魏晋嬗代史事探微

魏晋嬗代一直是学界关注的重点,讨论颇多。本文在前人研究的基础上,通过对魏晋嬗代过程中一些关键事件和人物的考订,分析了司马懿发动高平陵之变的原因和依靠的主要力量。对司马师在魏晋嬗代中的作用和功业进行了考证和阐释,并对齐王攸地位的形成过程提出了新的解释。     

A step-by-step guide to the identification of an appropriate computer-aided production management system

The increasing dissatisfaction of users with their Computer-aided production management (CAPM) systems has been widely reported. This dissatisfaction led the UK's Science and Engineering Research Council to initiate a major study to improve CAPM systems use. The research results presented here form part of the overall initiative and focus on the development of a set of guiding principles for companies seeking to implement appropriate CAPM systems. The research team have identified three key elements that must be considered when implementing a CAPM system. First, that CAPM implementation can be eased if the overall manufacturing-system is first simplified. Second, we recognize that even then most companies will still require a computerized solution thus any methodology must include a software specification. Third, the overall performance of the system may be enhanced by changes to the infrastructure that supports the software. In attempting to meet these requirements the research team developed a four-stage methodology. The first two stages of the methodology deal primarily with the strategic context for CAPM, i.e. the simplification. The last two stages develop a software specification and present guidelines for the development of appropriate infrastructure configurations.     

Changing your role models: Social learning and the Engel curve

By relating Engel curves and social learning, we explain the existence of differently shaped Engel curves—an interesting phenomenon in the theory of demand. A formal approach to cultural learning within a population of consumers accounts for some cognitive foundations of these demand patterns. We find that a changing influence of an individual's role models due to her increasing income, which entails new reference groups providing social identity, leads to the diffusion of new consumption behaviors. Thereby, the resulting Engel curves’ shape depends on the underlying learning dynamics. The approach contributes to an explanation of structural change and economic development.     

中国步入人口老龄化社会的经济学思考

按国际划分标准,一个国家如果60岁以上的老年人或65岁以上的老年人在总人口中的比例如果分别超过了10%或7%的话,即可看作达到了人口老龄化。中国的人口老龄化的势头正在引起全世界关注。当21世纪钟声敲响的时候,我国已经进入人口老龄型国家。目前我国老年人口有1.3亿,占世界老年人口的五分之一,并且继续以年均3.2%的速度递增。预计到2010年,我国的老年人口将达到2.3亿。到2040年,我国老年人口将达到4亿,占总人口的1/4。发展老年产业是关乎构建和谐社会、维系社会安定以及弘扬中华民族优良传统的大事业,迫在眉睫。     

我国未来中长期劳动力需求预测

本文结合经济预测,对我国未来中长期2010-2050年劳动力需求进行了定量预测。预测结果表明,随着经济增长方式的转变、劳动生产率的提高,我国未来劳动力需求有下降的趋势,但下降比较缓慢,而我国劳动力供给量在＂十二五＂期间达到顶峰后会迅速下降,2016年后我国劳动力市场将可能长期面临劳动力短缺问题。     

供应链分析与基本竞争战略的选择

本文在分析产品需求特性的基础上,指出企业供应链的选择必须与其产品需求特性相适应,进而说明企业基本竞争战略选择与实施的前提首先是对产品需求特性进行明确定位,其次是必须有与此相对应的供应链,才能保证基本竞争战略的有效实施。     

Managing Supply Risk for Vertically Differentiated Co‐Products

The manufacturing complexity of many high‐tech products results in a substantial variation in the quality of the units produced. After manufacturing, the units are classified into vertically differentiated products. These products are typically obtained in uncontrollable fractions, leading to mismatches between their demand and supply. We focus on product stockouts due to the supply–demand mismatches. Existing literature suggests that when faced with product stockouts, firms should satisfy all unmet demand of a low‐end product by downgrading excess units of a high‐end product (downward substitution). However, this policy may be suboptimal if it is likely that low‐end customers will substitute with a higher quality product and pay the higher price (upward substitution). In this study, we investigate whether and how much downward substitution firms should perform. We also investigate whether and how much low‐end inventory firms should withhold to strategically divert some low‐end demand to the high‐end product. We first establish the existence of regions of co‐production technology and willingness of customers to substitute upward where firms adopt different substitution/withholding strategies. Then, we develop a managerial framework to determine the optimal selling strategy during the life cycle of technology products as profit margins shrink, manufacturing technology improves, and more capacity becomes available. Consistent trends exist for exogenous and endogenous prices.     

考虑产品可替换的再制造产品选择决策

再制造是处理回收产品的一种重要方式.本文研究了一种简单的产品可替换的再制造决策模型,再制造商生产的产品有高质量和低质量两种,高质量的再制造产品数量超过需求量时,可以作为低质量产品的替换品销售.最后通过仿真算例说明了产品可替换策略比不可替换具有优势.     

基于消费者隐性需求的营销模式研究策略

消费者隐性需求的相关理论和实践研究逐渐受到国内外学者的重视,这对于营销理论的再造和营销学的演进具有一定的理论价值。本文从营销范式的演进规律归纳得出,营销范式的转换归根结底源于隐性需求的开发。在此基础上,对传统营销模式及营销组合对隐性需求研究的普适性进行了检验,并探讨了基于隐性需求的4Vs营销模式及其现实意义。     

保险需求悖论的解释——来自中国汽车险市场的实证研究

经典的保险需求模型认为绝对风险规避系数递减时保险是一个劣质品,也就是说保险需求会随着财富水平的上升而下降,但这一结论与许多现实的保险行为不符。本文从损失和财富的关系角度出发对经典模型进行了扩展,讨论了在损失随财富变化时的保险需求变化,对保险需求的悖论进行了解释。论文还采用国内汽车险市场的微观数据对拓展模型进行了实证研究,结果显示车险投保人的个人财富与其所选择的保险金额、投保比率以及索赔金额之间存在着显著的正相关关系,检验表明模型的假设和结论具有很好的解释现实的能力。