鲁迅对文化转型的探求与焦虑

本文对当前某些试图颠覆鲁迅的观点提出质疑，认为鲁迅对近代中国文化转型有独特的探求，也有不应忽视的焦虑，有时表现为传统批判中的偏激。应了解“偏激”的语境和历史理由，同时看到鲁迅还有对传统积极传承的另一面，国民性批判出于启蒙需要，绝非丑化国人，而是极可贵的民族自省，鲁迅对民主，平等，科学等流行观念均有前瞻性的独立思考，他提出应警惕过分崇奉物质带来的现代文明病，至今仍有启示意义。     

Unmet Home Care Service Needs of Rural Older Adults With Alzheimer's Disease: A Perspective of Informal Caregivers

This study assessed unmet service needs of rural older adults with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and identified factors that were related to these needs. Data were collected from 109 informal caregivers of AD patients. Over half of the patients experienced unmet service needs in 1 or more areas of activities of daily functioning. Informal caregiver burden and patient's gender and functional status were significantly related to patients' unmet service needs. Patients' use of formal services was marginally related to their unmet service needs. To better address patients' service needs, a comprehensive needs assessment should be conducted with both patients and their caregivers.     

EDITORIAL

Abstract

Alzheimers Disease is a form of progressive dementia associated with diffuse degeneration of the brain, and has become more common in Hong Kong as the population has aged. Individuals with Alzheimers Disease may experience symptoms such as memory loss, poor judgement, and incontinence. They generally lack selfcare ability and require considerable care as their illness progresses. As the traditional caring function of Chinese families has been eroded, individuals with the disease pose new challenges to their family caregivers. Research using an intensive interview method revealed that family caregivers of people with Alzheimers Disease suffer heavy psychosocial, financial, and physical burdens.     

猪呼吸道疾病综合症及防控对策探讨

猪呼吸道疾病综合症是由多种疾病因素引起猪的呼吸道疾病的总称。分析探讨了猪呼吸道疾病综合症的发病原因与症状特征,提出加强饲养管理、改善饲养环境、科学免疫以及建立科学合理的药物治疗方案等相应对策与防治措施。     

Regression modelling of weighted κ by using generalized estimating equations

In many clinical studies more than one observer may be rating a characteristic measured on an ordinal scale. For example, a study may involve a group of physicians rating a feature seen on a pathology specimen or a computer tomography scan. In clinical studies of this kind, the weighted κ coefficient is a popular measure of agreement for ordinally scaled ratings. Our research stems from a study in which the severity of inflammatory skin disease was rated. The investigators wished to determine and evaluate the strength of agreement between a variable number of observers taking into account patient-specific (age and gender) as well as rater-specific (whether board certified in dermatology) characteristics. This suggested modelling κ as a function of these covariates. We propose the use of generalized estimating equations to estimate the weighted κ coefficient. This approach also accommodates unbalanced data which arise when some subjects are not judged by the same set of observers. Currently an estimate of overall κ for a simple unbalanced data set without covariates involving more than two observers is unavailable. In the inflammatory skin disease study none of the covariates were significantly associated with κ, thus enabling the calculation of an overall weighted κ for this unbalanced data set. In the second motivating example (multiple sclerosis), geographic location was significantly associated with κ. In addition we also compared the results of our method with current methods of testing for heterogeneity of weighted κ coefficients across strata (geographic location) that are available for balanced data sets.     

高粱黑穗病抵抗性研究

采用人工土壤接菌方法分别接种２０个品种，１５个杂交种，４５个杂交种亲本。结果表明：不同血缘、不同用途、不同栽培技术高粱抗病性不同。大多数有国外血缘的、饲用的、栽培措施合理的高粱抗病性强，是高粱育种的研究方向。     

Comparison of disease prevalence in two populations under double-sampling scheme with two fallible classifiers

A disease prevalence can be estimated by classifying subjects according to whether they have the disease. When gold-standard tests are too expensive to be applied to all subjects, partially validated data can be obtained by double-sampling in which all individuals are classified by a fallible classifier, and some of individuals are validated by the gold-standard classifier. However, it could happen in practice that such infallible classifier does not available. In this article, we consider two models in which both classifiers are fallible and propose four asymptotic test procedures for comparing disease prevalence in two groups. Corresponding sample size formulae and validated ratio given the total sample sizes are also derived and evaluated. Simulation results show that (i) Score test performs well and the corresponding sample size formula is also accurate in terms of the empirical power and size in two models; (ii) the Wald test based on the variance estimator with parameters estimated under the null hypothesis outperforms the others even under small sample sizes in Model II, and the sample size estimated by this test is also accurate; (iii) the estimated validated ratios based on all tests are accurate. The malarial data are used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.     

Methods for eliciting aetiological clues from geographically clustered cases of disease, with application to leukaemia–lymphoma data

The nearest neighbour analysis method has been developed to determine whether a disease case may be regarded as being unusually close to other neighbouring cases of the same disease. Using this method, each disease case is classified as spatially 'clustered' or 'non-clustered'. The method is also used to provide a test for global clustering. 'Clusters' are constructed by amalgamating geographically neighbouring clustered cases into one contiguous 'cluster area'. This paper describes a method for studying differences between clustered and non-clustered cases, in terms of case 'attributes'. These attributes may be person related, such as age and sex, or area based, such as geographical isolation. The area-based variables are subject to geographical correlation. The comparison of clustered and non-clustered cases may reveal similarities or differences, which may, in turn, give clues to disease aetiology. A method for studying 'linkage' or similarities in attributes between cases that occur in the same clusters is also described. The methods are illustrated by application to incidence data for leukaemias and lymphomas.     

Screening for prostate cancer by using random-effects models

Summary. Random-effects models are used to screen male participants in a long-term longitudinal study for prostate cancer. By using posterior probabilities, each male can be classified into one of four diagnostic states for prostate disease: normal, benign prostatic hyperplasia, local cancer and metastatic cancer. Repeated measurements of prostate-specific antigen, collected when there was no clinical evidence of prostate disease, are used in the classification process. An individual's screening data are considered one repeated measurement at a time as his data are collected longitudinally over time. Posterior probabilities are calculated on the basis of data from other individuals with confirmed diagnoses of each of the four diagnostic states.     

Environmental Surveillance System Characteristics and Impacts on Confidence About No Undetected Serotype 1 Wild Poliovirus Circulation

Surveillance for poliovirus during the polio endgame remains uncertain. Building on prior modeling of the potential for undetected poliovirus transmission for conditions like those in Pakistan and Afghanistan, we use a hypothetical model to explore several key characteristics of the poliovirus environmental surveillance (ES) system (e.g., number and quality of sites, catchment sizes, and sampling frequency) and characterize their impacts on the time required to reach high (i.e., 95%) confidence about no circulation (CNC95%) following the last detected case of serotype 1 wild poliovirus. The nature and quality of the existing and future acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance and ES system significantly impact the estimated CNC95% for places like Pakistan and Afghanistan. The analysis illustrates the tradeoffs between number of sites, sampling frequency, and catchments sizes, and suggests diminishing returns of increasing these three factors beyond a point that depends on site quality and the location of sites. Limitations in data quality and the hypothetical nature of the model reduce the ability to assess the extent to which actual ES systems offer benefits that exceed their costs. Thus, although poliovirus ES may help to reduce the time required to reach high confidence about the absence of undetected circulation, the effect strongly depends on the ability to establish effective ES sites in high‐risk areas. The costs and benefits of ES require further analysis.