A method for combining inference across related nonparametric Bayesian models

Summary.  We consider the problem of combining inference in related nonparametric Bayes models. Analogous to parametric hierarchical models, the hierarchical extension formalizes borrowing strength across the related submodels. In the nonparametric context, modelling is complicated by the fact that the random quantities over which we define the hierarchy are infinite dimensional. We discuss a formal definition of such a hierarchical model. The approach includes a regression at the level of the nonparametric model. For the special case of Dirichlet process mixtures, we develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme to allow efficient implementation of full posterior inference in the given model.     

Structuring Supplier Involvement in New Product Development: A China–U.S. Study

Buying and supplying organizations rely on each other for developing better products in an efficient manner, which explains the popularity of involving suppliers in new product development (NPD). However, such involvement is not always successful, partially due to the challenges of structuring a buyer–supplier team to manage joint dependence and dependence asymmetry. This study adopts an organizational dependence view to examine how three types of intergroup structures—administrative (formalization and centralization), task (task interdependence), and physical (colocation)—influence project performance and buyer learning in NPD projects. Furthermore, adopting a contingency theory perspective, we study whether the national context moderates the effects of intergroup structures on project outcomes. We adopt a two‐group structural equation modeling approach to test hypotheses with survey responses from a sample of NPD projects in the United States (US) and China. Results show different ways in which intergroup structures influence project performance and buyer learning in the two culturally, economically, and institutionally distinct countries. We discuss the implications of these new findings and present directions for future research.     

扶贫制度与制度效率

论述了扶贫制度的制度效率的重要意义,叙述了制度经济学中关于制度效率的学术思想和观念,对扶贫制度的制度效率进行了分析,指出有效率的贫困制度所要具有的三个方面的原则,最后提出要进一步探索具体提高制度效率的可能遵循的路径方法,解决贫困问题实现国家建设和谐社会的目标.     

中美日印对中南半岛国家影响力的测度与分析

制衡中国在中南半岛国家的影响力是美国、日本、印度等域外大国介入中南半岛国家事务的主要战略目标.科学合理地测度中国和域外大国在中南半岛国家影响力的变化,既是对中国崛起所处地缘环境准确认识的需要,也是中国周边地缘关系研究的重要议题.本文基于国家间实力比例关系和不对称依赖关系,构建了国家对外影响力模型,定量测度了2000~2018年中美日印四国对中南半岛国家影响力.研究结果表明:第一,中国对中南半岛国家影响力呈持续上升趋势,美国和日本总体上呈下降趋势,印度相对稳定;第二,中国对老挝和缅甸的影响力在2012年和2016年均出现了下降,同时期的美国、日本和印度对老挝和缅甸的影响力并没有提升,表明中国与美日印对中南半岛国家影响力变化并不存在“我降—你升”的逻辑关系;第三,美日印三国在体系和战略层面给中国对外影响力带来了一些压力,在中南半岛国家层面上对中国影响力提升的影响有限;第四,国家间实力地位高低是决定国家对外影响力大小的主导因素,不对称依赖中获得的影响力大小是决定国家对外影响力大小的制约因素.     

On the expected discounted penalty function for a risk model with dependence under a multi-layer dividend strategy

In this article, we consider a dependent risk model in the presence of a multi-laydividend strategy. We construct the dependence structure between the claim size and interclaim time by a Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern copula. A piecewise integro-differential equations for the expected discounted penalty function with boundary conditions are established. A renewal equation satisfied by the expected discounted penalty function is obtained via the translation operator. Then, we provide a recursive approach to derive the analytical solution of the expected discounted penalty function. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the solution procedure.     

On a bivariate Kumaraswamy type exponential distribution

ABSTRACT

This paper considers a class of absolutely continuous bivariate exponential distributions whose univariate margins are the ordinary exponential distributions. We study different mathematical properties of the proposed model. The estimation of the parameters by maximum likelihood is discussed. Application is made to a real data example to illustrate the flexibility of theproposed distribution for data analysis.     

The effect of dependence in a binary sequence on tests for a changepoint or a changed segment

The effect of partial dependence in a binary sequence on tests for the presence of a changepoint or changed segment are investigated and exemplified in the context of modelling non-coding deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA). For the levels of dependence that are commonly seen in such DNA, the null distributions of the test statistics are approximately correct and so conclusions based on them are still valid. A strong dependence would, however, invalidate the use of such procedures.     

青少年网络依赖的成因及干预策略

当前我国有5％～10％的青少年过度使用网络,形成网络依赖心理。网络依赖主要是一种心理依赖,比一般的上瘾现象有着更为复杂的心理成因和独特的特点。青少年形成网络依赖,有家庭、学校、青少年个人和网络本身等原因,因此青少年网络依赖干预模式应是多样化的、个别的、具体的,对青少年网络依赖的干预应是多层面的、多层次的、整体的。     

对外技术依存度若干问题研究

对外技术依存度是我国衡量自主创新能力的指标之一。但从现有的测算方法看还存在着一定的问题。本文依据技术国际收支数据讨论了测算方法的改进,并认为对外技术依存度的标准不能一刀切,对发达地区和欠发达地区应建立不同的标准。     

经济民族主义的理论品质

经济民族主义出于忠诚的民族意识和民族感情,在全球范围内追逐增进民族利益的权力和财富。它通过国家权力制定相应的经济战略,保护、壮大民族经济并为民族经济的对外扩张赢得市场和资源,争取有利于自身发展的世界经济机制和秩序。重商主义与经济自由主义的结合是经济民族主义的重大理论特征,依附论是当代重要的经济民族主义理论代表。"积极的经济民族主义"是经济全球化与经济民族主义和谐共融的关键。