Estimation in multiple linear regression Berkson model for processes with uncorrelated increments

This paper presents a method of estimating the regression and variance parameters in the multiple linear regression Berkson model for a continuous-time stochastic process with uncorrelated increments. Under minimal conditions, we establish (i) the Gauss–Markov theorem and the quadratic mean—as well as the strong consistency of the proposed estimate of the regression parameter and (ii) the weak consistency of the proposed estimate of the variance parameter.     

Gender differences in risk behaviour in financial decision-making: An experimental analysis

This paper examines whether gender differences in risk propensity and strategy in financial decision-making can be viewed as general traits, or whether they arise because of context factors. It presents the results of two computerised laboratory experiments designed to examine whether differences in risk preference and decision strategies are explained by the framing of tasks and level of task familiarity to subjects. The results show that females are less risk seeking than males irrespective of familiarity and framing, costs or ambiguity. The results also indicate that males and females adopt different strategies in financial decision environments but that these strategies have no significant impact on ability to perform. Because strategies are more easily observed than either risk preference or outcomes in day to day decisions, strategy differences may reinforce stereotypical beliefs that females are less able financial managers.     

Stages of Supply Chain Disruption Response: Direct,Constraining, and Mediating Factors for Impact Mitigation

It is well established that supply chain disruptions can have a severe negative impact on firms and general wisdom suggests that this impact can be mitigated by quick responses. Aside from a few anecdotes, however, little is known about the decision‐making process that leads to speedy responses and about its impeding and supporting antecedents. Using the organizational information‐processing perspective, this empirical study unravels the disruption management process along a sequence of four stages—disruption recognition, disruption diagnosis, response development, and response implementation—and hypothesizes constraining and mediating effects of these stages. The findings contribute to an improved understanding of the role that the decision stages play in mitigating supply chain disruptions, and confirm the prediction that the speed with which information is processed and the stages are worked through positively affects supply chain performance. In addition, the findings suggest that one of the stages, diagnosis, acts as a constraining factor to the other stages. The stages also play a mediating role between the impact that the disruption has and a firm's readiness (prior to a disruption), dependence on a key supplier, and supply chain complexity. This provides guidance to decision makers in the application of resources both prior to a negative event and during a disruption recovery.     

Modeling Values for Anti-Terrorism Analysis

Decisions are made to achieve objectives. A qualitative list of the objectives for a decision is the foundation for a value model that unambiguously represents objectives in a quantitative manner. The objectives guide thinking and the value model provides a basis for analyzing alternatives to best meet the desired objectives. This article illustrates the usefulness of clearly identifying objectives and developing value models to support anti-terrorism analysis. It outlines procedures to develop value models for the Department of Homeland Security and for terrorist organizations. The later is useful to both design anti-terrorism alternatives and suggest possible terrorist priorities and actions. An example that develops a terrorist value model for the theft and misuse of plutonium is presented. Several uses of value models for anti-terrorist activities are discussed and suggestions for developing such value models are outlined.     

The Costs of Future Polio Risk Management Policies

Decisionmakers need information about the anticipated future costs of maintaining polio eradication as a function of the policy options under consideration. Given the large portfolio of options, we reviewed and synthesized the existing cost data relevant to current policies to provide context for future policies. We model the expected future costs of different strategies for continued vaccination, surveillance, and other costs that require significant potential resource commitments. We estimate the costs of different potential policy portfolios for low-, middle-, and high-income countries to demonstrate the variability in these costs. We estimate that a global transition from routine immunization with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) would increase the costs of managing polio globally, although routine IPV use remains less costly than routine OPV use with supplemental immunization activities. The costs of surveillance and a stockpile, while small compared to routine vaccination costs, represent important expenditures to ensure adequate response to potential outbreaks. The uncertainty and sensitivity analyses highlight important uncertainty in the aggregated costs and demonstrates that the discount rate and uncertainty in price and administration cost of IPV drives the expected incremental cost of routine IPV vs. OPV immunization.     

Development and Consideration of Global Policies for Managing the Future Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks: Insights and Lessons Learned Through Modeling

The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes.     

What Can Decision Analysis Do for Invasive Species Management?

Decisions about management of invasive species are difficult for all the reasons typically addressed by multiattribute decision analysis: uncertain outcomes, multiple and conflicting objectives, and many interested parties with differing views on both facts and values. This article illustrates how the tools of multiattribute analysis can improve management of invasive species, with an emphasis on making explicit the social values and preferences that must inform invasive species management. Risk assessment protocols developed previously for invasive species management typically suffer from two interacting flaws: (1) separating risk assessment from risk management, thus disrupting essential connections between the social values at stake in invasive species decisions and the scientific knowledge necessary to predict the likely impacts of management actions, and (2) relying on expert judgment about risk framed in qualitative and value-laden terms, inadvertently mixing the expert's judgment about what is likely to happen with personal preferences. Using the values structuring and probability-modeling elements of formal decision analysis can remedy these difficulties and make invasive species management responsive to both good science and public values. The management of feral pigs in Hawaiian ecosystems illustrates the need for such an integrated approach.     

初论国民经济动员学的研究纲领

国民经济动员学科的建立,关键在于确立其研究纲领。笔者主张以借鉴决策理论学派的成果为主,兼及现代管理理论各学派中对国民经济动员学科建设有益的理论观点,通过对国民经济动员活动的深入考察,面向国民经济动员实践的需要,通过创造性思维,建立国民经济动员学的管理学研究纲领。目前,应当首先从国民经济动员潜力评价和国民经济动员决策支持系统两个方面入手,形成科学研究的突破口,迅速积累研究成果,完善国民经济动员学科体系。     

A reverse sunk cost effect in risky decision making: Sometimes we have too much invested to gamble

The sunk cost effect refers to the empirical finding that people tend to let their decisions be influenced by costs made at an earlier time in such a way that they are more risk seeking than they would be had they not made these costs. This finding seems to be in conflict with economic theory which implies that only incremental costs and benefits should affect decisions. The effect is often explained in terms of prospect theory of (Kahneman, D., Tversky, A., 1979. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47, 263–291), suggesting that sunk costs may induce a ‘loss frame,’ consequently causing risk seeking behavior. We argue that sunk costs may also result in risk aversion. In the present study we investigated the effect of time and effort investments (Behavioral Sunk Costs) on risky decision making in gain and loss situations. The results show that, in agreement with prospect theory, participants were more risk averse in gain situations than in loss situations. Moreover, incurring Behavioral Sunk Costs appeared to increase risk aversive choices, i.e., a reverse sunk cost effect. Furthermore, the results suggest that, in loss situations, Behavioral Sunk Costs mainly lead to risk aversive behavior if opting for the ‘safe’ alternative is not accompanied by an increased possibility to regret the decision.     

Antecendents and effects of decision comprehensiveness: The role of decision quality and perceived uncertainty

On the basis of a sample of 184 top executives, we investigated the roles of decision quality and perceived uncertainty in the relationship between decision comprehensiveness and performance. Our results show that decision quality mediates a large proportion of the comprehensiveness–performance relationship and may thus provide a more proximate outcome measure of the effect of comprehensiveness. In addition, we found that perceived uncertainty directly affects the level of comprehensiveness in organizations rather than moderating its effect on performance as conceptualized by previous research. Based on the integration of behavioral and information processing theories we suggest that more process-oriented measures such as decision quality and perceived uncertainty may overcome conflicting empirical results in the field.