决策更加科学和合理。     

Affirmative Action in Higher Education: How Do Admission and Financial Aid Rules Affect Future Earnings?

This paper addresses how changing the admission and financial aid rules at colleges affects future earnings. I estimate a structural model of the following decisions by individuals: where to submit applications, which school to attend, and what field to study. The model also includes decisions by schools as to which students to accept and how much financial aid to offer. Simulating how black educational choices would change were they to face the white admission and aid rules shows that race‐based advantages had little effect on earnings. However, removing race‐based advantages does affect black educational outcomes. In particular, removing advantages in admissions substantially decreases the number of black students at top‐tier schools, while removing advantages in financial aid causes a decrease in the number of blacks who attend college.     

企业现金流量影响因素剖析

以收付实现制为基础的现金流量信息能够全面、真实地反映企业财务状况及未来获取现金和现金等价物的能力,深受会计信息使用者的青睐。影响现金流量的因素是多重的,有来自于企业内部的因素,也有来自于外部的因素。作为信息源的企业应认真剖析影响现金流量的因素,努力达到现金流量最优化、最大化。     

基于科学发展观基层党组织建设的思考

党的十七届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于加强和改进新形势下党的建设的若干重大问题的决定》,对今后一个时期党的建设提出了一系列新的要求和新的举措。党支部作为党的基层组织,要认真学习实践科学发展观,转变基层党建的观念;发挥党员主体作用,增强基层党建的实效;认真落实长效机制,强化基层党建的基础,为科学发展提供可靠的政治和组织保障。     

论税收筹划的形成机制与实现手段

契约理论及税费的差异性决定了企业具有强烈的减税动机.而减税动机是否能最终体现为企业的税收筹划行为,则主要取决于企业所处的外部环境.企业可通过筹资、投资及经营等方面的财务决策实现税收筹划.引导企业开展税收筹划,有助于更充分地发挥税收的杠杆作用.     

A Comparison of the Cost-efficiencies of the Sequential, Group-sequential, and Variable-sample-size-sequential Probability Ratio Tests

Wald and Wolfowitz (1948) have shown that the Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) for deciding between two simple hypotheses is, under very restrictive conditions, optimal in three attractive senses. First, it can be a Bayes-optimal rule. Second, of all level α tests having the same power, the test with the smallest joint-expected number of observations is the SPRT, where this expectation is taken jointly with respect to both data and prior over the two hypotheses. Third, the level α test needing the fewest conditional-expected number of observat ions is the SPRT, where this expectation is now taken with respect to the data conditional on either hypothesis being true. Principal among the strong restrictions is that sampling can proceed only in a one-at-a-time manner. In this paper, we relax some of the conditions and show that there are sequential procedures that strictly dominate the SPRT in all three senses. We conclude that the third type of optimality occurs rarely and that decision-makers are better served by looking for sequential procedures that possess the first two types of optimality. By relaxing the one-at-a-time sampling restriction, we obtain optimal (in the first two senses) variable-s ample-size- sequential probability ratio tests.     

Exploring the Effects of Cultural Variables in the Implementation of Behavior-Based Safety in Two Organizations

Abstract

The present case study examines how culture can influence behavior-based safety in different organizational settings and how behavior-based safety can impact different organizational cultures. Behavior-based safety processes implemented in two culturally diverse work settings are described. Specifically, despite identical implementation plans, similarities and differences in the actual implementation of the two behavior-based safety processes are presented with an emphasis on the effects of employee-driven decisions. Data on both implementations and outcome measures are provided. The results are discussed with respect to the potential impact of specific cultural variables.     

Postponement implementation in integrated production and inventory plan under deterioration effects: a case study of a juice producer with limited storage capacity

Abstract

The aim of this study is to develop a production and inventory plan for a fresh apple juice producer. During harvest season, the producer extracts premium juice from freshly picked apples and keeps an inventory of these premium apples in his temperature-controlled storage facility. The producer extracts also regular juice from regular apples purchased from third-party storages. To satisfy future demand, the producer carries inventories of juice and apple. The levels of apple inventories are constrained by the producer’s limited storage space, but he can replenish regular apples. To assist the producer in facing demand uncertainty and deterioration of apples, we develop a production and inventory plan that incorporates postponement to mitigate demand uncertainty. As postponement decisions are shaped by the cost structure of inventories, we integrate in one model the postponement decisions and the deterioration mitigation decisions that can alter the inventory costs. We build multi-period stochastic programming with recourse model to determine juice batch sizes and apple inventories that maximize the producer’s expected profit. The optimal solution illustrates the use of time and form postponements. We discuss the interactions between postponement implementation and decisions to mitigate apples deterioration. We compare the production and inventory plans with and without postponement and with and without apple deterioration. We also present sensitivity analyses for the plan under varying inventory cost and storage space.